{"id":174777,"date":"2024-03-18T02:22:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-18T06:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=174777"},"modified":"2024-03-18T08:48:36","modified_gmt":"2024-03-18T12:48:36","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-march-18th-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2024\/03\/18\/tech-talk-for-monday-march-18th-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday March 18th 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday March 18th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures moved higher this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were up 41 points at 8:30 AM EDT.<\/em><\/p>\n

Apple<\/b> gained $0.86 to $173.48 and Alphabet <\/b>advanced $7.76 to $149.93 after announcing a possible joint venture with Alphabet to include Artificial Intelligence in its next iPhone.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Tesla <\/b>added $5.27 to $108.84 after announcing a price increase in the United States for its Model Y vehicle.<\/em><\/p>\n

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The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Focus this week is on the Fed Fund Rate update <\/b>released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday. U.S. equity markets traded in a narrow range last week prior to the news. Consensus is that the FOMC will maintain the rate at 5.25%-5.50%. Comments following the 2:00 PM statement will be examined carefully to assess when the Rate will move lower. The \u201chotter than expected\u201d February Consumer Price Index and the February Producer Price Index released last week hinted that a reduction in the Rate will not happen anytime soon. Indeed, both indices appeared to have passed an intermediate low point on the charts and are vulnerable to resuming an intermediate uptrend. Note that recent increases in commodity prices last week will begin to register in March CPI and PPI when next announced in mid-April. <\/p>\n

Industrial commodities and related ETFs\/shares significantly outperformed North American equity markets last week<\/b>. Industrial commodity ETN (Symbol: GSG) advanced 3% led by strength in base metal and crude oil prices. \u2018Tis the season for GSG to move higher between mid-March and early June!<\/p>\n

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Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.FactSet.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Analysts slightly reduced estimates for the first quarter of 2024. <\/b>Consensus on a year-over-year basis calls for an earnings increase of 3.3% (versus a 3.4% increase last week). Revenues are expected to increase 3.5%.<\/b><\/p>\n

Earnings gains accelerate thereafter to the end of 2024. <\/b>Consensus for the second quarter calls for a 9.1% earnings increase (versus a 9.0% increase last week) and a 4.6% increase in revenues. Consensus for the third quarter calls for an 8.3% increase in earnings (versus a previous 8.2% increase) and a 5.1% increase in revenues. Consensus for the fourth quarter calls for a 17.3% increase in earnings (versus a previous 17.2% increase) and a 5.8% increase in revenues (versus previous 5.7% increase). For all of 2024, consensus calls for an 11.0% increase in earnings and a 5.0% increase in revenues.<\/p>\n

Preliminary estimates were offered for fiscal 2025. <\/b>Consensus calls for a 13.2% earnings increase and a 5.9% revenue increase (versus previous 5.8% increase).<\/p>\n

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Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.Investing.com<\/a><\/p>\n

February U.S. Housing Starts<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase to 1.420 million units from 1.331 million units in January.<\/p>\n

Canadian February Consumer Price Index<\/b> is released at 8:30 AM EDT<\/p>\n

FOMC Decision<\/b> on the Fed Fund Rate is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday. Consensus calls for no change from the current 5.25%-5.50% rate. Press conference is offered at 2:30 PM EDT<\/p>\n

Bank of England\u2019s Bank Rate decision<\/b> released at 8:00 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to remain unchanged at 5.25%.<\/p>\n

March Philly Fed<\/b> is released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday<\/p>\n

February Exiting Home Sales<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to slip to 3.94 million units from 4.00 million units in January<\/p>\n

February Leading Economic Indicators<\/b> are released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday<\/p>\n

January Canadian Retail Sales<\/b> are released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday.<\/p>\n

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Selected Earnings News This Week<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

Source: www.Investing.com<\/a><\/p>\n

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Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for March 15th<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: <\/em>www.EquityClock.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

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Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for March 15th<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/em><\/p>\n

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Sectors Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for March 15th<\/sup> 2024<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

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Technical Scores<\/strong><\/em><\/font><\/p>\n

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Calculated as follows:<\/em><\/p>\n

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Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Higher highs and higher lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Not up or down)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Lower highs and lower lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

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Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2<\/em><\/p>\n

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score \u20132<\/em><\/p>\n

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Above 20 day moving average: Score 1<\/em><\/p>\n

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Below 20 day moving average: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

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Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1<\/em><\/p>\n

Mixed momentum indicators: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Down trending momentum indicators: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

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Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell\/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower. <\/em><\/p>\n

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Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower<\/em><\/p>\n


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Changes Last Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Tech Talk\u2019s intermediate outlook for equity markets<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Don Vialoux<\/strong><\/em><\/font> was a guest on \u201cWolf on Bay Street<\/em><\/strong><\/font>\u201d released at 7:00 PM EDT on Corus Radio 640 on Saturday. The interview was completed on Thursday. Following are notes developed for the interview:<\/p>\n

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A word of caution on North American equity markets: <\/b>They are overbought based on a wide variety of technical and economic indicators:<\/p>\n