The Bottom Line
North American equity indices remain in a sideways trend, typical for this time of year. Seasonal strength by U.S. equity indices during mid-term U.S. election years historically has occurred from the first week in October to the first week in January. U.S. equity indices performance this year will be prompted by exceptional and accelerating year-over-year fourth quarter earnings gains by Dow Industrial Average companies and S&P 500 companies.
Earnings and Revenue Consensus for S&P 500 Companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analysts increased their 2026 earnings and revenue estimates slightly last week.
· Consensus for third quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 29.1% from 28.9%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 12.1% from 11.9%.
· Consensus for fourth quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 26.8% from 26.5%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 11.9% from11.7%.
· For all of 2026, consensus for earnings gains increased to 32.0% from 31.8%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 12.3% from 12.1%.
Consensus for earnings and revenue gains into 2027 also increased slightly last week.
· For first quarter 2027, consensus for earnings gain increased to 18.4% from 18.2%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 11.0% from 10.9%
· For second quarter 2027, consensus for earnings gains increased to 1.7% from 1.5%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 7.2% from 7.0%
· For all of 2027, consensus for earnings gains increased to 15.4% from 15.2%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 9.2% from 9.1%.
Economic News This Week
Source: www.marketwatch.com
Third estimate of second quarter U.S. GDP released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to be unchanged at 1.5%.
August U.S. Consumer Spending released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.8% versus a 0.2% increase in July. August U.S. Personal Income is expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.4% increase in July.
August Core PCE Price released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.2% increase in July. On a year-over-year basis, Price is expected to increase 3.2% versus 3.3% in July.
September ISM PMI released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to improve to 54.8 from 54.6 in August.
August U.S. Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a 0.5% drop in July.
September U.S. Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase 83,000 versus a 162,000 increase in August. September Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged from August at 4.1%. September Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.3% increase in August.
August U.S. Factory Orders released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.9% increase in July.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Source: www.marketwatch.com
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Commodities
Sectors
Changes Last Week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for September 26th
MMT Podcast | Mike’s MoneyTalks (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Mark Leibovit: Stock Markets in Decline, You Just Don’t Know It. Sept. 24, 2026
https://talkdigitalnetwork.substack.com/p/mark-leibovit-stock-markets-in-decline
Rick Ackerman: Will AI Investors Ever Get Their Money Back? Sept. 24, 2026
Rick Ackerman: Will AI Investors Ever Get Their Money Back? Sept. 24, 2026 (substack.com)
Market Call: Bruce Campbell’s outlook on Canadian Stocks (Sept. 25, 2026)
Market Call: Bruce Campbell’s outlook on Canadian Stocks (Sept. 25, 2026) – YouTube
No Matter How Bad Things Appear, the S&P 500 Isn’t Going Down. Here’s Why: Tom Bowley
No Matter How Bad Things Appear, the S&P 500 Isn’t Going Down. Here’s Why (stockcharts.com)
Microsoft Just Broke Out. Which Tech Stock Could Be Next? StockCharts
Microsoft Just Broke Out. Which Tech Stock Could Be Next? (stockcharts.com)
The S&P 500 May Look Strong, But the Market Beneath It Does Not: David Keller
The S&P 500 May Look Strong, But the Market Beneath It Does Not (stockcharts.com)
Beyond the AI Hype: Where Earnings Revisions Point Ahead of Q3 Reports: Mary Ellen McGonagle
Beyond the AI Hype: Where Earnings Revisions Point Ahead of Q3 Reports (stockcharts.com)
Record-breaking El Niño delays frost, drives Pacific storms: MSN
Record-breaking El Niño delays frost, drives Pacific storms (msn.com)
Technical Notes for Friday
Biotech ETF (BBH) moved above $244.35 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $405.34 completing a double bottom pattern.
Exelon (EXC) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $39.87 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $31.64 resuming an intermediate downtrend.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 1.00 on Friday, but dropped 1.20 last week to 27.60. It remained Oversold. Daily down trend was extended.
The short term (20 days) Barometer added 5.20 on Friday and gained 10.40 last week to 30.40. It remained Oversold. Daily uptrend was established.
The long term Barometer added 1.60 on Friday, but dropped 3.40 last week to 48.60. It remained Neutral
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 3.23 on Friday, but dropped 1.84 last week to 43.78. It remained Neutral
The short term (20 days) Barometer added 5.53 on Friday and gained 3.68 last week to 35.94. It remained Oversold.
The long term Barometer added 2.30 on Friday and gained 1.54 last week to 54.84. It remained Neutral.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications