{"id":169326,"date":"2023-09-05T02:22:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-05T06:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=169326"},"modified":"2023-09-05T08:52:56","modified_gmt":"2023-09-05T12:52:56","slug":"tech-talk-for-tuesday-september-5th-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2023\/09\/05\/tech-talk-for-tuesday-september-5th-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Tuesday September 5th 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday September 5th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were down 11 points at 8:30 EDT.<\/em><\/p>\n

Oracle added $1.78 to $122.71<\/b> after Barclay\u2019s upgraded the stock to Outperform.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image001\"<\/a><\/p>\n

American Express gained $0.68 to $160.30<\/b> after Royal Bank upgraded the stock to Outperform.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image002[1]\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Domino\u2019s Pizza advanced $4.86 to $396.00<\/b> after TD Cowen upgraded the stock to Outperform.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image003[1]\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

EquityClock\u2019s Daily Comment<\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Headline reads \u201cWhile the market perceived the economic data released on Friday to be strong, we have an opposing view<\/strong>\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n

https:\/\/equityclock.com\/2023\/09\/02\/stock-market-outlook-for-september-5-2023\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

A word of caution<\/b>! North American equity indices have a history of reaching a short term peak near the middle of September followed by the weakest period in the year to the second week in October. Charts on the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average show a similar pattern. <\/p>\n

\"clip_image002\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The spike in long term bond yields on Friday was a reminder that the Federal Reserve intends to maintain high interest rates at current or higher levels into Fall. Focus increasingly is on news from the next FOMC meeting released on September 20th<\/sup>. <\/p>\n

\"clip_image003\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Increasing interest rates on Friday prompted the U.S. Dollar Index to close at 104.19, the highest close since March 9th<\/sup><\/p>\n

\"clip_image004\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.Factset.com<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Second quarter results came in slightly better than consensus.<\/b> Earnings dropped 4.1% on a year-over-year basis (versus consensus drop of 5.2% in our last report on August 8th<\/sup>). Revenues increased 0.9% on a year-over-year basis (versus consensus gain of 0.6% on August 8th<\/sup>).<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Consensus estimates for remainder of 2023 have increased slightly since August 8th<\/sup>.<\/b> Consensus for the third quarter calls for an earnings increase on a year-over-year basis of 0.5% (versus previous estimated gain of 0.2%). Third quarter revenues are expected to increase 1.6% (versus previous estimate at 1.3%). Consensus for the fourth quarter calls for an 8.2% increase in earnings (versus previous gain of 7.6%). Fourth quarter revenues are expected to increase 3.7% (versus previous gain of 3.4%). For all of 2023, consensus calls for an earnings increase of 1.2% (versus previous gain of 0.8%). Revenues are expected to increase 2.4% (versus previous gain of 2.5%).<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

The recovery in earnings continues into 2024. <\/b>Consensus for 2024 calls for a 12.0% increase in earnings (versus previous estimate at 12.2%). Consensus for revenue growth calls for a 5.5% increase (versus a previous increase of 5.1%). <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

(Source: www.Investing.com<\/a> )<\/p>\n

Focus this week is on the August Non-Manufacturing ISM PSI report on Wednesday<\/b><\/p>\n

July Factory Orders<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to ease 0.1% versus a gain of 2.3% in June.<\/p>\n

July Canadian Trade Balance<\/b> is released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday<\/p>\n

July U.S. Trade Deficit<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase to $65.80 billion from $65.50 billion in June<\/p>\n

August Non-Manufacturing ISM PMI<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to slip to 52.6 from 52.7 in July.<\/p>\n

Bank of Canada interest rate decision <\/b>is released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday. Overnight lending rate to major banks is expected to remain unchanged at 5.0%.<\/p>\n

August Canadian Employment and Unemployment Rate<\/b> is released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday <\/b><\/p>\n

U.S. July Wholesale Inventories<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday are expected to slip 0.1% versus a decline of 0.5% in June. <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Selected Earnings News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.Investing.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Wednesday:<\/b> Couche Tard, Copart, American Eagle Outfitters<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Friday:<\/b> Kroger, DocuSign<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for September 1st<\/sup> 2023<\/p>\n

\"clip_image002[3]\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/em><\/p>\n

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: <\/em>www.EquityClock.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for September 1st<\/sup> 2023<\/p>\n

\"clip_image008\"<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/p>\n

Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for September 1st<\/sup> 2023 <\/p>\n

\"clip_image002[1]\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s<\/font><\/em> Money Talks for September 2nd<\/sup> <\/b><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s MoneyTalks \u2013 Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Euro Pacific\u2019s update and second half outlook for U.S. equity markets<\/b><\/p>\n

2Q23 Update & Outlook – Euro Pacific Asset Management<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Examining MAJOR Pullbacks within Secular "Go" Trends | GoNoGo Charts (08.31.23)<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Or3pCc_YItw<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Three Ways I Use RSI To Analyze Trends: David Keller<\/font><\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

Three Ways I Use RSI To Analyze Trends | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Plenty of Setups Emerge as Bulls Regain Control<\/b>: Mary Ellen McGonagle<\/em><\/font><\/b><\/p>\n

Plenty of Setups Emerge as Bulls Regain Control | The MEM Edge | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Yields, Oil, US Dollar Rise, Equities Tepid: Stock Market Starts the Month With Mixed Signals<\/b><\/p>\n

Yields, Oil, US Dollar Rise, Equities Tepid: Stock Market Starts the Month With Mixed Signals | ChartWatchers | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

You MUST Be Aware of This Seasonality Change Tom Bowley<\/em><\/font><\/b><\/p>\n

You MUST Be Aware of This Seasonality Change | Trading Places with Tom Bowley | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

HoweStreet Comments from Ross Clark, Mark Leibovit<\/font><\/em> and Martin Straith<\/em><\/font><\/b><\/p>\n

This Week in Money \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bob Hoye<\/font><\/em><\/b> Sep 1, 2023: China\u2019s Economic Problems Continue to Pile Up<\/p>\n

China\u2019s Economic Problems Continue to Pile Up \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Victor Adair<\/font><\/em>: Trading Desk Notes For September 2, 2023<\/b><\/p>\n

Trading Desk Notes For September 2, 2023 \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical Scores<\/em><\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

Calculated as follows:<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Higher highs and higher lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Not up or down)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Lower highs and lower lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2<\/em><\/p>\n

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score \u20132<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1<\/em><\/p>\n

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Below 20 day moving average: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1<\/em><\/p>\n

Mixed momentum indicators: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Down trending momentum indicators: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell\/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower. <\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Changes Last Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image012\"<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n


<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Technical Notes<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Energy equities and related ETFs were notably higher on Friday<\/b> extending intermediate uptrends: United States Crude Oil fund moved above $75.36. Oil and Gas Exploration SPDRs $XOP moved above $150.43. Energy SPDRs $XLE moved above $90.00. First Trust Natural Gas ETF $FCG moved above $26.84. Imperial Oil $IMO.TO moved above Cdn$77.72 to an all-time high. ARC Resources $ARX.TO moved above $21.00.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image013\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"clip_image014\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"clip_image015\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"clip_image016\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"clip_image017\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Visa $V a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $248.55 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. <\/p>\n

\"clip_image018\"<\/a><\/p>\n

IBM $IBM a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $147.62 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. <\/p>\n

\"clip_image019\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Utilities SPDRs XLU moved below intermediate support at $62.66 in response to higher long term interest rates.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image020\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Southern Companies $SO an S&P 100 stock and a major holding in XLU moved below $68.81 extending an intermediate downtrend.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image021\"<\/a><\/p>\n

TSX Information\/Technology iShares $XIT.TO moved above $47.76 extending an intermediate uptrend.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image022\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Constellation Software $CSU.TO a TSX 60 stock and a major holding in XIT.TO moved above $2,829.33 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image023\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image024\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer added 2.80 to 47.80 on Friday and added 13.40 last week to 47.60. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a recovery above 40.00.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image025\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer added 2.00 on Friday and added 7.00 last week to 59.00. It remains Neutral.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image026\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer added 6.61 on Friday and jumped 17.62 last week to 58.59. It remains Neutral.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image027\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer added 0.88 on Friday and 7.05 last week to 54.63. It remains Neutral.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b> Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at<\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com<\/em><\/a> are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday September 5th U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 11 points at 8:30 EDT. Oracle added $1.78 to $122.71 after Barclay\u2019s upgraded the stock to Outperform. American Express gained $0.68 to $160.30 after Royal Bank upgraded the stock to Outperform. Domino\u2019s Pizza advanced $4.86 to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-169326","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169326","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=169326"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169326\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=169326"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=169326"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=169326"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}