The Bottom Line
Look for volatile, but trendless equity prices on lower than average volume in North American equity markets this week. U.S. equity markets are closed for Thanks Giving on Thursday. Institutional investors have a history of “going on holidays” after the opening on Wednesday. Ditto for Canadian equity markets! The TSX Composite Index has a history of moving slightly higher on low volume during the Wednesday/Friday U.S. Thanks Giving holiday period.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analyst earnings and revenue estimates were virtually increased slightly last week: 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported third quarter results to date: 83% exceeded consensus earnings estimates and 76% exceeded consensus revenue estimates.
- Consensus for third quarter 2025 earnings gains increased to 13.4% from 13.1%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth increased to 8.4% from 8.3%.
- Consensus for fourth quarter 2025 earnings gains increased to 7.5% from7.4%. Consensus for revenue growth increased to 7.3% from 7.2%. For all of 2025, consensus for earnings growth increased to 12.2% from 11.7%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 6.8%.
- Consensus for first quarter 2026 calls for a 12.2% earnings increase and a 7.9% revenue increase.
- Consensus for second quarter 2026 calls for a 13.3% earnings increase and a 7.0% revenue increase.
- For all of 2026, consensus for earnings growth increased to 13.9% from 13.7%. Consensus for revenue growth remained at 6.9%.
Economic News This Week
September U.S. Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EST on Monday is expected to slip to 77.3% from 77.4% in August.
September U.S. Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.1% drop in August. On a year-over-year basis the Index is expected to increase to 2.7% from 2.6% in August
September U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.6% gain in August.
September U.S. Durable Goods Orders released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 2.9% increase in August.
Third quarter U.S. GDP is released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday
November U.S. Chicago PMI is released at 9:45 AM EST on Wednesday
September Core PCE Price Index released at 10:00 AM EST is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.2% increase in August. On a year-over-year basis, the September Index is expected to increase 2.9% versus a 2.9% increase in August.
September U.S. New Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to drop to 710,000 from 800,000 in August.
September U.S. Personal Income released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.4% gain in August. September Personal Spending is expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.6% increase in August.
Beige Book is released at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday.
Canada’s September GDP released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a 0.3% drop in August.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Twelve S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results this week. One TSX 60 company is scheduled to report, Couche Tard.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for November 21st 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 21st 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 21st 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Technical Notes for Friday
Industrial SPDRs (XLI) moved below $147.52 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Global Base Metals iShares (PICK) moved below $44.37 and $44.28 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.
Palladium ETN (PALL) moved below $124.24 completing a double top pattern.
Nvidia (NVDA) an S&P 100 stock moved below $178.91 and $176.76 completing a short term Head & Shoulders pattern.
Other S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks breaking support extending an intermediate downtrend included Charles Schwab (SCHW) on a move below $90.24, General Electric (GE) on a move below $289.66 and Copart (CPRT) on a move below $39.58.
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for November 22nd
https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/category/mikes-content/complete-show/
New Risk Signals No One’s Talking About with RBC’s Lori Calvasina, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami
New Risk Signals No One’s Talking About with RBC’s Lori Calvasina – YouTube
Tom Lee points out a mechanical ‘glitch’ that may be fueling crypto’s rollover
Tom Lee points out a mechanical ‘glitch’ that may be fueling crypto’s rollover – YouTube
India Could Outperform China in the 2026 Stock Market- Here’s why: ValueTrendCanada
India Could Outperform China in the 2026 Stock Market- Here’s why – YouTube
Discretionary Lags; Speculative Names Thrown Out; Trend Signals within MAG7 & Utilities: Arthur Hill
Breakdown or Opportunity? What the Charts Reveal Now: Mary Ellen McGonagle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCNb44_YoI0
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – November 22, 2025
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKN7uUkp5_A
Market Rebounds… But Can It Last? Key Signals After Nvidia’s Drop | CHART THIS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLn5i1MpXzA
Fear of Major Market Correction: Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/11/fear-of-major-market-correction-bob-hoye/
Rising Japanese Bonds Spooking Stock Market: Mark Leibovit
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/11/rising-japanese-bonds-spooking-stock-market-mark-leibovit/
Trading Desk Notes for November 22, 2025: Victor Adair
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/11/trading-desk-notes-for-november-22-2025/
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
Intermediate term Barometer added 9.00 on Friday, but dropped 2.80 last week to 40.80. It returned from Oversold to Neutral on Friday on a recovery above 40.00.
The long term Barometer added 5.60 on Friday, but dropped 1.80 last week to 56.00. It remains Neutral.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 4.27 on Friday, but dropped 5.40 on Friday to 54.03, Ut remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer added 1.90 on Friday, but dropped 2.47 last week to 76.78. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications