Pre-opening Comments for Monday January 5th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 14 points at 8:30 AM EST.
WTI crude oil added $0.60 to $57.92 per barrel following capture by the U.S. of Venezuelan President Maduro. Venezuela is a significant exporter of heavy crude oil. Major U.S. oil refining stocks were higher in overnight trade.
![clip_image001[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/clip_image0014.png "clip_image001[4]")
Gold advanced $97.10 to $4,426.70 in response to the Maduro capture.
The Las Vegas Consumer Electronic Show starts today and continues until Friday. Look for news on new electronic products and services. Focuses this year are on new products and services related to Artificial Intelligence (AI). The Technology sector and related ETFs have a history of moving higher during CES week.
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for January 5th
The first month of the year has historically generated strong results for stocks with the S&P 500 Index higher by 1.2%, on average, and gains realized in 60% of periods. See:
https://equityclock.com/2026/01/01/stock-market-outlook-for-january-5-2026/
Technical Scoop for January 5th from David Chapman and www.Enrichedinvesting.com
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
The Bottom Line
The proverbial “Santa Claus” rally for the S&P 500 Index from December 14th to January 6th is “holding in” just barely. The S&P is up 0.45% since the close on Friday December 12th.
Several technical analysts/strategists (e.g. Tom Bowley, Craig Johnson, Tom Lee, Guy Adami, Dan Nathan, Carter Worth, David Keller, Jeremy Seigel) have issued cautious comments for U.S. equity markets for the short term. Their concerns include:
- Slowing fourth quarter earnings gains relative to third quarter results
- Possible shutdown of Congress before the end of January
- Struggling chart action by major U.S. equity indices and ETFs (Notably the Magnificent 7 ETF: MAGS since the end of October)
Capture by the U.S. of Venezuelan President Maduro on Sunday adds to uncertainty.
In contrast, the most favourable seasonality period in the year by the TSX Composite Index from December 14th to the first week in March is off to a good start. The TSX Composite Index has started to show strong performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: It has gained 1.15% since the close on December 12th and outperformed the S&P 500 by 0.70%. Sectors and their related ETFs that recorded exceptional gains last week included Canadian financial, gold, base metal, energy and forest product stocks. All currently are in or approaching their period of seasonal strength.
Meanwhile, several international equity indices and related ETF have been breaking to new highs: Most notable last week were breakouts by China (FXI), Europe (IEV), South Korea (EWY) and India (PIN).
Economic News This Week
December ISM Manufacturing Index released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday is expected to improve to 48.3 from 48.2 in November.
December ISM Services Index released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to drop to 52.2 from 52.6 in November.
October U.S. Factory Orders released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to drop 1.1 versus a 0.2% gain in September.
October U.S. Trade Deficit released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase to $58.50 billion from $52.8 billion in November.
October Canadian Trade released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to record a $1.5 billion deficit versus a 150,000 surplus in September
U.S. Third Quarter Productivity released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase to 3.7% from 3.3% in the second quarter.
October Wholesale Inventories released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.5% gain in September.
U.S. December Employment Report released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to record a gain of 57,000 versus a 64,000 gain in November. December Unemployment Rate is expected to slip to 4.5% from 4.6% in October.
Canadian December Employment Report released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to drop to a 7,500 drop from a 53.600 gain in November. December Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 6.7% from 6.5% in November.
U.S. October Housing Starts are released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday
January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to improve to 53.5 from 52.9 in December
Selected Earnings News This Week
Constellation Brands on Wednesday
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 2nd 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 2nd 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 31st 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
*All time high
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for January 3rd
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Folks, the Warning Signs Are REAL! | Weekly Market Recap
Folks, the Warning Signs Are REAL! | Weekly Market Recap – YouTube
Is There a Safe Haven if Markets Crash? Bob Hoye
Is There a Safe Haven if Markets Crash? – HoweStreet
The Precious Metals the Big Winners of 2025: Mark Leibovit
The Precious Metals the Big Winners of 2025 – HoweStreet
Tech Stocks to Climb 20%-25% in 2026, Says Dan Ives
Tech Stocks to Climb 20%-25% in 2026, Says Dan Ives – YouTube
Canadian economic outlook for 2026: BNN
Canadian economic outlook for 2026 – YouTube
Good earnings and strong margins will continue this year, says Hightower’s Stephanie Link
Good earnings and strong margins will continue this year, says Hightower’s Stephanie Link – YouTube
Expect a ‘jump, slump, and a pump’ for S&P 500 in 2026, says Piper Sandler’s Craig Johnson
Expect a ‘jump, slump, and a pump’ for S&P 500 in 2026, says Piper Sandler’s Craig Johnson – YouTube
Interactive Brokers’ Sosnick on the key developments he’s watching in 2026
Interactive Brokers’ Sosnick on the key developments he’s watching in 2026 – YouTube
Goldman: The U.S. economy will prove to be stronger than expected in 2026
Goldman: The U.S. economy will prove to be stronger than expected in 2026 – YouTube
Capital Rotates Into Defense Stocks as the “Golden Dome” Theme Gains Traction
Mary Ellen McGonagle
Capital Rotates Into Defense Stocks as the “Golden Dome” Theme Gains Traction (stockcharts.com)
Technical Notes for Friday
South Korea iShares (EWY) moved above $98.57 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend
Semiconductor ETF (SMH) moved above $374.43 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable on a real and relative basis (relative to the S&P 500) until March 1st. See seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com
Global Auto ETF (CARZ) moved above $79.25 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend
Global Timber iShares (WOOD) moved above $72.32 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable on a real and relative basis until January 31st. See seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks breaking resistance extending intermediate uptrends included ASML Holding (ASML) on a moved above $1,141.72 to an all-time high and
NetEase (NTES) on a move above $146.07. Seasonal influences are favourable for ASMLon a real and relative basis until January 28th. See seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks breaking support setting/extending intermediate downtrends included PayPal (PYPL) on a move below $58.00, Copart (CPRT) on a move below $38.18, O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) on a move below $90.18, CDW Corp. on a move below $38.18, CheckPoint (CHKP) on a move below $180.74, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) on a move below $180.05, Roper Technologies (ROP) on a move below $434.53, Netflix (NFLX) on a move below $92.35 and Autodesk (ADSK) on a move below $286.32.
TSX 60 stocks moving below support extending intermediate downtrends included Thomson Reuters (TRI.TO) on a move below Cdn$177.00 and Open Text (OTEX) on a move below US$32.07 and Cdn$45.06.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 2.00 on Friday, but slipped 3.40 last week. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.
The long term Barometer added 0.80 on Friday, but dropped 2.40 last week to 60.60. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 5.69 on Friday and gained 0.94 last week to 73.93. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 0.47 on Friday and gained 0.48 last week to 82.94. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications