{"id":164625,"date":"2023-03-20T02:22:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-20T06:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=164625"},"modified":"2023-03-20T08:52:33","modified_gmt":"2023-03-20T12:52:33","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-march-20th-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2023\/03\/20\/tech-talk-for-monday-march-20th-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday March 20th 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday March 20th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning.<\/b> S&P 500 futures were up 1 point at 8:30 AM EDT. <\/em><\/p>\n

Concerns about Credit Suisse\u2019 viability was relieved<\/b> after UBS acquired the company for $3.2 billion<\/em><\/p>\n

CF Industries slipped $0.43 to $70.50<\/b> after announcing acquisition of an ammonia plant in Louisiana for $1.675 billion.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Foot Locker added $0.03 to $42.29<\/b> after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter results. The company also lowered guidance for the first quarter. <\/em><\/p>\n

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Prologis added $0.97 to $117.01<\/b> after Mizuho initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $140 target.<\/em><\/p>\n

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First Republic dropped $4.13 to $18.90<\/b> after S&P downgraded its credit rating from BB+ to B+.<\/em><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

EquityClock\u2019 s Daily Comment<\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Headline reads \u201cShipping activity is struggling, typically a hallmark indicator of an economic slowdown\/recession on the horizon<\/strong>\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.equityclock.com\/2023\/03\/18\/stock-market-outlook-for-march-20-2023\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/font><\/p>\n

Focus this week is on news from the FOMC meeting released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday<\/b>. Consensus calls for another increase in target for the Fed Fund Rate by 0.25% to 4.75%-5.00%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Earnings and revenue estimates changed slightly last week. <\/b>According to www.factset.com<\/a> first quarter 2023 earnings are expected to decrease 6.1% but revenues are expected to increase 1.9% (versus previous increase of 2.0%). Second quarter 2023 earnings are expected to decrease 3.8% (versus previous increase of 3.9%) and revenues are expected to increase 0.1%. Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 2.9% (versus a previous increase of 2.7%) and revenues are expected to increase 1.6%. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 9.7% (versus previous increase of 9.6%) and revenues are expected to increase 3.8%. For all of 2023, earnings are expected to increase 1.9% and revenues are expected to increase 2.1%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.investing.com<\/a><\/p>\n

February Canadian Consumer Price Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.7% versus a gain of 0.5% in January. On a year-over-year basis, February CPI is expected to increase 5.4% versus a gain of 5.9% in January. <\/p>\n

January Canadian Retail Sales<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.7% versus a gain of 0.5% in December.<\/p>\n

FOMC announcement on the Fed Fund Rate<\/b> is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday. Consensus calls for a 0.25% increase to target 4.75%-5.00%. <\/p>\n

Conference call follows.. <\/p>\n

February U.S. Existing Home Sales<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase to 4.18 million units from 4.00 million units in January. <\/p>\n

February Durable Goods Orders<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase 0.9% versus a decline of 4.5% in January. Excluding Transportation Orders, February Durable Goods Orders are expected to increase 0.3% versus a decline of 0.8% in January.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Selected Earnings News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.investing.com<\/a><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for March 17th<\/sup> 2023<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for March 17th<\/sup> 2023<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for March 17th<\/sup> 2023 <\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Source for Seasonal ratings: <\/strong><\/em>www.equityclock.com<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Technical Scores<\/em><\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Calculated as follows:<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Higher highs and higher lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Not up or down)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Lower highs and lower lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2<\/em><\/p>\n

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score \u20132<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1<\/em><\/p>\n

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Below 20 day moving average: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1<\/em><\/p>\n

Mixed momentum indicators: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Down trending momentum indicators: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell\/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower. <\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Changes Last Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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<\/b><\/p>\n

Technical Notes<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Gold SPDRs $GLD moved above $181.73 extending an intermediate uptrend. <\/p>\n

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Technology SPDRs $XLK moved above $144.59 extending an intermediate uptrend.<\/p>\n

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Solar ETF $TAN moved below intermediate support at $70.77.<\/p>\n

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FedEx $FDX an S&P 100 stock moved above $216.18 extending an intermediate uptrend. The company reported higher than consensus fiscal third quarter earnings. <\/p>\n

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Dollar Tree $DLTR a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $137.34 extending an intermediate downtrend.<\/p>\n

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Imperial Oil $IMO.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below $61.14 extending an intermediate downtrend.<\/p>\n

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The VIX Index remains elevated above 22%.<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s<\/strong><\/em><\/font> Money Talks for March 18th<\/sup><\/p>\n

Note comments on the economy by James Thorne<\/font><\/em><\/strong> and on energy by Josef Schachter.<\/font><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s MoneyTalks \u2013 Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Mark Leibovit\u2019s<\/font><\/em><\/strong> Weekly Comment<\/p>\n

Maybe You Should Be Doing What Warren Buffet is Doing \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Gold gets a shine: Greg Schnell<\/font><\/em><\/strong> March 17th<\/sup><\/p>\n

Gold Gets A Shine | The Canadian Technician | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Market Trend Model Turns Bearish: David Keller<\/font><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Market Trend Model Turns Bearish | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Larry Williams<\/font><\/em><\/strong> Special Presentation for StockCharts.com<\/p>\n

Larry Williams | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Here’s What the Markets are Telling Us – And It’s Not All Bad: Mary Ellen McGonagle<\/font><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

March 17, 2023 <\/p>\n

Here’s What the Markets are Telling Us – And It’s Not All Bad | The MEM Edge | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Crude Oil Collapses – Will It Move Even Lower? Erin Swenlin<\/font><\/em><\/strong> March 15, 2023<\/p>\n

Crude Oil Collapses – Will It Move Even Lower? | DecisionPoint | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bonds Rally in Flight to Safety | David Keller<\/font><\/em><\/strong>, CMT | The Final Bar (03.17.23)<\/p>\n

Bonds Rally in Flight to Safety | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar (03.17.23) \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bob Hoye<\/font><\/em><\/strong>: <\/b>March 17, 2023 | Can US Banking System Weather SVB Collapse?<\/p>\n

Can US Banking System Weather SVB Collapse? \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Mike Swanson<\/font><\/em><\/strong>: Mar 16, 2023: Banking Concerns Should See a Big Boost in <\/p>\n

Banking Concerns Should See a Big Boost in Gold \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Victor Adair<\/font><\/em><\/strong>: Trading Post Notes for March 18th<\/sup><\/p>\n

Trading Desk Notes For March 18, 2023 \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Mark Bunting<\/font><\/em><\/strong> and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com<\/a> comments<\/p>\n

What’s Causing the Largest Moves on Record for Safe Haven Assets? – Uncommon Sense Investor<\/a><\/p>\n

Why Dangerous Assumptions Are Embedded in "Cheap" Stocks – Uncommon Sense Investor<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John O’Connell’s<\/font><\/em><\/strong> Market Outlook – John O’Connell’s Market Outlook (bnnbloomberg.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical Scoop from David Chapman<\/font><\/em><\/strong> and www.enrichedinvesting.com<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Volatile-week-tech-strength-golden-safety-soaring-bonds-flattened-curve-recession-hint-Fed-protection.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image018\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer slipped 4.00 on Friday, but gained 2.80 last week to 20.40. It remains Oversold, but is showing early signs of bottoming.<\/p>\n

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The long term Barometer dropped 5.60 on Friday and 4.80 last week to 39.00. It changed on Friday from Neutral to Oversold on a drop below 40.00. Trend remains down.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image020\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer added 1.28 on Friday and 1.28 last week to 29.79. It remains Overbought. <\/p>\n

\"clip_image021\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer dropped 2.98 on Friday and 3.41 last week to 49.36. It remains Neutral. Trend is down.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b> Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at<\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com<\/em><\/a> are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday March 20th U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 1 point at 8:30 AM EDT. Concerns about Credit Suisse\u2019 viability was relieved after UBS acquired the company for $3.2 billion CF Industries slipped $0.43 to $70.50 after announcing acquisition of an ammonia plant in Louisiana […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-164625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/164625","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=164625"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/164625\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=164625"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=164625"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=164625"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}