The Bottom Line
We live in strange times! On one hand, technical selling in North American equity markets accelerated last week. The S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average broke below their 200 day moving averages on Thursday triggering numerous sell recommendations by technical analysts. On the other hand, consensus for earnings and revenue gains for S&P 500 companies offered by U.S. fundamental analysts accelerated to the upside. Seasonal influences for North American equity indices normally bottom in the second half of March. Technical evidence shows that S&P 500 and TSX Composite Index are deeply oversold. However, technical signs of a seasonal low have yet to surface. Momentum indicators for stocks in both indices plunged to new recent lows on Friday. See momentum charts at the end of this report for TSX and S&P 500 stocks. Short term caution continues to be advised.
Earnings and Revenues Consensus for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analysts accelerated their 2026 earnings and revenue gain gains last week.
- Consensus for first quarter 2026 calls for an 12.5% earnings increase, up from an 11.6% last week. Revenue gains increased to 9.6% from 9.4%.
- Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 17.8% from16.0%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 9.0% from 8.7%.
- Consensus for third quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 18.8% from 16.9%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 8.2% from 7.9%.
- Consensus for fourth quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 18.1% from 15.9%. Revenue gains increased to 8.1% from 8.0%.
- For all of 2026, consensus for earnings gains increased to 16.3% from 15.3%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 8.3% from 8.0%.
Economic News This Week
January U.S. Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a 0.3% increase in December
Fourth quarter revised U.S. Productivity released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to ease to 1.8% from previous 2.8%
March Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to slip to 54.0 from 55.5 in February
Selected Earnings News This Week
Quiet week for scheduled U.S. and Canadian quarterly reports!
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 20th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 20th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 20th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes Last Week
Technical Notes for Friday
20+ years Treasury Bond iShares (TLT) moved below $85.93 setting an intermediate downtrend.
Germany iShares (EWG) moved below $70.69 extending an intermediate downtrend.
China iShares (FXI) moved below $35.33 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Technology SPDRs (XLK) moved below $135.07 setting an intermediate downtrend.
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks trading below support setting intermediate downtrends included Microsoft (MSFT) on a move below $381.71, CVS Health (CVS) on a move below $70.69, DR Horton (DHI) on a move below $134.36, Kraft Heinz (KHC) on a move below $21.62, AbbVie (ABBV) on a move below $204.27, GE Healthcare (GEHC) on a move below $69.03
TSX 60 stocks trading below support setting intermediate downtrends included
Toronto Dominion Bank (TD.TO) on a move below Cdn$126.88 and Cdn$126.44,
OpenText (OTEX) on a move below US$22.20, Gildan Activewear (GIL.TO) on a move below Cdn$76.46.
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for March 21st
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
"The Market Is Fragile" Goldman Sachs
"The Market Is Fragile" – YouTube
The S&P 500 200-day moving average looks vulnerable to us, says Fairlead’s Katie Stockton
The S&P 500 200-day moving average looks vulnerable to us, says Fairlead’s Katie Stockton – YouTube
Our indicators are moving toward oversold, says Truist’s Keith Lerner
Our indicators are moving toward oversold, says Truist’s Keith Lerner – YouTube
Cracks in Mega-Cap Leadership: What MSFT, AMZN, and TSLA Are Telling Us
David Keller
Cracks in Mega-Cap Leadership: What MSFT, AMZN, and TSLA Are Telling Us (stockcharts.com)
Selling Will Likely Escalate If S&P 500 Loses This Support Level: Tom Bowley
Selling Will Likely Escalate If S&P 500 Loses This Support Level (stockcharts.com)
Why Oil Prices May Stay Elevated Into Mid-2026 and the Impact On the Stock Market
Mary Ellen McGonagle
Why Oil Prices May Stay Elevated Into Mid-2026 and the Impact On the Stock Market (stockcharts.com)
The Historical Up and Downs of Oil: Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2026/03/he-historical-up-and-downs-of-oil-bob-hoye/
Trading Desk Notes for March 21, 2026: Victor Adair
https://www.howestreet.com/2026/03/trading-desk-notes-for-march-21-2026/
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 7.40 on Friday and plunged 11.20 last week to 21.20. It remains Oversold. Daily downtrend was extended on Friday
The short term (20 days) Barometer dropped 6.00 on Friday and plunged 10.60 last week to 12.60. It remains Oversold. Daily downtrend was extended on Friday.
The long term Barometer dropped 3.20 on Friday and dropped 4.60 last week to 45.20. It remains Neutral.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 2.76 on Friday and dropped 8.76 last week to 30.41. It remains Oversold. Daily downtrend was extended.
The short term (20 days) Barometer dropped 3.23 on Friday and 2.31 last week to 24.42. It remains Oversold. Daily downtrend was extended.
The long term Barometer dropped $1.38 on Friday and 4.15 last week to 69.12. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend was extended.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications