{"id":158710,"date":"2022-08-22T02:22:00","date_gmt":"2022-08-22T06:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=158710"},"modified":"2022-08-22T08:47:38","modified_gmt":"2022-08-22T12:47:38","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-august-22nd-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2022\/08\/22\/tech-talk-for-monday-august-22nd-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday August 22nd 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday August 22nd<\/sup> <\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

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U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning.<\/b> S&P 500 futures were down 51 points in pre-opening trade. <\/em><\/p>\n

FedEx dropped $2.95 to $228.78<\/b> after Evercore added the stock to its tactical underperform list.<\/em><\/p>\n

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United Parcel Services fell $4.49 to 203.94<\/b> after Evercore lowered its rating from Outperform to In Line.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Canadian National Railway dropped $2.22 to $124.49<\/b> after Evercore lowered its rating from Outperform to In Line.<\/em><\/p>\n

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VF Corp fell $1.20 to $44.35<\/b> after Cowen downgraded the stock from Outperform to Market Perform. <\/em><\/p>\n

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EquityClock\u2019s Daily Comment <\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

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Headline reads \u201cGauges of risk failing at significant levels of resistance<\/strong>\u201d. Following is a link:<\/em><\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.equityclock.com\/2022\/08\/20\/stock-market-outlook-for-august-22-2022\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

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The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

History shows that U.S. equity markets during the second year of the U.S. Presidential cycle after a Democrat wins the White House from a Republican reach a brief peak near the end of August, followed by a brief correction to the end of September followed by resumption of an upward trend to the end of the year. <\/b><\/p>\n

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In the short term, equity markets are focusing on the action by central bank authorities.<\/b> The Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada indicated their relief last week that inflation pressures likely have peaked. They also indicated extension of their current policy of \u201cQuantitative Tightening\u201d by raising central bank lending rates until inflation rates show a clear downward trend. More information on U.S. monetary policy likely will be revealed at the Jackson Hole Symposium this week hosted by the Federal Reserve. Tone of comments by Federal Reserve officials are expected to offer little hope for a change in monetary policy in the short term. Look for U.S. equity prices to respond accordingly. See the Special Report below for additional insights.<\/p>\n

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Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Updates are scheduled to resume in Tech Talk on September 6th<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

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Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

July U.S. New Home Sales<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to drop to 575,000 units from 590,000 units in June. <\/p>\n

July Durable Goods Orders<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.5% versus a gain of 2.0% in June. Excluding Transportation Orders<\/b>, July Durable Goods Orders are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.4% in June.<\/p>\n

Jackson Hole Symposium<\/b> is held August 25th<\/sup> to August 27th<\/sup><\/p>\n

Next estimate of second quarter U.S. real GDP<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to change to -0.8% from the previous estimate at -0.9%.<\/p>\n

July U.S. Personal Income<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.6% versus a gain of 0.6% in June. July Personal Spending<\/b> is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 1.1% in June.<\/p>\n

Core July PCE Price Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.6% in June. July PCE Price Index year-over-year is expected to slip to 4.7% from 4.8% in June.<\/p>\n

August Michigan Consumer Sentiment<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase to 55.2 from 55.1 in June.<\/p>\n

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Selected Earnings News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Focus this week is on Canada\u2019s banks<\/b>.<\/p>\n

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Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for August 19th 2022<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

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Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for August 19th 2022<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

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Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for August 19th 2021 <\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

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Technical Scores<\/em><\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Calculated as follows:<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

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Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Higher highs and higher lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Not up or down)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Lower highs and lower lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

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Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2<\/em><\/p>\n

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score \u20132<\/em><\/p>\n

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Above 20 day moving average: Score 1<\/em><\/p>\n

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Below 20 day moving average: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

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Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1<\/em><\/p>\n

Mixed momentum indicators: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Down trending momentum indicators: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

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Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell\/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower. <\/em><\/p>\n

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Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower<\/em><\/p>\n

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Changes Last Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Special Report<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

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Don Vialoux<\/em><\/strong><\/font> was a guest on \u201cWolf on Bay Street<\/strong><\/em>\u201d on Saturday. Following are notes used during the interview (taped last Thursday).<\/p>\n

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North American equity markets have recorded significant gains since their lows on June 17th<\/sup>. Where do they go from here?<\/p>\n

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