{"id":177353,"date":"2024-06-17T02:22:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-17T06:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=177353"},"modified":"2024-06-17T09:02:50","modified_gmt":"2024-06-17T13:02:50","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-june-17th-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2024\/06\/17\/tech-talk-for-monday-june-17th-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday June 17th 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday June 17th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were down 7 points at 8:35 AM EDT.<\/em><\/p>\n

S&P 500 Index futures dropped 4 points following release of the June Empire State Manufacturing Survey<\/b> at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus called for an improvement to -12.50 from -15.60 in May. Actual was an improvement to -6.00.<\/em><\/p>\n

Autodesk<\/b> added $9.73 to $235.60 after Starboard Value took a $500 million stake in the strock.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image001\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Best Buy added $2.13<\/b> to $100.33 after UBS upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy. <\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image002[5]\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Walt Disney<\/b> advanced $0.36 to $100.33 after its film \u201cInside Out 2\u201d opened with $155 million in sales this weekend.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image003\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical Scoop<\/strong><\/font> from David Chapman and <\/em>www.EnrichedInvesting.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Fed-unchanged-downside-surprise-bubbly-FAANGs-mania-grip-divergent-markets-precious-lid-oily-bounce.pdf<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

EquityClock\u2019s Stock Market Outlook for June 17th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Visa continues to indicate that discretionary spending momentum remains very depressed for this time of year.<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

See: <\/em><\/b>https:\/\/equityclock.com\/2024\/06\/15\/stock-market-outlook-for-june-17-2024\/<\/em><\/a> <\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Editor\u2019s Note:<\/em> Thanks to Wolfgang Klein and Jack Hardill<\/b>, Don Vialoux appeared on \u201cWolf on Bay Street\u201d taped for Corus Radio last Thursday and released on Saturday evening. Following are comments developed prior to the interview. Comments have been updated to include price levels set at market close on Friday.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Investors responded to encouraging U.S. economic news last Wednesday<\/b>. Core May Consumer Price Index on a year-over-year basis dropped to 3.4%, extending an intermediate downtrend. U.S. equity indices moved higher on the news: the S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ Composite Index jumped to all-time highs in anticipation of a lower Fed Fund Rate currently at 5.25%-5.50%. Enthusiasm was dampened slightly after when Federal Reserve Chairman suggested that a reduction in the Fed Fund Rate will not happen \u201cany time soon\u201d.<\/p>\n

A word of caution on measuring performance of U.S. equity markets since January 1st<\/sup> 2024! <\/b>Investors have been impressed by a 13.89% gain by the S&P 500 Index and a 17.84% gain by the NASDAQ Composite Index. A closer examination of their content reveals that most of the gains came from their concentration in a small number of securities. A recent study of the S&P 500 found that its top 10 holdings by weight represented 35% of the value of the Index. Their outstanding performance has been driving the exceptional gain by the Index. Other U.S. equity indices have recorded positive but less impressive returns to date: Equally weighted S&P 500 Index is up only 3.53%, Dow Jones Industrial Average is up only 2.39% and the Russell 2000 Index is down<\/b> 0.43%. The Dow Jones Transportation Average is down <\/b>6.87%. Also, the TSX Composite Index is up only 3.25%<\/p>\n

The key to performance in the first half of this year by far in U.S. equity markets has been gains by the technology sector.<\/b><\/p>\n

Historically, the technology sector also has performed above average into the second half of the year.<\/b> This year the sector is benefitting from a growing enthusiasm for \u201cAI\u201d stocks. Other sectors, that have a history of outperformance in the second half of the year both in Canada and the U.S., include Consumer Discretionary, Industrial, Biotech, Base metals and Gold.<\/p>\n

U.S. equity markets have a history of moving higher from the last week in June to the end of July, the so called \u201cSummer Rally\u201d<\/b> (particularly during U.S. Presidential Election years). Average gain per period for the S&P 500 Index during the past 20 periods is 3.0%. This year, the Index is expected to benefit from accelerating earning gains: Consensus for second quarter 2024 earnings by S&P 500 companies calls for a year-over-year increase of 9.0%, up from a 5.9% increase announced in the first quarter. Anticipation of greater economic activity prior to start of the Olympics also is positive. Not surprising, Booking Holdings (Symbol: BKNG ) touched an all-time high last Wednesday.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.FactSet.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Earnings gains in 2024 on a year-over-year basis accelerate in the second and third quarters from the first quarter when earnings increased only 5.9%. <\/b>Consensus for the second quarter calls for a 9.0% earnings increase (versus previous 9.2% increase) and a 4.6% increase in revenues (versus previous 4.7% increase). Consensus for the third quarter calls for an 8.2% increase in earnings (versus previous 8.3% increase) and a 4.9% increase in revenues. <\/p>\n

Earnings gains accelerate further in the fourth quarter.<\/b> Consensus calls for a 17.6% increase in earnings (versus previous 17.5% increase) and a 5.6% increase in revenues (versus previous 5.5% increase). <\/p>\n

For all of 2024<\/b>, consensus calls for an 11.3% earnings increase and a 5.0% revenue increase.<\/p>\n

Earnings gains accelerate further in 2025<\/b>. First quarter earnings are expected to increase 15.3% year-over-year and revenues are expected to increase 5.8%. Second quarter earnings are expected to increase 15.2% and revenues are expected to increase 5.9%. For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 14.3% (versus previous 14.2% increase) and revenues are expected to increase 6.0% (versus previous 5.9% gain).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.Investing.com<\/a><\/p>\n

June Empire State Manufacturing Survey<\/b> is released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday.<\/p>\n

May U.S. Retail Sales<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.3% versus no change in April.<\/p>\n

May Capacity Utilization<\/b> released at 9:15 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase to 78.6 from 78.4 in April. May Industrial Production<\/b> also is released at 9:15 AM EDT<\/p>\n

April U.S. Business Inventories<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.1% decline in March <\/p>\n

U.S. Holiday<\/b> is on Wednesday. U.S equity markets are closed. <\/p>\n

May U.S. Housing Starts<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase to 1.380 million units from 1.360 million units in April.<\/p>\n

June Philly Fed Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to be unchanged from May at 4.5.<\/p>\n

May Canadian Retail Sales<\/b> are released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday<\/p>\n

May U.S. Existing Home Sales<\/b> release at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday are expected to slip to 4.10 million units from 4.14 million units in April<\/p>\n

May U.S. Leading Economic Indicators<\/b> released at 10:00 on Friday are expected to be -0.3 versus -0.6 in April.<\/p>\n

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Report<\/b> is released at 11:00 AM EDT on Friday.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Selected Earnings Reports This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.Investing.com<\/a><\/p>\n

\"clip_image002\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for June 14th<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

\"clip_image004\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: <\/em>www.EquityClock.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for June 14th<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

\"clip_image006\"<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/b><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sectors <\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for June 14th<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

\"clip_image008\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical Scores<\/em><\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

Calculated as follows:<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Higher highs and higher lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Not up or down)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Lower highs and lower lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2<\/em><\/p>\n

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score \u20132<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1<\/em><\/p>\n

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Below 20 day moving average: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1<\/em><\/p>\n

Mixed momentum indicators: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Down trending momentum indicators: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell\/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower. <\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Changes Last Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

\"clip_image010\"<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n


<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Technical Notes for Friday<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

TSX Composite Index<\/b> moved below intermediate support at 21,536.09<\/p>\n

\"clip_image011\"<\/a><\/p>\n

France iShares<\/b> $EWQ moved below intermediate support at $38.37. A national election has been called.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image012\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Agribusiness ETF <\/b>$MOO moved below $69.68 extending an intermediate downtrend. <\/p>\n

\"clip_image013\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Industrial SPDRs<\/b> $XLI moved below $120.17 completing a double top pattern.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image014\"<\/a><\/b><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Adobe $<\/b>ADBE an S&P 100 stock moved above $496.76 setting an intermediate uptrend. The company reported higher than consensus quarterly results. <\/p>\n

\"clip_image015\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Target $<\/b>TGT an S&P 100 stock moved below $139.98 extending an intermediate downtrend. <\/p>\n

\"clip_image016\"<\/a><\/p>\n

PayPal<\/b> $PYPL moved below $60.85 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern<\/p>\n

\"clip_image017\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Toronto Dominion Bank<\/b> $TD.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$73.98 extending an intermediate downtrend. <\/p>\n

\"clip_image018\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Memorial for Greg Schnell <\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

from StockCharts<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Our charting community lost a great man last week. It is with a very heavy heart that I share the news that our dear friend Greg Schnell has passed.
A beloved member of the StockCharts family, Greg was truly a world-class technician – one who approached the markets with a genuine passion and beautifully deep curiosity. His encyclopedic knowledge of all things charting made him a guiding light for many of us, and his work has been a cornerstone of the StockCharts platform for years.
But most importantly, Greg was a wonderful human being. He was a warm, generous soul who approached every interaction with kindness, grace, and a smile from ear to ear. Greg made each and every one of us better – not just as investors, but as people.
Rest in peace, Greg.<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n\n\n\n
 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

AI MANIA STILL DRIVING STOCKS (SOME STOCKS) HIGHER: Mark Leibovit<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.howestreet.com\/2024\/06\/ai-mania-still-driving-stocks-higher-mark-leibovit<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bearish Divergences in 2 KEY Growth Stocks: BEWARE! David Keller<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=QjGQgHu-7oY<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s Money Talks for June 15th<\/sup> <\/b><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s MoneyTalks \u2013 Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Equal-Weight Losing Against Cap-Weight SPY: Erin Swenlin<\/b><\/p>\n

DP Trading Room: Equal-Weight Losing Against Cap-Weight SPY | DecisionPoint | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Why is 2% inflation so magical? Bob Hoye<\/b><\/p>\n

Why is 2% Inflation so \u201cMagical\u201d? \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Will the Fed do Multiple Rate Cuts This Year? Danielle Park<\/b><\/p>\n

Will the Fed do Multiple Rate Cuts This Year? \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image019\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 3.60 on Friday and dropped 5.60 last week to 43.60. It remains Neutral.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image020\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer dropped 1.60 on Friday and dropped 1.80 last week to 67.00. It remains Overbought.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image021\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 4.05 on Friday and plunged 29.28 last week to 36.49. It changed from Overbought to Oversold on a drop below 40.00. Daily trend remains down.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image022\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer dropped 2.70 on Friday and fell 4.06 last week to 61.71. It remains Overbought. Daily trend has turned down.<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b> Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at<\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com<\/em><\/a> are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday June 17th U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 7 points at 8:35 AM EDT. S&P 500 Index futures dropped 4 points following release of the June Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus called for an improvement to -12.50 from -15.60 in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-177353","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/177353","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=177353"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/177353\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":177361,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/177353\/revisions\/177361"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=177353"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=177353"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=177353"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}