Pre-opening Comments for Monday November 2^nd

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 23 points at 8:30 AM EST.

The Canadian Dollar was unchanged at US71.53 cents. Prime Minister Carney and President Trump agreed to resume trade negotiation after the mid-term U.S. elections

WTI Crude Oil dropped $4.31 to $99.81 per barrel on reports that the U.S. will defer attacks on Iran.

Este Lauder (EL) added $3.92 to $113.15 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter revenues and earnings.

Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com

Rocky start, broadened market, mixed continents, precious swoon, upward oil, rates diverged, majority lost: See:

https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/

EquityClock’s Market Outlook for November 2^nd

The S&P 500 Index has averaged a return of 2.1% in November with positive results realized 74% of the time over the past 50 years. See:

https://equityclock.com/2026/10/30/stock-market-outlook-for-november-2-2026/

The Bottom Line

Seasonal influences have a significant positive impact on U.S. equity markets at this time of year See the two charts below.

As Tom Bowley says: ‘Tis the Season To Be Bullish”

“Over the 47-year period, The S&P 500 in November has been higher more often (74%) than any other month and its average return of 2.09% is also higher than any other month”. See full text of his report released on Friday at ‘Tis the Season To Be Bullish (stockcharts.com)

According to www.EquityClock.com, history also shows that the best time to own the S&P 500 Index during the four year Presidential Election Cycle is in the six month period from the start of November to the end of April in a pre-election year. See seasonality chart below:

What about this year? Caveat! According to the Cambridge dictionary, “Caveat is a warning, caution, limitation, or condition that explains or modifies something. It tells you to pay attention to a specific detail or exception before you make a decision or accept information”. Consider the following:

· Third quarter results by S&P 500 companies are exceptionally strong. Analysts raised their third quarter revenue and earnings estimates again last week and are maintaining exceptionally high fourth quarter year-over-year estimates. They also raised 2027 earnings and revenue estimates. See consensus estimates later in this report.

· Stock price gains by non-technology S&P 500 have been exceptional. Since close on October 2^nd, equal weight S&P 500 units (RSP) have advanced 4.1% despite a 10.2% drop by Technology SPDRs (XLK), the heaviest weighting in the S&P 500 Index.

· S&P 500 Momentum Indicators based on percent of stocks trading above their 20, 50 and 200 day averages have gone from deeply Oversold at the beginning of October to Overbought on Friday. See their 20 day and 50 day charts at the end of this report.

· Results of the Mid-term elections tomorrow are likely to have a significant impact on U.S. equity prices, one way or the other. The latest polls show the Democrats with a substantial lead in the House of Representatives: Recent polls show the Democrats winning up to 235 seats, well above the 218 seat needed for a majority. The Senate has a much tighter race for 35 available seats: Republicans currently have control with 53 of the 100 seats. Polls show Republics leading in 15 seats and Democrats leading in 13 seats. Seven seats are considered “too close to call”. Democrats have a slight lead in six of the seven seats considered too close to call. U.S. equity markets likely will respond favourable on a split decision (i.e. Democrats winning the House and Republicans maintaining control over the Senate). U.S. equity markets are expected to move significantly lower if the Democrats win both the House and Senate, a scenario where Trump’s political agenda at best will be curtailed.

Earnings and Revenue Consensus for S&P 500 companies

(Source: www.FactSet.com )

Analysts made modest changes to their 2026/2027 earnings and revenue estimates last week after 60% of S&P 500 companies have reported third quarter results.

· Consensus for third quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 30.2% from 29.5%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 13.4% from 12.7%.

· Consensus for fourth quarter 2026 earnings gains slipped to 28.4% from 29.2%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 13.1% from13.0%.

· For all of 2026, consensus for earnings gains slipped to 32.9% from 33.1%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 13.0% from 12.8%.

Consensus changes for earnings and revenue gains into 2027 also were modest last week.

· For first quarter 2027, consensus for earnings gain slipped to 19.2% from 19.6%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 12.0% from 11.9%

· For second quarter 2027, consensus for earnings gains slipped to 2.8% from 2.9%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 8.0% from 7.8%

· For all of 2027, consensus for earnings gains increased to 16.3% from 16.0%. Consensus for revenue gains increase to 9.6% from 9.5%.

Economic News This Week

Source: www.Marketwatch.com

October ISM Manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday is expected to remain unchanged from September at 54.5

September Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.9% increase in August.

September Factory Orders released at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to increase 1.5% versus a 0.1% increase in August.

September U.S. Trade Deficit released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase to $107.8 billion from $105.6 billion in August.

September ISM Services PMI released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to ease to 54.6 from 54.9 in August.

October Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to increase 55,000 versus a 29,000 increase in September. October Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged from September at 4.2%. October Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.1% increase in September.

November University of Michigan Consumer Survey released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to drop to 47.2 from 46.3 in October.

Selected Earnings News This Week

Source: www.Marketwatch.com

Bolded stocks are TSX listed

Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Commodities

Sectors

Technical Notes

Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH) moved above $117.61 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Gold ETN (GLD) moved below $363.32 extending an intermediate downtrend. Silver Miners ETF (SIL) moved below $69.68 extending an intermediate downtrend.

BMO Emerging Markets ETF (ZEM.TO) moved below Cdn$30.76 and Emerging Markets iShares (EEM) moved below $60.76. Both completed double top patterns.

Semiconductor iShares (SOXX) moved below $463.78 completing a double top pattern.

Regeneron (REGN) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $722.02 extending an intermediate uptrend.

Intel (INTC) and Take Two (TTWO) moved below support completing double top patterns.

Links offered by valued providers

Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for October 31^st

https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/podcast

‘Tis the Season To Be Bullish: Tom Bowley

‘Tis the Season To Be Bullish (stockcharts.com)

Earnings Shock & Crypto Exploit Send Tech and Bitcoin Tumbling: Verified Investing

Earnings Shock & Crypto Exploit Send Tech and Bitcoin Tumbling – YouTube

Market Call: Brianne Gardner’s outlook on Canadian & U.S. Large Caps (Oct. 30, 2026)

Market Call: Brianne Gardner’s outlook on Canadian & U.S. Large Caps (Oct. 30, 2026) – YouTube

GOVERNMENT COULD MAKE LIFE EASIER BY LIFTING INVENTION SECRECY

Mark Leibovit

(1) GOVERNMENT COULD MAKE LIFE EASIER BY LIFTING INVENTION SECRECY (substack.com)

Is This a Market Top or a Rotation Away From Big Tech? Dave Keller

Is This a Market Top or a Rotation Away From Big Tech? (stockcharts.com)

AI Is Moving Beyond Tech. What’s Working Now? Ellen McGonagle

‘Tis the Season To Be Bullish (stockcharts.com)

Changes Last Week

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 4.20 on Friday but gained 2.80 last week to 61.60. It remained Overbought.

The short term (20 days) Barometer dropped 5.80 on Friday but added 1.00 last week to 70.00. It remained Overbought.

The long term Barometer dropped 4.00 on Friday but gained 3.20 last week to 61.40. It remained Overbought.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.93 on Friday, but gained 6.05 last week to 53.49. It remained Neutral.

The short term (20 days) Barometer dropped 4.65 on Friday and dropped 3.72 last week to 53.49. It remained Neutral.

The long term Barometer dropped 3.72 on Friday and dropped 4.19 last week to 46.51. It remained Neutral.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

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