The Bottom Line
Friday’s U.S. March employment report, released when U.S. equity markets were closed, provided an encouraging surprise for the U.S. economy: Consensus called for a 59,000 increase in March Non-farm Payrolls versus a revised 92,000 drop in February. Actual was a 178,000 increase. Consensus for the March Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 4.4% in February. Actual was a drop to 4.3%.
Overnight equity markets on Friday were less impressed by the employment report: Initially, U.S. equity index futures moved lower due to concerns that higher than expected employment will pressure inflation rates higher.
Economic focus this week is on the U.S. March Consumer Price Index report released on Friday The report will include the initial shock of higher crude oil prices
Corporate earnings reports released this week are not expected to influence U.S. equity markets: Only three S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release results. The flood of first quarter reports starts next week with a focus on reports by major financial companies.
North American equity markets entered their Spring period of seasonal strength last week, slightly later than their normal.
Earnings and Revenues Consensus for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analysts increased their 2026 earnings and revenue gains again last week.
- Consensus for first quarter 2026 calls for a 13.2% earnings increase, up from a 13.0% increase last week. Revenue gains remained at 9.7%.
- Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 19.1% from18.7%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 9.7% from 9.2%.
- Consensus for third quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 21.2% from 20.8%. Consensus for revenue gains slipped to 8.7% from 8.8%.
- Consensus for fourth quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 19.3% from 19.0%. Revenue gains increased to 8.4% from 8.3%.
- For all of 2026, consensus for earnings gains increased to 17.4% from 17.1%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 8.8% from 8.6%.
Economic News This Week
March ISM Services released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday are expected to drop to 55.4 from 56.1 in February
February Durable Goods Orders released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to drop 1.0% versus no change in January.
Minutes of the March FOMC meeting are released at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday
February Personal Income released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% increase in January. February Personal Spending is expected to increase 0.5% versus a 0.4% increase in January.
February Core PCE Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.4% increase in January. On a year-over-year basis, the February Index is expected to increase 3.0% versus a 3.1% increase in January.
February Wholesale Inventories released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to drop 0.5% versus a 0.5% drop in January.
March U.S. Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 1.0% versus a 0.3% increase in February. On a year-over-year basis, March CPI is expected to increase 3.2% versus a 2.4% increase in February. Excluding food and energy, March CPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.2% increase in February. On a year-over-year basis, March Core CPI is expected to increase 2.7% versus a 2.5% increase in February.
February Factory Orders released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.1% increase in January.
April Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to drop to 52.0 from 55.5 in March.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Another quiet week! No major Canadian companies are scheduled.
Tuesday: Levi Straus
Wednesday: Delta Airlines, Constellation Brands
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 2nd 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 2nd 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 2nd 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes Last Week
Technical Notes for Thursday
General Motors (GM) an S&P 100 stock moved below $71.92 setting an intermediate downtrend.
Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $25.41 setting an intermediate downtrend.
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for April 4th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Watch This Before Buying the Dip! ValueTrendCanada
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBmClJz6Few
The President Just CRASHED The Market! Is This A Ruse? Oil Spikes Over 10%, Investors In Panic: Verified Investor
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOwSs47byB0
Stocks Keep Slipping — Here’s What’s Replacing Them: Julius Dekempenaer
Stocks Keep Slipping — Here’s What’s Replacing Them – YouTube
This Market Keeps Failing — Is Another Drop Coming? Tom Bowley
This Market Keeps Failing — Is Another Drop Coming? – YouTube
A Key Signal That Suggests a Choppy Market Ahead: Tom Bowley
A Key Signal That Suggests a Choppy Market Ahead (stockcharts.com)
QUICK REACTIONS NEEDED TO DEAL WITH CURRENT MARKET – APRIL 2 PODCAST: Mark Leibovit
QUICK REACTIONS NEEDED TO DEAL WITH CURRENT MARKET – APRIL 2 PODCAST (substack.com)
A Significant Structural Change in the U.S. Stock Market May Be Underway: Martin Pring
A Significant Structural Change in the U.S. Stock Market May Be Underway (stockcharts.com)
Zweig Breadth Thrust Sets Up; How to Identify a Stampede in Upside Participation: Arthur Hill
Zweig Breadth Thrust Sets Up; How to Identify a Stampede in Upside Participation (stockcharts.com)
The Set Up Continues for Bursting of the Bubble of Everything: Bob Hoye
Expect One More Big Rally, Then Market Crash: Tim Wood
https://www.howestreet.com/2026/04/expect-one-more-big-rally-then-market-crash-tim-wood/
A Market Turn May Be Starting, What to Watch Now: Mary Ellen McGonagle
A Market Turn May Be Starting, What to Watch Now (stockcharts.com)
Is This Rally Real? What Needs to Improve for a Bullish Case: David Keller
Is This Rally Real? What Needs to Improve for a Bullish Case (stockcharts.com)
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term (50 days) Barometer added another 2.80 on Friday and advanced 10.40 last week to 30.80. It remains Oversold. Daily uptrend was extended on Thursday.
The short term (20 days) Barometer jumped 7.00 on Friday and vaulted 38.00 last week to 51.40. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a recovery above 40.00. Daily uptrend was extended.
The long term Barometer (200 days) was unchanged on Friday and added 5.40 last week to 49.40. It remains Neutral.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and gained 19.45 last week to 49.77. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a recovery above 40.00. Daily trend remains up.
The short term (20 days) moving average added 4.98 on Friday and gained 42.98 last week to 71.49. It changed from Oversold to Overbought on a move above 60.00. Daily trend remains up.
The long term (200 days) Barometer added 0.45 on Thursday and gained 1.81 last week to 74.21. It remains Overbought. Daily trend remains up
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications