The Bottom Line
Focuses this week are on central bank announcements on Wednesday. The FOMC and Bank of Canada are expected to lower their lending rate to major banks by 0.25%. Stock and bond prices during the past two week in September have moved higher in anticipation of the change.
A word of caution! U.S. equity indices have a 50 year history of moving lower during the last two week in September. Weakness during this period ultimately provides a “buy on weakness” opportunity prior to release of third quarter corporate results. Technical analysis data shows that the S&P 500 Index currently is highly overbought and vulnerable to following its historic short term seasonal pattern. Corporate news releases during this period are low: Most corporations are in their “black out” period prior to release of quarterly results.
Expect higher than average volume on North American equity markets before and on “Triple Witching Day” on Friday.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Higher than consensus fiscal second quarter results prompted analysts to increase earnings and revenue estimates slightly last week
Consensus for third quarter earnings gains increased to 7.6% from 7.5%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth increased to 6.2% from 6.1%.
Consensus for fourth quarter earnings and revenue gains also increased slightly: Earnings growth increased to 7.3% from 7.2% and revenue growth increased to 6.4% from 6.3%.
For all of 2025, consensus for earnings growth increased to 10.7% from 10.6%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 6.1% from 6.0%.
Consensus for first quarter 2026 earnings growth increased to 11.6% from 11.5%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 7.1%.
Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings growth increased to 12.5% from 12.3%. Consensus for revenue growth remained at 6.3%.
For all of 2026, earnings growth increased to 13.7% from 13.6%. Consensus for revenue growth remained at 6.5%.
Economic News This Week
September Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday is expected to drop to 4.30 from 11.90 in August.
August U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.5% gain in July. Excluding auto sales, August Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.3% gain in July.
August Canadian Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a 0.3% gain in July
August U.S. Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to slip to 77.4% from 77.5% in July. August U.S. Industrial Production is expected to be unchanged versus a 0.1% drop in July.
July U.S. Business Inventories released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.2% increase in June.
August U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to slip to 1.360 million from1.428 million units in July.
Bank of Canada decision on interest rates is released at 9:45 AM EDT on Wednesday. Consensus calls for a 0.25% drop in the rate to 2.50 % offered to major Canadian banks. Press conference is scheduled at 10:30 AM EDT
FOMC decision on interest rates is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday. Consensus calls for a drop in the Fed Fund Rate from 4.50% to 4.25%. Press conference is scheduled at 2:30 PM.
September Philly Fed Manufacturing Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to improve to 1.4 from -0.3 in August
August U.S. Leading Economic Indicators released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to drop 0.1 versus a 0.1% drop in July.
July Canadian Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to drop 0.6% versus a 1.5% gain in June. Excluding auto sales, July Canadian Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 1.9% increase in June.
Selected Earnings Reports This Week
Another quiet week! Only five S&P 500 companies and no TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report.
Changes last week
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 12th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 12th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 12th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for September 13th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Hap Sneddon on BNN’s Market Call on Friday
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/markets/2025/09/12/hap-sneddons-top-picks-for-september-12-2025/
S&P Continues into Record Territory: Mark Lebovit
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/09/sp-continues-into-record-territory-mark-leibovit/
CNBC’s Rick Santelli on what the latest inflation data spells for Fed policy
CNBC’s Rick Santelli on what the latest inflation data spells for Fed policy – YouTube
Expect 75-bps cuts in Canada and U.S.: Davis
Expect 75-bps cuts in Canada and U.S.: Davis – YouTube
ETF inflows continue at blistering pace: Grimba
ETF inflows continue at blistering pace: Grimba – YouTube
Understanding the job loss cycle: Danielle Park
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/09/understanding-the-job-loss-cycle/
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 9/12/25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jyiuuC97pA
IEA Shifts on Oil Demand Outlook: What It Means for Energy Investors: Nine Point Partners
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pr2DxxjTMIY
AI Stocks Pop…These Areas Not! Mary Ellen McGonagle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Li1YStZb-VQ
Energy Crisis or Opportunity? Oil & Gas at a Crossroads
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Li1YStZb-VQ
This Winter Will Be Truly Insane…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxymIc0HYPw
Technical Notes for Friday
Consumer Discretionary SPDRs (XLY) moved above $238.66 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Micron (MU) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $156.66 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Medtronic (MDT) an S&P 100 stock moved above $94.71 to a three year high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Tesla (TSLA) an S&P 100 stock moved above $367.71 extending an intermediate uptrend
Boeing (BA) a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $215.90 completing a double top pattern.
Alibaba (ABAB) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $144.79 to a four year high extending an intermediate uptrend. Leading Chinese tech stocks higher!
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 3.80 on Friday, but added 1.00 last week to 61.40. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer dropped 2.80 on Friday and dropped 1.80 last week. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.48 on Friday and gained 1.77 last week to 73.81. It remains Overbought. Daily trend remains up.
The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and added 0.40 last week to 73.81. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications