{"id":173728,"date":"2024-02-12T02:22:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-12T07:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=173728"},"modified":"2024-02-12T08:43:23","modified_gmt":"2024-02-12T13:43:23","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-february-12th-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2024\/02\/12\/tech-talk-for-monday-february-12th-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday February 12th 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday February 12th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were down 1 point at 8:30 AM EST.<\/em><\/p>\n

Diamondback<\/b> Energy<\/b> gained $1.24 to $152.98 after announcing a merger with Endeavor Energy Resources in a deal valued at $26 billion. Endeavour shareholder will receive $8 billion cash and 117.3 million shares of Diamondback. Diamondback also increased its dividend by 7%.<\/em><\/p>\n

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XPO Logistics<\/b> dropped $2.18 to $118.66 after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from Equal Weight to Underweight.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image002[1]\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Monday.com<\/b> dropped $20.96 to $214.96 after the company offered 2024 guidance below consensus.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Big Lots dropped $0.63 to $4.73<\/b> on a report that the company is seeking additional financing.<\/em><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Headline reads \u201cS&P 500 Index closes at an all-time high\u201d<\/b>. The \u201cMagnificent Four\u201d (Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Nvidia), recently narrowed down from the \u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d, continued to move higher. Their extraordinary overweight in the S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ 100 Index was the main reason why all-time highs were reached on Friday. Other broadly based U.S. equity indices (e.g. Russell 2000 Index, S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, Dow Jones Transportation Average) remain significantly below their all-time highs set in December 2021. <\/p>\n

Ditto for the TSX Composite Index and its related TSX 60 Index<\/b>! Both reached their all-time highs in the first quarter of 2022.<\/p>\n

Note intermediate and long term momentum scores for the S&P 500 stocks and TSX Composite stocks at the end of this report.<\/b> Their scores continue to roll over from Overbought levels. That does not mean that S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index will move lower. It does mean that intermediate upside potential for North American equities is limited. Short term performance will continue to depend on a small number of big cap U.S. equity securities.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies<\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.FactSet.com<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Earnings estimates for the fourth quarter of 2023 were raised again thanks to increased estimates by analysts for the \u201cMagnificent Four\u201d companies following release of their better-than expected fourth quarter results. <\/b>Sixty seven percent of S&P 500 companies have reported to date. Fourth quarter earnings now are expected to increase 2.9% on a year-over-year basis (versus an increase last week of 1.6%). Estimate for fourth quarter revenues was increased to a gain of 3.9% from a gain of 3.5% last week.<\/p>\n

A significant earnings recovery by S&P 500 companies first surfaces in the first quarter of 2024, but at a slightly lower than a previous rate. <\/b>Consensus for the first quarter on a year-over-year basis calls for an earnings increase of 4.0% (versus increase last week of 4.5%) and a revenue increase of 3.6% (unchanged)<\/p>\n

Earnings gains accelerate thereafter to the end of 2024, all-be-it at a slower pace.<\/b> Consensus for the second quarter calls for a 9.1% earnings increase (versus a 9.4% increase last week) and a 4.8% increase in revenues (versus a 4.7% last week). Consensus for the third quarter calls for an 8.1% increase in earnings (versus previous 8.0% increase) and a 5.0% increase in revenues (versus a 4.7% increase last week). Consensus for the fourth quarter calls for a 17.7% increase in earnings (versus previous 19.0% increase) and a 5.6% increase in revenues. For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 10.9% increase in earnings (versus previous 11.2% increase) and a 5.4% increase in revenues.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.Investing.com<\/a><\/p>\n

January U.S. Consumer Price Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in December. On a year-over-year basis January CPI is expected to increase 3.0% versus a gain of 3.3% in December. January Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.3% in December. On a year-over-year basis January core CPI is expected to increase 3.8% versus a gain of 3.9% in December.<\/p>\n

January U.S. Retail Sales<\/b> ex auto sales<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.4% in December.<\/p>\n

February Philly Fed Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to improve to -8.0 from -10.6 in January.<\/p>\n

February Empire State Manufacturing Survey<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to improve to -12.50 from -43.70 in January. <\/p>\n

January U.S. Capacity Utilization<\/b> released at 9:15 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase to 78.8 from 78.6 in December. January Industrial Production <\/b>is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.1% in December. <\/p>\n

December U.S. Business Inventories<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a decline of 0.1% in November.<\/p>\n

January U.S. Producer Price Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to increase 0.1% versus a decline of 0.1% in December. Excluding food and energy, January PPI is expected to increase 0.1% versus unchanged in December On a year-over-year basis core PPI is expected to increase 1.7% versus a gain of 1.8% in December.<\/p>\n

February Michigan Consumer Sentiment<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase to 80.0 from 79.0 in January.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Selected Earnings News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.Investing..com<\/a><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for Feb.9th<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: <\/em>www.EquityClock.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for Feb.9th<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

\"clip_image006\"<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/b><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for Feb.9th<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

\"clip_image008\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Green:<\/em> Increase from previous day<\/em><\/font><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical Notes for Friday<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Chevron<\/b> $CVX an S&P 100 stock moved above $154.35 resuming an intermediate uptrend. <\/p>\n

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Synopsys<\/b> $SNPS a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $573.77 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. <\/p>\n

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Kinross Gold<\/b> a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$5.30 and US$7.14 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.<\/p>\n

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Simon Property<\/b> $SPG an S&P 100 stock moved above $146.91 extending an intermediate uptrend. <\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

Technical Scores<\/em><\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

Calculated as follows:<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Higher highs and higher lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Not up or down)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Lower highs and lower lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2<\/em><\/p>\n

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score \u20132<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1<\/em><\/p>\n

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Below 20 day moving average: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1<\/em><\/p>\n

Mixed momentum indicators: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Down trending momentum indicators: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell\/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower. <\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Changes Last Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Your Questions, Answered! Price Gaps, Bull Flags, Inverse Patterns and MORE: David Keller<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=0roUFdkeHgI<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Bull Case For Stocks as S&P Hits 5,000 with <\/b>@LukeGromenFFTTLLC<\/b><\/a>: Guy Adami<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=s485QZIPyEY<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Mike\u2019s Money Talks for February 10th<\/sup> <\/b><\/p>\n

February 10th Episode (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Best Way To Participate in Stronger Areas of The Market: Mary Ellen McGonagle<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=-YVJgNev8_4<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Master Momentum Using Price Swings and Fibonacci: Joe Rabil<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=RUMev2kyeYI<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Beware the Hindenburg Omen! David Keller<\/b><\/p>\n

Beware the Hindenburg Omen! | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Generals March On, but Fewer Troops are Following – Get the Essential Breadth Indicator ChartList<\/b><\/p>\n

Generals March On, but Fewer Troops are Following – Get the Essential Breadth Indicator ChartList | Art’s Charts | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sentiment Lopsided – Is It a Problem? Erin Swenlin<\/b><\/p>\n

Sentiment Lopsided – Is It a Problem? | DecisionPoint | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Lower Interest Rates Do Not Equal Good Times: Bob Hoye<\/b><\/p>\n

Lower Interest Rates Do Not Equal Good Times \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Is the Stock Market Too Hot? Mark Leibovit<\/b><\/p>\n

Is the Stock Market Too Hot? \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Trading Desk Notes for February 10th<\/sup>: Victor Adair<\/b><\/p>\n

Trading Desk Notes For February 10, 2024 \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Danielle Park presents at VRIC 2024: Capital Prospects in 2024<\/b><\/p>\n

Danielle presents at VRIC 2024: Capital Prospects in 2024 \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical Scoop from David Chapman and <\/b>www.EnrichedInvesting.com<\/b><\/a> <\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Ostensible-rosiness-market-highs-continued-magnificence-miserable-metals-geopolitical-drivers2.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image015\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer slipped 1.80 on Friday and dropped 3.40 last week to 63.00. It remains Overbought. Daily trend remains down.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image016\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and dropped 1.80 last week to 70.80. It remains Overbought. Daily trend remains down.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image017\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer added 2.67 on Friday, but dropped 9.34 last week to 53.33. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Daily trend remains down. <\/p>\n

\"clip_image018\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer slipped 1.33 on Friday and dropped 6.22 last week to 56.89. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00, Daily trend remains down. <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b> Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at<\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com<\/em><\/a> are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday February 12th U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 1 point at 8:30 AM EST. Diamondback Energy gained $1.24 to $152.98 after announcing a merger with Endeavor Energy Resources in a deal valued at $26 billion. Endeavour shareholder will receive $8 billion cash and 117.3 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-173728","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/173728","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=173728"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/173728\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":173739,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/173728\/revisions\/173739"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=173728"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=173728"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=173728"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}