Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday October 14^th

U.S. equity indices moved higher yesterday after concerns about an escalating tariff war with China lessened. The S&P 500 Index added 105.21 to 6,654.72.

U.S. equity index futures moved lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 59 points to 6,635 at 8:30 AM EDT.

Yesterday, Gold bullion added $96.40 to another all-time high at US$4,109.65. This morning gold added another $17.40 per ounce.

JP Morgan Chase added $0.58 to $308.51 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter results.

Wells Fargo gained $1.57 to $80.49 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter results.

General Motors dropped $0.99 to $54.63 after reporting a $1.6 billion EV write down.

EquityClock’s market outlook for October 14^th

Time to dust off the simple 12-21 strategy using the Volatility Index (VIX). See:

https://equityclock.com/2025/10/11/stock-market-outlook-for-october-14-2025/

Technical Scoop for October 13^th from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com

https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/

The Bottom Line

Significant technical damage was recorded by North American equity markets on Friday. The S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average and the TSX Composite Index plunged below their 20 day moving average.

The VIX Index spiked on Friday, up 5.23% to 21.66% and briefly moved above 21.90% to a fourth month high. The trigger was President Trump’s comments on possible tariff increases on China. China large cap iShares (FXI) plunged 5.38% on Friday.

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies

Source: www.factset.com

Analyst earnings and revenue estimates were mostly unchanged last week.

· Consensus for third quarter 2025 earnings gains remained at 8.0%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth remained at 6.3%.

· Consensus for fourth quarter 2025 earnings increased to 7.4% from7.3%. Revenue growth remained at 6.4%.For all of 2025, consensus for earnings growth remained at 10.9%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 6.1%.

· Consensus for first quarter 2026 earnings growth slipped to 11.7% from 11.8%. Consensus for revenue gains increased remained at 7.2%..

· Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings growth remained at 12.7%. Consensus for revenue growth remained at 6.4%.

· For all of 2026, earnings growth remained at 13.8%. Consensus for revenue growth remained at 6.6%.

Economic News This Week

Note: None of the U.S. federal data points will be released until after resolution of the shutdown by Congress.

August Canadian Building Permits released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.1% gain in July.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at 12:20 PM EDT on Tuesday

September U.S. Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% gain in August. Excluding food and energy, September CPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.3% increase in August.

October Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to improve to 0.2 from -8.7 in September.

September Canadian Housing Starts released at 8:15 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase to 248,000 from 245,800 in August.

Beige Book is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday.

September U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.6% gain in August. Excluding auto sales, September U.S. Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.7% gain in August.

September U.S. Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.1% drop in August.

U.S. August Business Inventories released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.2% gain in July.

Bank of Canada Maclem speaks at 1:30 PM EDT.

International Monetary Fund meeting starts

September U.S. Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase to 52,000 from 22,000 in August. September Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged from August at 4.3%.

September U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to be unchanged from August at 1.31 million units.

September U.S. Industrial Production released at 9:15 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a 0.1% gain in August. September Capacity Utilization is expected to slip to 77.3% from 77.4% in August

Selected Earnings News This Week

Focuses this week are on third quarter results released by major U.S. banks.

Trader’s Corner (Changes last week)

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for October 10^th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for October 10^th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for October 10^th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Changes last week

Links offered by valued providers

Should You Sell Now? Here’s What the Charts Are Saying: Mary Ellen McGonagle

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScEu0Ap1n3k

Where Might Be The Downside Target for U.S. Stocks? Tom Bowley

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47dAhhBDsXM

Weekly Update with Larry Berman – October 11, 2025

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=763En9p8b9Q

The Top: TheTechnicalTraders

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSI9xs9ecSk

This Week in Money: Ross Clark, Victor Adair, Hilliard MacBeth

https://www.howestreet.com/2025/10/gold-oil-uranium-rare-earths-trade-wars-real-estate-chinese-evs-victor-adair-hillaird-macbeth-ross-clark-this-week-in-money/

Has Gold Topped Out? Bob Hoye

https://www.howestreet.com/2025/10/has-gold-topped-out-bob-hoye/

Should We Be Concerned About Gold? Mark Leibovit

https://www.howestreet.com/2025/10/should-we-be-concerned-about-gold-market-dip-mark-leibovit/

Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for October 11^th

https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/category/mikes-content/complete-show/

From Rally to Reversal: Four S&P 500 Scenarios Based on the Charts: David Keller

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69VQuHFIH8w

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer plunged 12.80 on Friday and 23.00 last week to 38.40. It changed from Overbought to Oversold on a drop below 40.00.

The long term Barometer dropped 7.60 on Friday and 10.80 last week to 56.60. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a fall below 60.00.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 4.67 on Friday and 10.17 last week to 65.89. It remains Overbought.

The long term Barometer dropped 1.87 on Friday and fell 4.51 last week to 82.71. It remains Overbought.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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