{"id":161852,"date":"2022-12-12T02:22:00","date_gmt":"2022-12-12T07:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=161852"},"modified":"2022-12-12T08:41:26","modified_gmt":"2022-12-12T13:41:26","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-december-12th-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2022\/12\/12\/tech-talk-for-monday-december-12th-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday December 12th 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday December 12th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were up 11 points in pre-opening trade.<\/em><\/p>\n

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Mackem is scheduled to speak at 3:40 PM EST<\/b>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Coupa Software jumped $13.04 to $75.13<\/b> after Thema Bravo offered to acquire the company for $81.00 per share. The cash deal is valued at $8 billion.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image001\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Horizon Theropeutics jumped $14.26 to $111.53<\/b> after Amgen offered to acquire the company for $116.50 per share. The cash deal is valued at $27.8 billion.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image002[1]\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Rivian Automotive slipped $0.65 to $26.64<\/b> after the company discontinued a joint venture with Mercedes Benz<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image003\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Nike added $0.03 to $109.45<\/b> after Stifel Nicolaus raised its target price from $110 to $132.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image004[1]\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

EquityClock\u2019s Daily Comment<\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Headline reads \u201cWholesalers are facing significant pressures heading into the new year as the stage is being set for an economic recession in 2023<\/strong>\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.equityclock.com\/2022\/12\/10\/stock-market-outlook-for-december-12-2022\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Technical Scoop<\/font><\/strong> <\/em><\/p>\n

from David Chapman<\/font><\/strong> and <\/em>www.EnrichedInvesting.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Potential-hole-better-inflation-hike-fear-gold-flat-stocks-down-soaring-gas-low-energy.pdf<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

North American equity markets closely have been following their seasonal patterns for this time of year<\/b>: modest weakness with higher than average volatility during the first half of December followed by the strongest three week period in the year frequently called \u201cThe Santa Claus rally\u201d. The Santa Claus rally from December 14th<\/sup> to January 6th<\/sup> is triggered when institutional activity in equity markets is curtailed by holidays and when relatively more active \u2018holiday infused\u201d individual investors are net buyers. Funds from annual bonuses received by individuals during this period also add to the yearend rally. <\/p>\n

Focus this week is on the FOMC meeting on monetary policy<\/b>. Results of the meeting are scheduled for release at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday. Consensus is calling from another 0.50% increase in the Fed Fund Rate to 4.25%-4.50%. Response to the announcement will depend on the message included with the expected increase in the Fed Fund Rate. <\/p>\n

The Federal Reserve message on Wednesday will depend on recent economic \u201cdata points\u201d.<\/b> Key data points released last week, notably the November Non-manufacturing ISM Purchasing Managers Index and the November Producer Price Index came in \u201chotter\u201d than expected. They implied a slightly higher than expected GDP growth rate and a stubbornly high inflation rate for the month of November. One remaining important data point is released prior the FOMC meeting, the November Consumer Price Index report on Tuesday morning. <\/p>\n

Traditionally, most tax loss selling pressures reach their peak this week.<\/b> Tax loss selling pressures this year are expected to be more intense than usual due to significant unrealized losses in 2022 that can be \u201cwritten off\u201d by selling before the end of the year. The investor\u2019s tax bill for 2022 is lowered when realized losses subsequently are applied against realized gains recorded in previous years.<\/p>\n

Will \u201cSanta Claus\u201d come to Bay Street and Wall Street this year? <\/b>News from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday likely will provide the best clue. <\/p>\n

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Analysts once again lowered earnings estimates for the remainder of 2022. <\/b>According to www.factset.com<\/a> fourth quarter earnings are expected to decrease 2.5% (versus previous decrease of 2.4%) and revenues are expected to increase 4.2% (versus previous increase of 4.4%). For all of 2022 earnings are expected to increase 5.1% (versus previous increase of 5.2%) and revenues are expected to increase 10.4% (versus previous 10.5%).<\/p>\n

Preliminary earnings estimates for 2023 also moved lower. <\/b>According to www.factset.com<\/a> first quarter 2023 earnings are expected to increase 1.1% (versus previous increase at 1.5%) and revenues are expected to increase 3.6% (versus previous increase at 3.8%). Second quarter 2023 earnings are expected to increase 0.6% (versus previous increase at 0.8%) and revenues are expected to increase 1.0% (versus previous increase at 1.3%). For all of 2023, earnings are expected to increase 5.5% (versus previous increase at 5.6%)) and revenues are expected to increase 3.3% (versus previous 3.4%)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem<\/b> is scheduled to speak at 3:40 PM EST. <\/p>\n

November Consumer Price Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in October. On a year-over-year basis<\/b> November Consumer Price Index is expected to 7.3% versus a gain of 7.7% in October. Excluding food and energy<\/b>, November Consumer Price Index is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.3% in October. On a year-over-year basis<\/b>, November Consumer Price Index is expected to gain 6.1% versus an increase of 6.3% in October.<\/p>\n

FOMC Statement on interest rates<\/b> released at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase the Fed Fund Rate by 0.50% to 4.25%-4.50%. Press conference is offered at 2:30 PM EST. <\/p>\n

December Empire State Manufacturing Survey<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to drop 6.50% versus a gain of 4.50 in November.<\/p>\n

December Philly Fed Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to improve to<\/p>\n

-6.2 from -19.4 in November.<\/p>\n

November U.S. Retail Sales<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected to slip 0.1% versus a gain of 1.3% in October. Excluding auto sales<\/b>, November U.S. Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 1.3% in October. <\/p>\n

November Capacity Utilization<\/b> released at 9:15 AM EST on Thursday is expected to slip to 79.8 from 79.9 in October. November Industrial Production<\/b> is expected to slip 0.2% versus a slip of 0.1% in October. <\/p>\n

October Business Inventories<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase 0.5% versus a gain of 0.4% in September. <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Selected Earnings News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image002\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for December 9th<\/sup> 2022<\/p>\n

\"clip_image004\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for December 9th<\/sup> 2022<\/p>\n

\"clip_image006\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for December 9th<\/sup> 2021 <\/p>\n

\"clip_image008\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Next Canadian Association for Technical Analysis Meeting<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

Next meeting is scheduled at 8:00 AM EST on Tuesday. Speaker is Jon Vialoux<\/strong><\/font>, author of www.EquityClock.com<\/a> . Connect below for information. Everyone is welcome <\/p>\n

CATA Meeting Dec 13 – Jon Vialoux – Events – Canadian Association for Technical Analysis (clubexpress.com)<\/a><\/p>\n

Not a member of CATA? See: https:\/\/canadianata.ca\/content.aspx?page_id=4&club_id=71614<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s<\/em><\/strong><\/font> Money Talks (features yearend tax tips by Tim Cestnick<\/font><\/em><\/strong>)<\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s MoneyTalks \u2013 Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Cramer\u2019s<\/font><\/em><\/strong> game plan for the trading week of December 12th<\/sup><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Krf9LHzBW3s<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Greg Schnell<\/font><\/em><\/strong> notes \u201cEnergy names implode<\/em><\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n

Energy Names Implode | The Canadian Technician | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

David Keller<\/font><\/em><\/strong> notes \u201cMarkets whimpers into weekend<\/em><\/strong>\u201d. <\/p>\n

Market Whimpers Into Weekend | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar (12.09.22) \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Erin Swenlin<\/font><\/em><\/strong> says \u201cMarket weak, time to short<\/em><\/strong>\u201d.<\/p>\n

Market Weak, Time To Short | Erin Swenlin | Your Daily Five (12.09.22) \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Mary Ellen McGonagle<\/font><\/em><\/strong> says \u201cGrowth falters, but these areas shine<\/em><\/strong>\u201d. Includes favourable favourable comments on semiconductor and precious metal stocks.<\/p>\n

Growth Falters, But These Areas Shine | Mary Ellen McGonagle | The MEM Edge (12.09.22) \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Josh Brown<\/font><\/em><\/strong> says \u201cIf we get through this week, we could rip into the end of the year<\/em><\/strong>\u201d.<\/p>\n

If we get through next week, we could rip into the end of the year, says Ritholtz’s Josh Brown \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Mark Leibovit\u2019s<\/font><\/em><\/strong> weekly comment for December 8th<\/sup><\/p>\n

Interest Rates, Inflation, Gold, Silver, USD \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Links from Mark Bunting<\/font><\/em><\/strong> and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com<\/a><\/p>\n

No Trough Yet but Emerging Markets & Japan Leading the Way Up – Uncommon Sense Investor<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/uncommonsenseinvestor.com\/investment-outlook-2023\/<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

The 8 Best Energy Stocks to Buy Now | Kiplinger<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

NEW WEBCAST | Jim Rickards + Keith McCullough Pro-to-Pro (hedgeye.com)<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/u><\/p>\n

Victor Adair\u2019s<\/font><\/em><\/strong> Trading Notes for December 10th<\/sup><\/p>\n

Trading Desk Notes for December 10, 2022 – The Trading Desk Notes by Victor Adair<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ross Clark<\/font><\/em><\/strong> on Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar and Oil<\/p>\n

This Week in Money \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bob Hoye<\/font><\/em><\/strong> says Crypto exchanged not the only one limiting withdrawals<\/p>\n

Crypto Exchanges Not the Only Ones Limiting Withdrawals \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical Scores<\/em><\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Calculated as follows:<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Higher highs and higher lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Not up or down)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Lower highs and lower lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2<\/em><\/p>\n

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score \u20132<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1<\/em><\/p>\n

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Below 20 day moving average: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1<\/em><\/p>\n

Mixed momentum indicators: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Down trending momentum indicators: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell\/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower. <\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Changes Last Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image010\"<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n


<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Technical Notes for Friday<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

T-Mobile $TMUS a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $143.08 completing a double top pattern.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image011\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Schlumberger $SLB an S&P 100 stock moved below $48.91 completing a double top pattern.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image012\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image013\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 2.40 on Friday and 13.00 last week to78.00. It remains Overbought. Trend has turned down.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image014\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer dropped 1.60 on Friday and 7.60 last week to 56.20. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Trend has turned down.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"clip_image015\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer added 0.42 on Friday, but dropped 16.53 last week to 68.22. It remains Overbought. Trend has turned down.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image016\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer slipped 0.42 on Friday and dropped 11.02 last week to 45.76. It remains Neutral. Trend has turned down. <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b> Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at<\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com<\/em><\/a> are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday December 12th U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 11 points in pre-opening trade. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Mackem is scheduled to speak at 3:40 PM EST. Coupa Software jumped $13.04 to $75.13 after Thema Bravo offered to acquire the company for $81.00 per […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-161852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161852","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=161852"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161852\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=161852"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=161852"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=161852"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}