{"id":171476,"date":"2023-11-20T02:22:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-20T07:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=171476"},"modified":"2023-11-20T09:02:13","modified_gmt":"2023-11-20T14:02:13","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-november-20th-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2023\/11\/20\/tech-talk-for-monday-november-20th-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday November 20th 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday November 20th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were down 3 points at 8:30 AM EST.<\/em><\/p>\n

Microsoft <\/b>added $6.25 to $376.10 after hiring Sam Altman, former OpenAI chief executive officer. <\/em><\/p>\n

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Boeing<\/b> advanced $2.79 to $210.80 after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock from Hold to
Buy and raised its target price from $204 to $270.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Franco-Nevada<\/b> (FNV.TO Cdn$165.16) is expected to open lower after the company scaled back guidance. <\/em><\/p>\n

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Krispy Kreme<\/b> dropped $0.32 to $12.72 after JP Morgan downgraded the stock from Overweight to Neutral.<\/em><\/p>\n

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EquityClock\u2019s Daily Comment<\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Headline reads \u201cIt is no surprise that the rally in stocks has coincided with the largest expansion of net assets on the Fed\u2019s balance sheet since March<\/strong>\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n

https:\/\/equityclock.com\/2023\/11\/18\/stock-market-outlook-for-november-20-2023\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

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Technical Scoop<\/strong><\/font> <\/em><\/p>\n

from David Chapman and <\/em>www.EnrichedInvesting.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Denial-rally-golden-Fed-declining-energy-overbought-potential-Dollar-crack-bond-rally.pdf<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

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The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

The yearend rally from late October to the first week in January for North American equity indices continues<\/b>. Historically, as part of the yearend rally, North American equity markets have moved higher from just before U.S. Thanksgiving holiday (November 23rd<\/sup> this year) to the first trading day in December.<\/p>\n

The Thanksgiving rally is attributed to start of the Christmas gift buying season<\/b>. \u201cBlack Friday\u201d, the day after Thanksgiving, is notorious for its surge in retail sales. Not surprising, Retail SPDRs (Symbol: XRT) are following their historic pattern for this time of year by moving sharply higher just before \u201cBlack Friday\u201d. Encouraging comments on the season offered by Gap Inc on Friday set the tone.<\/p>\n

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Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.FactSet.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Consensus earnings estimates for the third quarter of 2023 increased again last week<\/b>. Ninety four percent of companies in the Index have reported to date. Consensus for the third quarter on a year-over-year basis is an earnings increase of 4.3% (versus an increase last week of 4.1%). Third quarter revenues are expected to increase 2.4% (versus an increase last week of 2.3%)<\/p>\n

Estimates for the fourth quarter were lowered again<\/b>. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 2.9% (versus previous increase of 3.2%). Fourth quarter revenues are expected to increase 3.2% (versus previous increase of 3.3%). For all of 2023, consensus calls for an earnings increase of 0.6%. Revenues are expected to increase 2.3%.<\/p>\n

The recovery continues into 2024, but at a declining rate from last week<\/b>. Consensus for the first quarter on a year-over-year basis calls for an earnings increase of 6.5 % (versus previous increase of 6.7%) and a revenue increase of 4.2% (versus previous increase of 4.3%). Consensus for the second quarter calls for a 10.4% earnings increase (versus previous increase of 10.5%) and a 5.0% increase in revenues. Consensus for all of 2024 is an increase in earnings of 11.6% and a 5.4% increase in revenues (versus previous increase of 5.5%.<\/p>\n

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Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.Investing.com<\/a><\/p>\n

October U.S. Leading Economic Indicators<\/b> released at 10:30 AM EST on Monday are expected to drop 0.7% versus a drop of 0.7% in September.<\/p>\n

Canadian October Consumer Price Index<\/b> is released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday<\/p>\n

October Existing Home Sales<\/b> released at10:00 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to slip to 3.93 million units from 3.96 million units in September<\/p>\n

FOMC Meeting Minutes<\/b> are released at 2:00 PM EST.<\/p>\n

October Durable Goods Orders<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to drop 3.0% versus a gain of 4.7% in September.<\/p>\n

November Michigan Consumer Sentiment<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to drop to 60.4 from 63.8 in October.<\/p>\n

Bank of Canada\u2019s Tiff Macklem<\/b> speaks at 11:45 AM ESTon Wednesday<\/p>\n

Canadian September Retail Sales<\/b> are released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday.<\/p>\n

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Selected Earnings News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.Investing.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Eleven S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results this week. Focuses are on NVidia on Tuesday and Deere on Wednesday. No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to release this week.<\/p>\n

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Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for Nov17th<\/sup> 2023<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: <\/em>www.EquityClock.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

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Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for Nov.17th<\/sup> 2023<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

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Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for November 17th<\/sup> 2023 <\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/em><\/p>\n

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Special Report<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Don Vialoux<\/em><\/font><\/strong> was a guest last Thursday on \u201cWolf on Bay Street<\/font><\/em><\/strong>\u201d, a weekly radio show hosted by Wolfgang Klein and Jack Hardill. The show on Corus 640 was released at 7:00 PM EST on Saturday. Following are notes created prior to the show.<\/p>\n

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The year-end rally for North American equity indices continued last week<\/b>. Historically, the best period to own U.S. and Canadian equities is from the last week in October to the first week in January.<\/p>\n

The year-end rally normally occurs in three waves as the Christmas season approaches<\/b>.<\/p>\n