{"id":172076,"date":"2023-12-11T02:22:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-11T07:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=172076"},"modified":"2023-12-11T08:42:41","modified_gmt":"2023-12-11T13:42:41","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-december-11th-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2023\/12\/11\/tech-talk-for-monday-december-11th-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday December 11th 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday December 11th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were down 3 points at 8:30 AM EST.<\/em><\/p>\n

Macy\u2019s<\/b> jumped $3.01 to $20.40 after Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management offered to acquire the company for $21 per share.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image001\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Cigna <\/b>advanced $34.75 to $293.55 after the company raised its stock buyback program by $10 billion.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image002[5]\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Palo Alto<\/b> added $0.82 to $299.24 after JP Morgan raised its target price from $272 to $326.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image003\"<\/a><\/p>\n

CrowdStrike<\/b> added $0.35 to $242.90 after JP Morgan raised its target price from $230 to $269.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image004[5]\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Focus this week is on U.S. economic news and its impact on interest rates:<\/b> November CPI on Tuesday, November PPI on Wednesday, FOMC\u2019s Fed Fund Rate on Wednesday and November Retail Sales on Thursday. If consensus holds, the stage is set for the proverbial Christmas Rally from December 15th<\/sup> to January 5th<\/sup><\/p>\n

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies<\/p>\n

Source: www.FactSet.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Analysts slightly lowered earnings estimates and slightly raised revenue estimates:<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Earnings estimates for the fourth quarter of 2023 were reduced slightly<\/b>. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 2.7% (versus previous increase of 3.0%). Fourth quarter revenues are expected to increase 3.2% (versus previous increase of 3.1%). For all of 2023, consensus calls for an earnings increase of 0.7% (versus previous increase of 0.8%). Revenues are expected to increase 2.3%.<\/p>\n

The recovery becomes more apparent in the first quarter of 2024 and accelerates as the year progress.<\/b> Consensus for the first quarter on a year-over-year basis calls for an earnings increase of 6.8 % and a revenue increase of 4.4% (versus previous increase of 4.2%). Consensus for the second quarter calls for a 10.8% earnings increase (versus previous increase at 10.9%) and a 5.0% increase in revenues (versus a previous increase of 5.1%). Consensus for the third quarter calls for a 9.0% increase in earnings and a 5.2% increase in revenues. Consensus for the fourth quarter calls for an 18.2% increase in earnings and a 5.7% increase in revenues. For 2024, consensus calls for an 11.8% increase in earnings (versus a previous increase of 11.7%) and a 5.5% increase in revenues (versus a previous increase of 5.5%)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

U.S. November Consumer Price Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to remain unchanged versus unchanged in October. On a year-over-year basis, November CPI is expected to increase 3.1% versus a gain of 3.2% in October. Excluding food and energy, November CPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in October. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI is expected to increase 4.0% versus a gain of 4.0% in October.<\/p>\n

U.S. November Producer Price Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a decline of 0.5% in October. Excluding food and energy, November PPI is expected to increase 0.2% versus no change in October. <\/p>\n

FOMC announces its Fed Fund rate<\/b> at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday. Consensus calls for no change at 5.50%.<\/p>\n

November Retail Sales<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected to slip 0.1% versus a decline of 0.1% in October. Excluding auto sales, November Retail Sales are expected to slip 0.1% versus a gain of 0.1% in October. <\/p>\n

October Business Inventories<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.4% in September.<\/p>\n

December Empire State Manufacturing Survey<\/b> is released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday<\/p>\n

November Capacity Utilization<\/b> released at 9:15 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase to 79.1% from 78.9% in October. November Industrial Production <\/b>is expected to increase 0.2% versus a drop of 0.6% in October.<\/p>\n

Bank of Canada Governor Maclem<\/b> is scheduled to speak at 12:25 PM EST on Friday.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Selected Earnings News This Week <\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for Dec.8th<\/sup> 2023<\/p>\n

\"clip_image004\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/p>\n

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for Dec.8th<\/sup> 2023<\/p>\n

\"clip_image006\"<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for Dec.8th<\/sup> 2023 <\/p>\n

\"clip_image008\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical Scores<\/em><\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

Calculated as follows:<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Higher highs and higher lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Not up or down)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Lower highs and lower lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2<\/em><\/p>\n

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score \u20132<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1<\/p>\n

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Below 20 day moving average: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1<\/em><\/p>\n

Mixed momentum indicators: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Down trending momentum indicators: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell\/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower. <\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Changes Last Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image010\"<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n


<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Technical Notes for Friday<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

S&P 500 Index<\/b> $SPX moved above 4,607.07 on Friday to a 21 month high extending an intermediate uptrend.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image011\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Regional Bank<\/b> SPDRs $KRE moved above $49.14 extending an intermediate uptrend. <\/p>\n

\"clip_image012\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Boeing <\/b>$BA a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $243.10 to a 32 month high extending an intermediate uptrend.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image013\"<\/a><\/p>\n

FedEx <\/b>$FDX an S&P 100 stock moved above $269.19 to a 30 month high extending an intermediate uptrend. <\/p>\n

\"clip_image014\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Booking<\/b> $BKNG a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $3,251.71 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. <\/p>\n

\"clip_image015\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Walmart<\/b> $WMT a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below intermediate support at $151.09<\/p>\n

\"clip_image016\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Links offered by valued providers <\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

What Lies Ahead For End of the Year Equities? | GoNoGo Charts (12.08.23) <\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=O3lOPJ24qoQ<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Top 10 Charts to Watch December 2023 | The Final Bar (12.08.23) <\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=s71L5aw3klA<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

One Of Wall Street’s Top Bulls Says S&P Could Hit 5000 by RBC\u2019s Lori Calvasina <\/b><\/p>\n

Note comments on Seasonality <\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ACKBPQ4aDUM<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s Money Talks for December 9th<\/sup> 2023<\/b><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s MoneyTalks \u2013 Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Will the S&P 500 Push Above 4600 Before Year-End? David Keller<\/b><\/p>\n

Will the S&P 500 Push Above 4600 Before Year-End? | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

This Combination Makes Trading Next Week VERY Dicey: Tom Bowley<\/b><\/p>\n

Note comments on a yearend rally.<\/b><\/p>\n

This Combination Makes Trading Next Week VERY Dicey | Trading Places with Tom Bowley | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Most Successful Base Pattern is Seeing a Pickup in Breakouts; Here Are Two Examples: Mary Ellen McGonagle<\/b><\/p>\n

The Most Successful Base Pattern is Seeing a Pickup in Breakouts; Here Are Two Examples | The MEM Edge | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Santa Claus Rally Alert: Predicting a 70% Chance of Surge in the Dow Jones This December! Karl Montevirgen <\/b>DECEMBER 07, 2023<\/b><\/p>\n

Santa Claus Rally Alert: Predicting a 70% Chance of Surge in the Dow Jones This December! | Don’t Ignore This Chart! | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

December 8, 2023 | US & Canadian Emission Standards Economy Killers: Bob Hoye<\/b><\/p>\n

US & Canadian Emission Standards Economy Killers \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Mark Leibovit<\/b> Dec 7, 2023: The Fed Isn\u2019t as Powerful as Many Think It Is<\/b><\/p>\n

The Fed Isn\u2019t as Powerful as Many Think It Is \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tim Wood<\/b> Dec 7, 2023: Stock Markets in 2024<\/b><\/p>\n

Stock Markets in 2024 \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical Scoop from David Chapman and <\/b>www.EnrichedInvesting.com<\/b><\/a> <\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/High-jobs-golden-reversal-market-divergences-fallen-energy-some-highs-yield-expectations-Santa-rally.pdf<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image017\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer added 1.20 on Friday but dropped 3.00 last week to 83.00. It remains Overbought.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image018\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer gained 2.40 on Friday, but slipped 0.20 last week to 66.40. It remains Overbought.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image019\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer added 1.76 on Friday, but slipped 1.76 last week to 71.81. It remains Overbought.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image020\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer added 1.76 on Friday, but dropped 5.73 last week to 50.22.It remains Neural.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b> Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at<\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com<\/em><\/a> are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday December 11th U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 3 points at 8:30 AM EST. Macy\u2019s jumped $3.01 to $20.40 after Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management offered to acquire the company for $21 per share. Cigna advanced $34.75 to $293.55 after the company raised […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-172076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172076","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=172076"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172076\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":172087,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172076\/revisions\/172087"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=172076"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=172076"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=172076"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}