{"id":160579,"date":"2022-10-31T02:22:00","date_gmt":"2022-10-31T06:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=160579"},"modified":"2022-10-31T08:43:47","modified_gmt":"2022-10-31T12:43:47","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-october-31st-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2022\/10\/31\/tech-talk-for-monday-october-31st-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday October 31st 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday October 31st<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were down 20 points in pre-opening trade.<\/em><\/p>\n

Emerson Electric added $0.57 to $87.97<\/b> after the company reported higher than consensus fiscal fourth quarter results. The company also announced sale of a division for $9.5 billion.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Keurig Dr. Pepper<\/b> slipped $0.72 to $38.83 after Truist downgraded the stock from Hold to Sell.<\/em><\/p>\n

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DoorDash <\/b>slipped $0.78 to $46.28 after JP Morgan lowered its target price from $105 to $70<\/em><\/p>\n

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Wayfair<\/b> eased $0.26 to $35.95 after Truist dropped its target price from $96 to $60.<\/em><\/p>\n

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EquityClock\u2019s Daily Comment<\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Headline reads \u201cWhile everyone starts to discount the long-term potential of the Technology sector, the technicals are still pointing to an ongoing positive trend<\/strong>\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.equityclock.com\/2022\/10\/29\/stock-market-outlook-for-october-31-2022\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

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The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Technical evidence last week of an intermediate peak by the U.S. Dollar Index prompted higher North American equity and commodity prices. <\/b>Focus this week is on news from the FOMC meeting released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday.<\/p>\n

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies<\/p>\n

Despite encouraging third quarter results released last week, analysts once again lowered earnings estimates beyond the third quarter. <\/b>According to www.factset.com<\/a> third quarter earnings on a year-over-year basis are expected to increase 2.2% (versus previous estimate at 1.5%) and revenues are expected to increase 9.3%. (versus 8.5% last week). Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 0.5% (versus previous 2.7%) and revenues are expected to increase 4.9% (versus previous estimate at 5.4%). For 2022 earnings are expected to increase 6.1% (versus previous 6.7%) and revenues are expected to increase 10.4% (versus previous 10.6%).<\/p>\n

Preliminary estimates for 2023 also moved lower. <\/b>According to www.factset.com<\/a> first quarter 2023 earnings are expected to increase 3.2% (versus previous estimate at 5.1%) and revenues are expected to increase 4.3% (versus previous estimate at 4.7%). Second quarter 2023 earnings are expected to increase 2.0% (versus previous estimate at 3.5%) and revenues are expected to increase 1,6% (versus previous estimate at 1.9%). For all of 2023, earnings are expected to increase 6.4% (versus previous estimate at 7.3%)) and revenues are expected to increase 3.7% (versus previous estimate at 4.0%).<\/p>\n

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Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

October Chicago PMI<\/b> released at 9:45 AM EDT on Monday is expected to increase to 47.0 from 45.7 in September. <\/p>\n

September U.S. Construction Spending<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to drop 0.5% versus a decline of 0.7% in August.<\/p>\n

October ISM Manufacturing Purchase Manager Index<\/b> released at 10:000 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to slip to 49.9 from 50.9 in September. <\/p>\n

FOMC Decision on interest rates and quantitative tightening<\/b> is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday. Consensus calls for a 0.75% increase in the Fed Fund Rate to 3.75%-4.00% rate. Consensus for asset purchases is continued purchases at a $95 billion monthly. Conference call is offered at 3:00 PM EDT.<\/p>\n

Bank of England\u2019s interest rate for large banks<\/b> released at 8:00 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase from 2.25% to 3.00%. <\/p>\n

Third quarter Non-farm Productivity<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.5% versus a drop of 4.1% in the second quarter. <\/p>\n

U.S. September Trade Deficit<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase to $71.10 billion from $67.40 billion in August.<\/p>\n

Canadian September Merchandise Trade<\/b> released at 8.30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase to $3.45 billion from $1.52 billion in August. <\/p>\n

October ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchase Managers Index<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to slip to 55.4 from 56.7 in September. <\/p>\n

October U.S. Non-farm Payrolls<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to drop to 200,000 from 263,000 in September. October Unemployment Rate<\/b> is expected to increase to 3.6% from 3.5% in September. October Average Hourly Earnings<\/b> are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.3% in September. On a year-over-year basis, October Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 4.7% versus a gain of 5.0% in September.<\/p>\n

Canadian October Employment<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 5,000 versus a gain of 21,100 in September. October Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 5.3% from 5.2% in September. <\/p>\n

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Selected Earnings News This Week<\/strong><\/font> <\/p>\n

Over half of S&P 500 companies have reported third quarter results to date. Another 167 S&P 500 companies (and two Dow Jones Industrial Average company) are scheduled to report this week. Fifteen S&P 60 companies are scheduled to report this week. <\/p>\n

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Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for October 28th<\/sup> 2022<\/p>\n

\"clip_image004\"<\/a>Green: Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

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Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for October 28th <\/sup>2022<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

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Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for October 28th<\/sup> 2021 <\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

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Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Greg Schnell<\/font><\/em><\/strong> videos ..<\/p>\n

5 Charts To Be Aware Of Now | Greg Schnell, CMT | Your Daily Five (10.28.22) – YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

Smooth-Running Engine or Friction Ahead? | The Canadian Technician | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

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How the stock market will react after the U.S. mid-term election<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=tpRZwwy0hCU<\/a><\/p>\n

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Michael Campbell\u2019s<\/font><\/em><\/strong> Money Talks for October 29th<\/sup><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s MoneyTalks \u2013 Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

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Bruce Fraser<\/font> and David Keller<\/font><\/em><\/strong> offer \u201cThe perfect chart for navigating 2022\u201d.<\/p>\n

The Perfect Chart for Navigating 2022 | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

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Links offered by Mark Bunting<\/font><\/em><\/strong> and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com<\/a><\/p>\n

"Roaring ’20s" Still Possible After "Mother of All Melt-ups" & Meltdown – Uncommon Sense Investor<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/uncommonsenseinvestor.com\/davis-rea-conference-call\/<\/a><\/p>\n

10 Best Stocks You’ve Never Heard Of | Kiplinger<\/a><\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s housing bubble has burst: David Rosenberg | Financial Post<\/a><\/p>\n

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Technical Scoop for October 31st<\/sup><\/font><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Reversal-legs-hike-bite-bubble-burst-better-GDP-upward-Dollar-precious-pressure-poised-energy-BOC-fifty.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n

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John Hopkins<\/font><\/em><\/strong> says \u201cThere\u2019s More Room to the Upside<\/em><\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n

The VIX Shows There’s More Room to the Upside | Top Advisors Corner | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

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Mary Ellen McGonagle<\/font><\/em><\/strong> says \u201dBreadth in the markets is expanding<\/em><\/strong>\u201d.<\/p>\n

Breadth in the Markets Is Expanding: Can the Markets Withstand the Drop In Big Tech Names? | The MEM Edge | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

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Tom Bowley<\/font><\/em><\/strong> says \u201cToday marks the beginning of an overwhelming bullish period<\/em><\/strong>\u201d.<\/p>\n

Today Marks The Beginning Of An Overwhelmingly Bullish Period | Trading Places with Tom Bowley | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

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Mish Schneider<\/font><\/em><\/strong> asks \u201cCan investors trust this rally<\/em>\u201d?<\/p>\n

Weekend Daily: Can Investors Trust This Rally? | Mish’s Market Minute | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

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David Keller<\/font><\/em><\/strong> notes that \u201cTech drives SPX above 3,900<\/em><\/strong>\u201d.<\/p>\n

Tech Drives SPX Above 3900 | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar (10.28.22) \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

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Mark Leibovit<\/font><\/em><\/strong> comment for October 26th<\/sup><\/p>\n

Will the Fed Hike Rates? \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

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Bob Hoye<\/font><\/em><\/strong> comment for October 28th<\/sup><\/p>\n

Choppy Markets But Precarious \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

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Rick Mills<\/font><\/em><\/strong> on the outlook for copper<\/p>\n

Copper: the most important metal we\u2019re running short of | Kitco News<\/a><\/p>\n

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Special Report<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

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Don Vialoux<\/font><\/em> appeared as a guest investment analyst on \u201cWolf on Bay Street<\/em>\u201d on Corus Radio 640 AM at 7:00 PM EDT on Saturday<\/b>. The interview was taped last Thursday. Prior to the appearance, notes for the interview were developed. Some, but not all of the notes were discussed during the interview. Following are the notes:<\/p>\n

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U.S and Canadian equity markets have just entered their strongest period of seasonal strength in the year<\/b>. During the past 102 years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has advanced 83% of the time from October 28th<\/sup> to January 11th<\/sup>. Equities respond favourably to increasing economic activity during the Christmas buying season.<\/p>\n

U.S. equity indices closely are following their mid-term U.S. Presidential election year cycle this year:<\/b> During the past 25 mid-term U.S. Presidential election years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained an average of 5.6% per period from September 28th<\/sup> to January 1st<\/sup>. Intermediate and long term momentum data for the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index bottomed on schedule this year on September 27th<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

Short term events are expected to have a significant impact on North American equity prices<\/b>. <\/p>\n