{"id":164397,"date":"2023-03-13T02:22:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-13T06:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=164397"},"modified":"2023-03-13T08:50:44","modified_gmt":"2023-03-13T12:50:44","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-march-13th-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2023\/03\/13\/tech-talk-for-monday-march-13th-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday March 13th 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday March 13th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were down 11 points in pre-opening trade.<\/em><\/p>\n

Index futures weakened<\/b> despite regulatory authorities taking control of Silicon Valley Bank after the bank experienced a run on its assets. <\/em><\/p>\n

First Republic Bank plunged $49.26 to $32.50<\/b> on solvency concerns. <\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image001[1]\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Seagen advanced $31.79 to $204.40<\/b> after Pfizer offered to acquire the company<\/em> at $229 per share cash. Value of the offer is estimated at $43 billion.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image002[1]\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Under Armour slipped $0.06 to $8.85<\/b> after JP Morgan downgraded the stock from Overweight to Neutral. <\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image003\"<\/a><\/p>\n

JD.com dropped $0.33 to $40.14<\/b> after Susquehanna cut its target price from $62 to $45.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image004[1]\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

EquityClock\u2019s Daily Comment<\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Headline reads \u201cTreasury bond funds increasingly carving out significant bottoming patterns, showing performance akin to past pre-recessionary periods<\/strong>\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.equityclock.com\/2023\/03\/11\/stock-market-outlook-for-march-13-2023\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Focus this week is on U.S. economic news<\/b> (CPI on Tuesday and PPI\/Retail Sales on Wednesday) as well as fall out from failure of Silicon Valley Bank.<\/p>\n

A spike in the VIX Index was notable on Friday when the news on Silicon Valley Bank was released.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image001\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Earnings estimates for 2023 continued to move slightly lower and revenue estimates continued to move slightly higher. <\/b>According to www.factset.com<\/a> first quarter 2023 earnings are expected to decrease 6.1% (versus previous decrease of 5.9%) but revenues are expected to increase 2.0% (versus previous increase of 1.9%). Second quarter 2023 earnings are expected to decrease 3.9% and revenues are expected to increase 0.1%.(versus previous decrease of 0.1%) Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 2.7% (versus a previous increase of 2.9%) and revenues are expected to increase 1.6% (versus previous increase of 1.4%). Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 9.6% and revenues are expected to increase 3.8% (versus previous increase of 3.2%). For all of 2023, earnings are expected to increase 1.9% (versus previous increase of 2.1%) and revenues are expected to increase 2.1% (versus previous increase of 2.0%)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.investing.com<\/a><\/p>\n

February Consumer Price Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.5% in January. On a year-over-year basis, February CPI is expected to increase 6.0% versus a gain of 6.4% in January. Excluding food and energy, February Consumer Price Index is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.4% in January. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI is expected to increase 5.5% versus an increase of 5.6% in January. <\/p>\n

February Producer Price Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.7% in January. On a year-over-year basis February PPI is expected to increase 5.5% versus 6.0% in January. Excluding food and energy, February Producer Price Index is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.5% in January. On a year-over-year basis, core PPI is expected to increase 4.9% versus a gain of 5.4% in January. <\/p>\n

February Retail Sales<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to decrease 012% versus a gain of 3.0% in January. Excluding auto sales, February Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 2.3% in January. <\/p>\n

March Empire State Manufacturing Survey<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to be -7.50 versus -5.80 in February.<\/p>\n

January Business Inventories<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.3% in December. <\/p>\n

February Housing Starts<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to slip to 1,305.000 units from 1,309,000 units in January<\/p>\n

March Philly Fed<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to be -7.4 versus -24.3 in February.<\/p>\n

February Capacity Utilization<\/b> released at 9:15 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase to 78.5 from 78.3 in January. February Industrial Production<\/b> is expected to increase 0.4% versus unchanged in January. <\/p>\n

March Michigan Consumer Sentiment<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to remain unchanged from February at 67.0. <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Selected Earnings Reports This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.investing.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Four S&P 500 companies and three TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report this week.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image002\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for March 10th<\/sup> 2023<\/p>\n

\"clip_image004\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for March 10th<\/sup> 2023<\/p>\n

\"clip_image006\"<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/b><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for March 10th<\/sup> 2023 <\/p>\n

\"clip_image008\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical Scores<\/em><\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

Calculated as follows:<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Higher highs and higher lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Not up or down)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Lower highs and lower lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2<\/em><\/p>\n

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score \u20132<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1<\/em><\/p>\n

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Below 20 day moving average: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1<\/em><\/p>\n

Mixed momentum indicators: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Down trending momentum indicators: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell\/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower. <\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Changes Last Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image010\"<\/a><\/p>\n


<\/b><\/p>\n

Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s<\/em> Money Talks for March 11th<\/sup><\/font><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s MoneyTalks \u2013 Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Greg Schnell<\/font><\/em><\/strong> says \u201cWobble, Wobble<\/strong><\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n

Wobble, Wobble | The Canadian Technician | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Erin Swenlin<\/font><\/em><\/strong>: \u201cWill plunging markets continue<\/strong><\/em>\u201d?<\/p>\n

Will Plunging Markets Continue? | Erin Swenlin | The Final Bar (03.10.23) \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Negative News Reverses Uptrend | Mary Ellen McGonagle<\/font><\/em><\/strong> | The MEM Edge (03.10.23)<\/p>\n

Negative News Reverses Uptrend | Mary Ellen McGonagle | The MEM Edge (03.10.23) \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Mark Leibovit<\/font><\/em><\/strong> comment on March 10th<\/sup><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.howestreet.com\/2023\/03\/crude-oil-us-dollar-gold-silver-bitcoin-mark-leibovit\/<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bob Hoye<\/font><\/em><\/strong> says \u201cCollapsed Silicon Valley is a classic failure\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Collapsed Silicon Valley Bank a \u201cClassic\u201d Failure \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Josef Schachter<\/font><\/em><\/strong> says \u201cStock market could collapse 15-20% more<\/em><\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n

Stock Market Could Collapse 15-20% More \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Victor Adair\u2019s<\/font><\/em><\/strong> Trading Notes for March 11th<\/sup><\/p>\n

Trading Desk Notes For March 11, 2023 \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Links offered by Mark Bunting<\/font><\/em><\/strong> and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Explaining the Inverted Yield Curve & Why It Matters – Uncommon Sense Investor<\/a><\/p>\n

Five Reasons These Three Companies Will Benefit from ChatGPT – Uncommon Sense Investor<\/a><\/p>\n

Silicon Valley Bank failure raises fear of broader financial contagion – The Washington Post<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The 12 Best Stocks to Buy Now | Kiplinger<\/p>\n

Ross Clark, Martin Armstrong<\/font><\/em><\/strong> and Victor Adair<\/font><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.howestreet.com\/2023\/03\/us-bank-failures-precious-metals-digital-currencies-interest-rates-oil-gold-martin-armstrong-victor-adair-ross-clark-this-week-in-money\/<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical Scoop by David Chapman<\/font><\/em><\/strong> and www.enrichedinvesting.com<\/a><\/p>\n

SVB surprise, iceberg tip, gold spark, bond rally Dollar drop, energy decline, debt war, Ukraine threat<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical Notes for Friday<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

U.S. sector charts breaking intermediate support on Friday: <\/p>\n

Materials SPDR $XLB moved below$78.87 completing a double top pattern.<\/p>\n

Financial SPDRs $XLF moved below intermediate support at $33.19<\/p>\n

Industrial SPDRs $XLI moved support at $99.40<\/p>\n

Dow Jones Transportation Average iShares completed a double top pattern.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image011\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"clip_image012\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"clip_image013\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"clip_image014\"<\/a><\/p>\n

U.S. industry ETFs breaking intermediate support on Friday:<\/p>\n

U.S. Brokers iShares $ moved below intermediate support at $94.10<\/p>\n

Auto ETF $CARZ moved below $47.08 completing a double top pattern.<\/p>\n

Medical Devices iShares $IHI moved below intermediate support at $50.98<\/p>\n

Steel ETF $SLX moved below intermediate support at $63.63<\/p>\n

Timber iShares $WOOD moved below $72.21 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image015\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"clip_image016\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"clip_image017\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"clip_image018\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"clip_image019\"<\/a><\/p>\n

S&P 100 stocks that moved below intermediate support\/extended an intermediate downtrend included SLB, GS, USB, WFC, NKE, CVX, XOM, SPG, FDX, MMM and CAT<\/p>\n

\"clip_image020\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"clip_image021\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"clip_image022\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"clip_image023\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"clip_image024\"<\/a><\/p>\n

NASDAQ 100 stocks that moved below intermediate support\/extended an intermediate downtrend included DOCU, INTU, EA, KLAC and IDXX<\/p>\n

\"clip_image025\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"clip_image026\"<\/a><\/p>\n

TSX 60 stocks that moved below intermediate support\/extended an intermediate downtrend included TD, SLF, WEED, BN, MRU and SAP<\/p>\n

\"clip_image027\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"clip_image028\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image029\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer plunged 9.00 on Friday and 36.20 last week to 17.60. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a drop below 40.00. Down trend was extended.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image030\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer dropped 6.00 on Friday and 21.40 last week to 43.80. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a move below 60.00. Downtrend was extended.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"clip_image031\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 11.49 on Friday and 31.49 last week to 28.51. It changed from Overbought to Oversold on a drop below 40.00. Down trend was extended.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image032\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer dropped 4.68 on Friday and 13.61 last week to 52.77. It changed form Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Down trend was extended. <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b> Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at<\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com<\/em><\/a> are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday March 13th U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 11 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures weakened despite regulatory authorities taking control of Silicon Valley Bank after the bank experienced a run on its assets. First Republic Bank plunged $49.26 to $32.50 on solvency concerns. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-164397","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/164397","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=164397"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/164397\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=164397"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=164397"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=164397"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}