{"id":175573,"date":"2024-04-15T02:22:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-15T06:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=175573"},"modified":"2024-04-15T08:52:50","modified_gmt":"2024-04-15T12:52:50","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-april-15th-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2024\/04\/15\/tech-talk-for-monday-april-15th-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday April 15th 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday April 5th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were up 40 points at 8:35 AM EDT despite Iran\u2019s missile attack on Israel over the weekend. <\/em><\/p>\n

Index futures gained 9 points following release of March U.S. Retail Sales at 8:30 AM EDT.<\/b> Consensus was an increase of 0.3% versus a revised gain of 0.9% in February. Actual was an increase of 0.7%. Excluding auto sales, consensus for March U.S. Retail Sales was an increase of 0.4% versus a revised gain of 0.6% in February. Actual was a gain of 0.6%.<\/em><\/p>\n

Lockheed Martin<\/b> gained $7.27 to $458.22 after JP Morgan upgraded the stock from Neutral to Overweight. <\/em><\/p>\n

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Goldman Sachs<\/b> added $9.51 to $399.00 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly results. <\/em><\/p>\n

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Cisco<\/b> added $1.11 to $49.60 after Bank of America upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy. <\/em><\/p>\n

Target price was raised to $60.00.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Tesla <\/b>dropped $1.95 to $169.10 on reports that the company expects to reduce its employee count by 10%.<\/em><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

The attack by Iran on Israel on Saturday is a \u201cBlack Swan event\u201d that is expected to have a significant negative impact on world equity markets when they open on Monday. <\/b><\/p>\n

U.S. equity markets were \u201coff to a rough start\u201d last week following initial releases of first quarter results by major companies:<\/b> Notably weaker following release of quarterly results included Blackrock, Fastenal, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Weakness was recorded despite reports that revenue and earnings gains exceeded consensus.<\/p>\n

Trigger for weakness was the March Consumer Price report released last Wednesday<\/b>. CPI was \u201chotter\u201d than expected, implying an extension of tight monetary policy by the Federal Reserve beyond the next FOMC meeting on June 12th<\/sup><\/p>\n

Commodity prices and their related stocks continued to move strongly higher.<\/b> Strength was notable last week in agricultural (DBA), Base metal (DBB) and precious metals (GLD) ETNs<\/p>\n

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Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.FactSet.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Analysts significantly reduced earnings estimates for the first quarter of 2024. <\/b>Consensus on a year-over-year basis calls for an earnings increase of 0.9% (versus a 3.2% increase last week). Revenues are expected to increase 3.4% (versus a 3.5% increase last week).<\/b><\/p>\n

Earnings gains accelerate in the second and third quarters. <\/b>Consensus for the second quarter calls for a 9.4% earnings increase and a 4.6% increase in revenues (versus a 4.7% increase last week). Consensus for the third quarter calls for an 8.6% increase in earnings (versus previous 8.5% increase) and a 5.1% increase in revenues (versus a previous 5.2% increase). <\/p>\n

Earnings gains accelerate in the fourth quarter<\/b>. Consensus for the fourth quarter calls for a 17.7% increase in earnings (versus previous 17.5% increase) and a 5.8% increase in revenues. <\/p>\n

For all of 2024<\/b>, consensus calls for a 10.3% earnings increase (versus previous 10.9% increase) and a 4.8% increase in revenues (versus previous 5.1% increase)<\/p>\n

Estimates for fiscal 2025 were raised slightly. <\/b>Consensus calls for a 14.0% earnings increase (versus previous 13.4% increase) and a 5.9% revenue increase.<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.Investing.com<\/a><\/p>\n

March U.S. Retail Sales<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.6% in February. Excluding auto sales<\/b>, March Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.3% in February.<\/p>\n

April Empire State Manufacturing Survey<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday is expected to recover to -9.00 from -20.90 in March.<\/p>\n

February Business Inventories<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday are expected to increase 0.3% versus unchanged in January.<\/p>\n

March U.S. Housing Starts<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to drop to 1.480 million units from 1.521 million units in February.<\/p>\n

March Canadian Consumer Price Index<\/b> is released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday. <\/p>\n

March U.S. Capacity Utilization<\/b> released at 9:15 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase to 78.5% from 78.3% in February.<\/b><\/p>\n

Beige Book<\/b> is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday.<\/p>\n

April Philly Fed<\/b> is released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday<\/p>\n

March U.S. Existing Home Sales<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to slip to 4.20 million units from 4.38 million units in February.<\/p>\n

March U.S. Leading Economic Indicators <\/b>are released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Selected Earnings News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.Investing.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Six percent of S&P 500 companies have reported first quarter results to date. Another 44 companies are scheduled to release results this week. Focus is on reports by major banks:<\/p>\n

No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report.<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for April 12th<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: <\/em>www.EquityClock.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for April 12th<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/b><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/p>\n

Sectors <\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for April 12th<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Technical Scores<\/em><\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

Calculated as follows:<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Higher highs and higher lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Not up or down)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Lower highs and lower lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2<\/em><\/p>\n

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score \u20132<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1<\/em><\/p>\n

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Below 20 day moving average: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1<\/em><\/p>\n

Mixed momentum indicators: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Down trending momentum indicators: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell\/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower. <\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Changes Last Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Technical Notes for Friday<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Silver Miners<\/b> ETF $SIL moved above $33.04 to a two year high extending an intermediate uptrend<\/p>\n

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Junior Gold Miners ETF<\/b> $GDXJ moved above $43.57 extending an intermediate uptrend.<\/p>\n

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Agnico-Eagle<\/b> $AEM a TSX 60 stock moved above US$62.87 extending an intermediate uptrend. <\/p>\n

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Wheaton Precious Metals<\/b> $WPM.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$73.24 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. <\/p>\n

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Oil and Gas Exploration SPDRs<\/b> $XOP moved above $161.65 to a nine year high extending an intermediate uptrend.<\/p>\n

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Consumer Discretionary SPDRs<\/b> moved below $177.18 completing a double top pattern.<\/p>\n

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Biotech ETF<\/b> $BBH moved below $158.16 setting an intermediate downtrend.<\/p>\n

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Hong Kong iShares<\/b> $EWH moved below $15.19 to an 8 year low extending an intermediate downtrend. <\/p>\n

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S&P 100 stocks moving below intermediate support <\/b>included Medtronic<\/b> on a moved below $81.23, <\/p>\n

Intuit <\/b>on a move below $620.17, UnitedHealth Group<\/b> on a move below $438.90 and $438.56 and Abbott Laboratories<\/b> on a move below $108.57, Coca Cola<\/b> on a move below $58.50 and $58.19, Union Pacific<\/b> on a move below $233.27, Microchip Technology<\/b> on a moved below $85.80 and Texas Instruments<\/b> on a move below $165.98.<\/p>\n

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Cameco<\/b> $CCJ a TSX 60 stock moved above US$51.33 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. <\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s Money Talk for April 13th<\/b><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s MoneyTalks \u2013 Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The stock market now is in correction mode: Mark Leibovit<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.howestreet.com\/2024\/04\/is-the-stock-market-now-in-correction-mode-mark-leibovit\/<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

S&P 500 Flashes Major Topping Signals: David Keller<\/b><\/p>\n

S&P 500 Flashes Major Topping Signals | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

From Relic To Reckoning: Can Gold Surge To $3,000?<\/b> <\/i>Karl Montevirgen<\/b><\/p>\n

From Relic To Reckoning: Can Gold Surge To $3,000? | ChartWatchers | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

2023 Q4 Earnings Analysis and Projections through 2024 Q4: Carl Swenlin<\/b><\/p>\n

2023 Q4 Earnings Analysis and Projections Through 2024 Q4 | DecisionPoint | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Time to sell everything?: Mary Ellen McGonagle<\/b><\/p>\n

Time To SELL EVERYTHING?! \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

What is the Best Way to Measure \u201cValue\u201d of Gold? Bob Hoye<\/b><\/p>\n

What is the Best Way to Measure \u201cValue\u201d of Gold? \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Trading Desk Notes For April 13, 2024: Victor Adair<\/b><\/p>\n

Trading Desk Notes For April 13, 2024 \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical Scoop from David Chapman and <\/b>www.EnrichedInvesting.com<\/b><\/a> <\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Precious-record-shaky-stocks-war- notch-cut-question-booming-commodities-energetic-domination.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image027\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 13.80 on Friday and plunged 28.40 last week to 44.40.<\/p>\n

It changed from Overbought (i.e. above 60.00) to Neutral on a move below 60.00. Daily trend is down.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image028\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer dropped 4.00 on Friday and 6.80 last week to 71.80. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image029\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometers dropped 6.70 on Friday and plunged 12.95 last week to 53.57. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Daily trend is down.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image030\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer dropped 3.57 on Friday and 3.57 last week to 67.86. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down. <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b> Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at<\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com<\/em><\/a> are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday April 5th U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 40 points at 8:35 AM EDT despite Iran\u2019s missile attack on Israel over the weekend. Index futures gained 9 points following release of March U.S. Retail Sales at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-175573","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/175573","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=175573"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/175573\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":175584,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/175573\/revisions\/175584"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=175573"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=175573"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=175573"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}