The Bottom Line
Focus this week is the FOMC’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. Consensus calls for a 0.25% increase in the Fed Fund Rate.
On a seasonal basis, the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index continue to track their historic pattern of moving lower between the third week in September and the first week in October.
Earnings and Revenue Consensus for S&P 500 Companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analysts increased their 2026 earnings and revenue estimates again last week.
· Consensus for third quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 28.7% from 28.5%. Consensus for revenue gains slipped to 11.9% from 11.6%.
· Consensus for fourth quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 31.6% from 31.5%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 12.1% from12.0%.
· For all of 2026, consensus for earnings gains increased to 31.6% from 31.5%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 12.1% from12.0%.
Consensus for earnings and revenue gains into 2027 increased again last week.
· For first quarter 2027, consensus for earnings gain increased to 18.0% from 17.9%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 10.8% from 10.7%
· For second quarter 2027, consensus for earnings gains increased to 1.3% from 1.2%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 7.0% from 6.9%.
· For all of 2027, consensus for earnings gains increased to 15.1% from 15.0%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 9.1% from 9.0%
Economic News This Week
Source: www.MarketWatch.com
September Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to drop to 11.1 from 20.6 in August.
August U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.8% versus a 0.6% drop in July.
FOMC decision on U.S. interest rates and the Fed Fund Rate are released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday. Consensus calls for a 0.25% increase in the Fed Fund Rate from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%.
August U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase to 1.3 million units from 1.2 million units in July.
September Philly Fed Survey released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to drop to 27.5 from 47.4 in August.
August U.S. Industrial Production released at 9:15 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.2% increase in July. August U.S. Capacity Utilization is expected to increase to 76.5% from 76.3% in July.
August U.S. Leading Economic Indicators released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.2% increase in July.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Source: www.MarketWatch.com
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Commodities
Sectors
Changes Last Week
Links offered by valued providers Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for September 12th
https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/category/mikes-content/complete-show/
What the SUPER EL NIÑO means for Canada’s weather
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2AISFyoVf0
Oil Breaks $100 – Why the Jaw Boning Is Over: Eric Nuttal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7tIZ9nwkfQ
CPI Inflation Data Inks Fed Rate Hike, Oil Drops, Yields Stall, Markets Bounce. Here’s The Top Trade: Verified Investing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUT00BaMaKI
Why Jim Thorne thinks the bull market isn’t done yet
Why Jim Thorne thinks the bull market isn’t done yet – YouTube
The Market is Flashing a Warning. Could It Also Be Signaling a Rebound? Mary Ellen McGonagle
The Market is Flashing a Warning. Could It Also Be Signaling a Rebound? (stockcharts.com)
Technical Notes for Friday
Coca Cola EuroPacific (CCEP) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $102.59 completing a double top pattern.
Union Pacific (UNP) an S&P 100 stock moved below $283.47 completing a double top pattern.
TC Energy (TRP.TO) a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$84.48 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Pembina Pipeline (PPL.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$65.95 completing a double top pattern
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 5.40 on Friday, but fell 8.60 last week to 39.20. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a drop below 40.00.
The short term Barometer added 7.60 on Friday, but fell 10.80 last week to 25.60. It remained Oversold.
The long term Barometer added 1.40 on Friday, but fell 7.60 last week to 59.00. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.46 on Friday and dropped 5.50 last week to 43.58. It remained Neutral. Daily downtrend was extended.
The short term (20 days) Barometer added 3.21 on Friday, but dropped 24.31 last week to 24.77. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a move below 40.00.
The long term Barometer added 1.83 on Friday, but dropped 24.31 last week to 24.77. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a move below 40.00.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications