{"id":163618,"date":"2023-02-13T02:22:00","date_gmt":"2023-02-13T07:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=163618"},"modified":"2023-02-13T08:39:18","modified_gmt":"2023-02-13T13:39:18","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-february-13th-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2023\/02\/13\/tech-talk-for-monday-february-13th-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday February 13th 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday February 13th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were up 9 points in pre-opening trade. <\/em><\/p>\n

Caterpillar dropped $3.37 to $244.30<\/b> after Baird downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral. <\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image001\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Check Point Software added $6.02 to $133.18<\/b> after reporting higher than consensus quarterly results.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image002[1]\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Five Below gained $2.46 to $204.10<\/b> after Roth MKM upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy. <\/em><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

EquityClock\u2019s Daily Comment<\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Headline reads \u201cThe rejection of Bitcoin and Ethereum from their declining 50-week moving averages hints of the conclusion to the risk-on rally in the market to start the year\u201d.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.equityclock.com\/2023\/02\/11\/stock-market-outlook-for-february-13-2023\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Focus this week is release of a series of U.S. January economic reports:<\/b> CPI on Tuesday, Retail Sales on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. Their results will have a heavy weight on likely response by the FOMC on its policy for the Fed Fund Rate. <\/p>\n

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Analysts increased fourth quarter earnings and revenue estimates slightly from our last report on February 6th<\/sup>. <\/b>According to www.factset.com<\/a> fourth quarter earnings are expected to decrease 4.9% (versus previous decrease of 5.3%) but revenues are expected to increase 4.6% (versus previous increase of 4.3%). For all of 2022 earnings are expected to increase 4.2% and revenues are expected to increase 10.6%.<\/p>\n

Preliminary estimates for 2023 continue to move lower. <\/b>According to www.factset.com<\/a> first quarter 2023 earnings are expected to decrease 5.1% (versus previous decrease of 4.2%) but revenues are expected to increase 1.9% (versus previous increase of 2.0%). Second quarter 2023 earnings are expected to decrease 3.3% (versus previous decrease at 2.9%) and revenues are expected to decrease 0.1%. Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 3.4% and revenues are expected to increase 1.3% (versus previous increase of 1.4%). Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 10.1% (versus previous increase of 10.5%) and revenues are expected to increase 3.7% (versus previous increase of 4.0%). For all of 2023, earnings are expected to increase 2.5% (versus previous increase of 3.0%) and revenues are expected to increase 2.4% (versus previous increase of 2.5%)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

January Consumer Price Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a decline of 0.1% in December. On a year-over-year basis, January Consumer Price Index is expected to increase 6.2% versus a gain of 6.5% in December. Excluding food and energy sales,<\/b> January Consumer Price Index is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.4% in December. On a year-over-year basis, January core CPI is expected to increase 5.5% versus a gain of 5.7% in December.<\/p>\n

January Retail Sales<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase 1.5% versus a drop of 1.1% in December. Excluding auto sales<\/b>, January Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.7% versus a drop of 1.1% in December.<\/p>\n

February Empire State Manufacturing Survey<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to drop 20.00 versus a drop of 32.90 in January. <\/p>\n

January Capacity Utilization<\/b> released at 9:15 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase to 79.1 from 78.8 in December. January Industrial Production<\/b> is expected to increase 0.5% versus a drop of 0.7% in December. <\/p>\n

December Business Inventories<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in November. <\/p>\n

January Producer Price Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a drop of 0.5% in December. On a year-over-year basis, January Producer Price Index is expected to increase 5.4% versus a gain of 6.2% in December. Excluding food and energy prices,<\/b> January PPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.1% in December. On a year-over-year basis, January core PPI is expected to increase 4.9% versus a gain of 5.5% in December.<\/p>\n

February Philly Fed Manufacturing Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to drop 6.7 versus a drop of 8.9 in January.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Selected Earnings News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Sixty nine percent of S&P 500 companies<\/b> have reported quarterly results to date. Another 61 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report this week (including two Dow Jones Industrial Average companies: Coca Cola and Cisco).<\/p>\n

Another nine TSX 60 companies<\/b> are scheduled to release quarterly results. <\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for Feb.10th<\/sup> 2023<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for Feb.10th<\/sup> 2023<\/p>\n

\"clip_image006\"<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for Feb.10th<\/sup> 2023 <\/p>\n

\"clip_image008\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

CATA Presentation<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Next presentation by the Canadian Association for Technical Analysis is offered at 8:00 PM EST on Tuesday February 14th<\/sup>. Presenter is Don Vialoux. Everyone is welcome. Not a member of CATA? More information is available at https:\/\/canadianata.ca\/<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical Scores<\/em><\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

Calculated as follows:<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Higher highs and higher lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Not up or down)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Lower highs and lower lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2<\/em><\/p>\n

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score \u20132<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1<\/em><\/p>\n

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Below 20 day moving average: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1<\/em><\/p>\n

Mixed momentum indicators: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Down trending momentum indicators: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell\/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower. <\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Changes Last Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

Mark Leibovit\u2019s<\/font><\/em><\/strong> weekly column<\/p>\n

Copper, Cobalt, Rare Earths, Stock Markets \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

What Might Outperform In A New Wave Of Inflation? | Mish Schneider<\/font><\/em><\/strong> | Your Daily Five <\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=0WsIioybrNs<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s<\/font><\/em><\/strong> Money Talks for February 11th<\/sup><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s MoneyTalks \u2013 Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

David Keller<\/font><\/em><\/strong> discusses three concerning signs for stocks<\/p>\n

Three Concerning Signs for Stocks | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tom McClellan<\/font><\/em><\/strong> notes \u201cGolden Cross carries some little known magic<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n

Golden Cross Carries Some Little-Known Magic | Top Advisors Corner | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dow Over NASDAQ as Value Rises | David Keller<\/font><\/em><\/strong>, CMT | The Final Bar <\/p>\n

Dow Over Nasdaq as Value Rises | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar (02.10.23) \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bob Hoye\u2019s<\/font><\/em><\/strong> Weekly Comment<\/p>\n

Not Enough Copper for EV Demand, Lithium, Coal \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Josef Schachter<\/font><\/em><\/strong> explains \u201cWhy Oil Could Hit $200 a Barrel<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n

Why Oil Could Hit $200 a Barrel \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Victor Adair\u2019s<\/font><\/em><\/strong> Trading Desk Notes For February 11, 2023<\/p>\n

Trading Desk Notes For February 11, 2023 \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ready for the Pullback | TG Watkins<\/font><\/em><\/strong> | Moxie Indicator Minutes (02.10.23)<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=JaumVlFBf9Y<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Mark Bunting<\/font><\/em><\/strong> and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com<\/a> discusses a turnaround opportunity<\/p>\n

Turnaround Just Getting Started After 2,900% Surge – Uncommon Sense Investor<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical Scoop by David Chapman<\/font><\/em><\/strong> and www.enrichedinvesting.com<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Surprising-bullishness-notorious-February-eery-gold-Dollar-break-blockbuster-jobs-soaring-energy.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/u><\/p>\n

10 Stocks for a Recession | Morningstar<\/font><\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

The Stock Market Rally Is About to Crumble, According to Goldman Sachs (businessinsider.com)<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

<\/u><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical Notes from Friday<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Exxon Mobil $XOM a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $117.78 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image011\"<\/a><\/p>\n

American Tower $AMT an S&P 100 stock moved below $212.64 completing a double top pattern.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image012\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Agnico-Eagle Mines $AEM.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$68.26 extending an intermediate downtrend.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image013\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Magna International $MG.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below intermediate support at Cdn$78.48 and Cdn73.64 following released of lower than consensus fourth quarter results.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image014\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image015\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer added 3.20 on Friday, but dropped 4.00 last week to 65.60. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image016\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer added 2.40 on Friday, but dropped 2.40 last week to 70.80. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image017\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer added 0.85 on Friday, but dropped 5.08 last week to 62.29. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image018\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday, but dropped 4.23 last week. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b> Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at<\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com<\/em><\/a> are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday February 13th U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 9 points in pre-opening trade. Caterpillar dropped $3.37 to $244.30 after Baird downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral. Check Point Software added $6.02 to $133.18 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly results. Five Below gained […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-163618","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/163618","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=163618"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/163618\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=163618"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=163618"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=163618"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}