Editor’s Note: Next Tech Talk report is scheduled for release on Tuesday October 14th
Pre-opening Comments for Monday October 6th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 25 points at 8:30 AM EDT.
The Nikkei Average jumped 2,175.26 to 47,944.76 after selection of Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s first female prime minister.
![clip_image001[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/clip_image0011-2.png "clip_image001[1]")
Advanced Micro Devices gained $39.04 to $203.71 after signing a deal to provide AI chips to Open AI
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/clip_image0021-1.png "clip_image002[1]")
Bitcoin briefly moved above US$125,000 to an all-time high.
![clip_image003[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/clip_image0031-1.png "clip_image003[1]")
Comerica advanced $8.92 to $79.47 after Fifth Third Bank offered to acquire the bank in an all-stock deal valued at $10.9 billion.
![clip_image004[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/clip_image0041-1.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s stock market outlook for October 6th
Treasury securities sold by the Fed in temporary open market operations just hit the lowest level in years last week. We’ll tell you what this means for stocks. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/10/04/stock-market-outlook-for-october-6-2025/
Technical Scoop for October 6th from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
The Bottom Line
The calm before the storm! Frequency of quarterly reports by North American companies reaches a low point this week: Many companies are in the “quiet zone” period prior to release of results. Consensus shows that analysts are expecting lower earnings growth in the third quarter relative to the second quarter when earnings on a year-over-year basis by S&P 500 companies increased 11.5%. During the past two weeks, consensus for S&P 500 earnings growth in the third quarter bottomed near 7.7% and recovered to 8.0%. Technically, momentum indicators for the S&P 500 and TSX Composite remain elevated and have yet to show significant signs of turning down. Indeed, TSX long term Momentum Barometer closed at a five year high on Friday.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analysts increased earnings estimates slightly again last week.
- Consensus for third quarter 2025 earnings gains increased to 8.0% from 7.9%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth remained at 6.3%.
- Consensus for fourth quarter 2025 earnings remained unchanged at 7.3%. Revenue growth remained at 6.4%.For all of 2025, consensus for earnings growth increased to 10.9% from 10.8%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 6.1%.
- Consensus for first quarter 2026 earnings growth increased to 11.8% from 11.7%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 7.2% from 7.1%.
- Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings growth remained at 12.7%. Consensus for revenue growth remained at 6.4%.
- For all of 2026, earnings growth remained at 13.8%. Consensus for revenue growth remained at 6.6%.
Economic News This Week
Unavailable due to the U.S. Federal Government shutdown!
Selected Earnings News This Week
Monday: Constellation Brands
Tuesday: McCormick
Thursday: PepsiCo, Delta Airlines, Levi Strauss
Technical Notes
Industrial SPDRs (XLI) moved above $154.51 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Base Metals ETN (DBB), equal one third weights in copper, zinc and aluminum, moved above $20.98 to a three year high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Italy iShares (EWI) moved above $52.56 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
FedEx (FSX) an S&P 100 stock moved above $244.20 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable until December 14th. See seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com
Danaher (DHR) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $213.63 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable until January 31st. See seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com
Regeneron (REGN) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $610.45 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Chevron (CVX) a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $152.88 completing a double top pattern.
Philip Morris International (PM) an S&P 100 stock moved below $154.25 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for October 3rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for October 3rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for October 3rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Links offered by valued providers
JPMorgan’s David Kelly: Market rally is ‘a little irrational’ amid deteriorating fundamentals
Oil Glut Fears, Spare Capacity Risks & the Age of Natural Gas
Oil Glut Fears, Spare Capacity Risks & the Age of Natural Gas – YouTube
Unlocking the Years-Ending-in-5 Market Signal | Navigating Seasonal Cycles, October 2, 2025: Jake Bernstein
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZmocs7kSUE
This week in money: Ross Clark, Martin Straith, Mark Leibovit
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 3.60 on Friday and gained 5.00 last week to 61.40. It changed from neutral to Overbought on a recovery above 60.00.
The long term Barometer added 1.00 on Friday and gained 3.60 last week to 67.40. It remained Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.94 on Friday and gained 4.23 last week to 76.06. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and added 0.93 last week to 87.32. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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October 6th, 2025 at 7:23 pm
Sid Mokhtari’s monthly top ten report is a must to read. He is an excellent technical analyst who consistently outperforms.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-the-stock-picks-of-cibcs-mokhtari-continue-to-blow-past-the-tsx/
October 6th, 2025 at 10:09 pm
I liked his 2 past picks this summer for gold Kinross and IAMGold, they have performed well.
October 8th, 2025 at 9:55 am
We have some people missing in action who have been long-time posters.
I can’t help but mention something I have heard Jim Cramer say a couple of times now which seems so true from what I have observed which is “Don’t Listen to Billionaires”. Cramer’s point is that these people have amassed their money and don’t need to take on risk and don’t want to take on risk. They are invited to go on television because they are billionaires and they talk about the bogeymen out there that you should be aware of and avoid taking on risk. You take their advice seriously because these people telling you about the bogeymen are billionaires and therefore they must be right. The result is that you both avoided risk and you gave up opportunity. Financial television is completely full of naysayers, doomsday prophets, skeptics, etc. and their job is to shake you out of profitable trades.
October 8th, 2025 at 1:43 pm
Larry,
As Randolph Hearst said in the late 19th C. talking about the front page of his newspapers: “If it bleeds it leads, and it doesn’t matter whose blood it is”. In other words, big negative news always sells newspapers….today, it’s all about click bait. Nothing changes.
October 8th, 2025 at 3:15 pm
Hey Larry,
Saw post#3, I come once in a while, I skim through Don’s pages. I will read posts but I rarely write as much as I use to when we had over 50 to a 100 posts a day were everyone seemed to be concerned in what they wanted to buy and wanted someone elses opinion. but after the querrel people around were only in for a few posters as if it were the messiah without questionning and noticed that they wouldn’t take other opinions, so there hasn’t been any reason to write Should people start questionning on certain stocks I’ll be glad to chip in my technical opinion free of charge. 🙂
October 8th, 2025 at 8:05 pm
Tony hopefully you are doing well. Why not post if you come across something interesting? If I was to ask your technical opinion on anything it would be CAD. I think there were some that were looking for further appreciation agains USD and since July it has been quite weak and is hovering near the May low. If you look at a long-term chart going 20 years I don’t see anything to suggest that we won’t go lower. It’s long-term decline that is tied to a weak economy.
October 9th, 2025 at 12:11 am
Hi Larry,
I M doing fine.
Well back to your question I agree with you, for cad vs USD it clearly looks as if usd will go higher so buy some usd. But compared to the euro, cad looks as it might havee reached the bottom.
So if wanting to travel to Europe somewhere next year it might be something to consider.
As for the market lately I’ve heard that a company was able to get 3B$ to build a nuclear power plant. But this company has nothing to back it up. So this is making me feel uneasy about the market. A bit like the dot com Bubble
October 9th, 2025 at 1:12 pm
Tony – That’s hilarious that I asked you about CAD yesterday. It just broke support at the May low around 0.7155 and went off a cliff today.
October 10th, 2025 at 5:32 pm
On Fridays, I usually watch on You Tube: Ken Fisher’s fireside chats, Ross Healy’s musings on specific stocks and Berman’s technical analysis on the past week. They are short, just a few minutes.
Fisher, a multibillionare investment money manager, has written many books on investing, and I agree with most of what he says. He does manage people’s money so he has a bias in always keeping people invested. His Dad was an even more famous investemnet manager and writer, and recommended by Buffet. Always interesting.
Healy has been around for decades. I would not buy his picks as he is a bottom feeder, looking for a home run….but he has called every recession in the past 40 years, so I do listened to what he has to say.
Berman is always bearish. The joke around is that his name should be BEARman…lol…always bearish….but he goes over the technical aspects of the past week. Always of interest. If he ever get bullish, I’d run for the hills….