The Bottom Line
Santa Claus arrived later than usual this year! The proverbial Santa Claus Rally in North American equity markets from December 14th to January 6th started this year on Thursday December 18th Equity prices responded late last week when analysts significant increased quarterly earnings and revenues estimates.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analyst earnings and revenue estimates increased significantly from last week’s report:
· Consensus for fourth quarter 2025 earnings gains increased to 8.3% from8.1%. Consensus for revenue growth increased to 7.6% from7.5%. For all of 2025, consensus for earnings gains increased to 12.3% from 12.1%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 7.0% from 6.9%.
· Consensus for first quarter 2026 calls for a 13.1% earnings increase, up from 12.4% last week. Revenue gains increased to 8.2% from a previous 7.9% gain.
· Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 14.6% from 13.8%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 7.3% from 7.1%.
· Consensus for third quarter 2026 earnings calls for a 14.7% gain, up from 13.8% last week. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 6.5% from 6.3%
· Consensus for fourth quarter 2026 earnings calls for a 18.1% earnings gain versus 17.5% last week and a7.2% revenue gain, up from 7.1% last week.
· For all of 2026, consensus for earnings growth increased to 15.0% from 14.5%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 7.2% from 7.1%.
Economic News This Week
October U.S. Durable Goods Orders are released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday
Third Quarter U.S. GDP released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to slip to 3.2% from 3.8% in the second quarter.
September U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to increase to 1.320 million units from 1.307 million units in August.
Canada’s October GDP released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to drop 0.3% versus a 0.2% increase in September.
October Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to be unchanged at 75.9%. October Industrial Production is expected to be up 0.1% versus a 0.1% gain in September.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Nil
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for December 19th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for December 19th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 19th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Technical Notes
Nike (NKE) a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $59.91 extending an intermediate downtrend. Responded to less than consensus fiscal second quarter results!
American Tower (AMT) an S&P 100 stock moved below $174.35 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Monster Beverage (MNST) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $76.28 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable on a real and relative basis until January 16th. See seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com
Charles Schwab (SCHW) an S&P 100 stock moved above $99.13 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable until January 10th. See seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com
National Bank (NA.TO) a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$175.99 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable on a real and relative basis until March 1st. See seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com
CAE Inc. (CAE.TO) a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$41.38 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable on a real and relative basis until March 1st. See seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for December 20th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
This week in money: Ross Clark, Mark Leibovit and Robert Campbell
Is a Santa Claus Rally Starting to Take Shape? Mary Ellen McGonagle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpAoMr1dzx0
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – December 20, 2025
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pv1jmQSlxGA
Dan Niles: The "Swiss Army Knife" Problem That Could Kill Nvidia’s Stock: Dan Nathan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXA9wBzUrrY
Oil Is Hated Now: Josef Schachter Explains What Changes in 2026
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgv9oCBjR5Y
Energy Market Year-End Review & 2026 Oil and Natural Gas Outlook: Nine Point Partners
Energy Market Year-End Review & 2026 Oil and Natural Gas Outlook – YouTube
“We Like Bonds” Goldman Sachs
Bob’s Financial Story of the Year: Bob Hoye
Bob’s Financial Story of the Year – HoweStreet
The truth about tax rates: Michael Green
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/12/the-truth-about-tax-rates/
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.60 on Friday and dropped 2.60 last week to 57.00. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer dropped 1.60 on Friday and dropped 2.80 last week to 60.60. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 3.32 on Friday and gained 4.27 last week to 70.62. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer dropped 0.95 on Friday and was unchanged last week to 81.04. It remains Overbought.
Tech Talk is a free service offered each business day at www.timingthemarket.ca
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications