The Bottom Line
“Sell on Rosh Hashanah, buy on Yom Kippur”: Ancient Jewish saying related to U.S. equity markets! It predicts a brief period of seasonal weakness for the S&P 500 Index. This year, the period is from Monday September 22nd to Wednesday October 1st. The saying coincides closely with a 50 year study by www.EquityClock.com showing that the weakest 10 day period in the year for the S&P 500 Index occurs during the next 10 days.
What about this year? A flood of U.S. economic news released on Thursday and Friday as well as a possible shutdown of the U.S. federal government will be watched closely to confirm/deny the pattern this year.
Headline released at www.MarketWatch.com on Friday:
“With the U.S. Senate’s attempt at a stopgap spending measure failing on Friday, parts of the federal government will shut down on Oct. 1 if Congress can’t pass a funding deal before then. What would that mean for the stock market?” As of Friday, chances of a shutdown were estimated at 56%.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analysts increased earnings and revenue estimates slightly last week.
Consensus for third quarter 2025 earnings gains increased to 7.7% from 7.6%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth increased to 6.3% from 6.2%.
Consensus for fourth quarter 2025 earnings also increased slightly: Earnings growth increased to 7.4% from 7.3%. Revenue growth remained at 6.4%.
For all of 2025, consensus for earnings growth remained at 10.7%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 6.1%.
Consensus for first quarter 2026 earnings growth remained at 11.6%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 7.1%.
Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings growth increased to 12.6% from 12.5%. Consensus for revenue growth increased to 6.4% from 6.3%.
For all of 2026, earnings growth remained at 13.7%. Consensus for revenue growth remained at 6.5%.
Economic News This Week
Bank of Canada’s Maclem speaks at 2:15 PM EDT
August U.S. New Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to slip to 650,000 units from 652,000 units in July.
August U.S. Durable Goods Orders released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to drop 0.5% versus a 2.8% drop in July.
Annualized Second Quarter U.S. GDP update for the second quarter released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to remain unchanged at 3.3% versus a 0.5% drop in the first quarter.
August U.S. Existing Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to slip to 3.95 million units from 4.01 million units in July.
August PCE Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.3% versus 0.2% increase in July. On a year-over year basis, consensus is a 2.7% increase versus a 2.6% increase in July. August Core PCE Price Index is expected to increase 0.2% versus 0.3% in July. On a year-over-year basis consensus is a 2.9% increase versus 2.9% increase in July.
August U.S. Personal Income released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% increase in July. August Personal Spending is expected to increase 0.5% versus a 0.5% gain in July.
August Canadian GDP released at 8:30 AM EDT is expected to increase 0.1% versus a 0.1% drop in July.
Michigan August Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to be unchanged from July at 55.4.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Quiet week! Only seven S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report. No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 19th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 19th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 19th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Notes for Friday
Software iShares (IGV) moved above $114.83 to a four year high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Cognizant (CTSH) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $67.65 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Toronto Dominion Bank (TD.TO) a TSX 60 stock moved above $108.68 extending an intermediate uptrend.
National Bank (NA.TO) a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$151.96 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Changes last week
Links offered by valued providers
Should you buy bitcoin dips? Mark Leibovit
Should You Buy Bitcoin Dips? – HoweStreet
Sector Rotation Points to Large Cap Growth Stocks: Julius de Kempenaer
Sector Rotation Points to Large Cap Growth Stocks – YouTube
Will Fed Cuts Drive Stocks Higher? Goldman Sachs
Will Fed Cuts Drive Stocks Higher? – YouTube
The Power of Technical Analysis: Spotting Tops, Breakouts & Buy Signals with Katie Stockton
Never Doubt the American Consumer: Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Michelle Meyer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvhcWqc9CnY
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 9/19/25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6OzQlow7xc
Mike’s Money Talks for September 20th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Lower Interest Rates Predict Bad Times Ahead: Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/09/lower-interest-rates-predict-bad-times-ahead-bob-hoye/
Why Fed Rate Cut NOT Good News: Tim Wood
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/09/why-fed-rate-cut-not-good-news-tim-wood/
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.20 on Friday but dropped 4.00 last week to 57.40. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below
The long term Barometer slipped 0.20 on Friday and dropped 2.40 last week to 62.80. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and slipped 0.95 last week to 72.86. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 0.48 on Friday and gained 0.48 last week to 84.29. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications