{"id":177494,"date":"2024-06-24T02:22:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-24T06:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=177494"},"modified":"2024-06-24T08:51:29","modified_gmt":"2024-06-24T12:51:29","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-june-24th-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2024\/06\/24\/tech-talk-for-monday-june-24th-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday June 24th 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday June 24th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were up 3 points at 8:30 AM EDT.<\/em><\/p>\n

Gold <\/b>added $6.50 to$2,338.00 after JP Morgan noted its \u201cstructurally bullish\u201d opinion on Gold and Silver. Target for gold in 2025 is $2,600. Target for silver is $34.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image001[1]\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Anheuser Busch<\/b> added $1.72 to $60.78 after UBS upgraded the stock to buy.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image002\"<\/a><\/p>\n

BioNTech<\/b> advanced $2.05 to $86.69 after the FDA gave its cancer treatment a fast track designation. <\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image003[1]\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Altimmune<\/b> added $0.89 to $7.30 following positive results from its obesity trial trial.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"clip_image004\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

EquityClock\u2019s Stock Market Outlook for June 24th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Net assets on the Fed\u2019s balance sheet has developed a declining path, no longer supportive of the upside momentum of the equity market.<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/equityclock.com\/2024\/06\/22\/stock-market-outlook-for-june-24-2024\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Focus this week is on the May Core PCE Price Index released on Friday<\/b>. This report is the FOMC\u2019s most important indicator for inflation. A drop below the 2.8% annual rate set in April will signal easing inflation pressures and will set the stage for the traditional \u201cSummer Rally\u201d by U.S. equity indices lasting from the last week in June to at least end of July. Average gain per period for the \u201cSummer Rally\u201d for the S&P 500 Index during the past 20 periods was 3.0%. The trade was profitable in 15 of the past 20 periods. <\/p>\n

During Presidential Election years (like 2024), performance of the \u201cSummer Rally\u201d has been slightly different<\/b>. Based on 73 years of data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1950, the Summer Rally during Presidential Election years starts at the same time in the last week in June, but continues until mid-August. Average return per period was 2.5%.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image001\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The TSX Composite Index also has a history of moving higher from late June to the end of July.<\/b> The trade has been profitable in 14 of the past 20 periods. Average return per period was 1.8%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.FactSet.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Earnings gains in 2024 on a year-over-year basis accelerate in the second and third quarters from the first quarter when earnings increased 5.9%. <\/b>Consensus for the second quarter calls for an 8.8% earnings increase (versus 9.0% increase last week) and a 4.6% increase in revenues. Consensus for the third quarter calls for an 8.2% increase in earnings and a 4.9% increase in revenues. <\/p>\n

Earnings gains accelerate further in the fourth quarter.<\/b> Consensus calls for a 17.6% increase in earnings and a 5.5% increase in revenues (versus previous 5.6% increase). <\/p>\n

For all of 2024<\/b>, consensus calls for an 11.3% earnings increase and a 5.0% revenue increase.<\/p>\n

Earnings gains accelerate further in 2025<\/b>. First quarter earnings are expected to increase<\/p>\n

15.4 % on a year-over-year basis (versus previous 15.3% increase) and revenues are expected to increase 5.8%. Second quarter earnings are expected to increase 15.5% (versus previous 15.2%) and revenues are expected to increase 5.9%. For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 14.4% (versus previous 14.3% increase) and revenues are expected to increase 6.0%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.Investing.com<\/a><\/p>\n

May Canadian Consumer Price Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.5% increase in April. On a year-over-year basis, May Canadian CPI is expected to increase 2.6%, unchanged from April.<\/p>\n

May US New Home Sales<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase to 650,000 from 634,000.<\/p>\n

May Durable Goods Orders<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday <\/b>are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.7% in April.<\/p>\n

Next estimate of US First quarter annualized real GDP growth<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to remain unchanged at 1.3% versus a gain of 3.4% in the fourth quarter<\/p>\n

Core May PCE Price Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.2% in April. On a year-over-year basis, Core May PCE Price Index is expected to drop to 2.6% from 2.8% in April.<\/p>\n

May Personal Income<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.3% in April. May Personal Spending <\/b>is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in April.<\/p>\n

June Michigan Sentiment<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to drop to 67.6 from 69.1 in May.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Selected Earnings News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.Investing.com<\/a><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for June 21st<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

\"clip_image005\"<\/a> Green: Increase from previous day<\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: <\/em>www.EquityClock.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for June 21st<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

\"clip_image007\"<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/b><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Sectors <\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for June 21st<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

\"clip_image009\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

SUMMER SOLSTICE AND THE FULL MOON: Mark Leibovit<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.howestreet.com\/2024\/06\/summer-solstice-appears-to-be-affecting-markets-mark-leibovit\/<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Why Technical Analysis Does NOT Work for Leveraged ETFs: David Keller<\/b><\/p>\n

Why Technical Analysis Does NOT Work for Leveraged ETFs \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Market Concentration Concerns with Cameron Dawson and Guy Adami<\/b><\/p>\n

Market Concentration Concerns with Cameron Dawson \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Seasonality and Positive News Push These Stocks into an Uptrend: Mary Ellen McGonagle<\/b><\/p>\n

Seasonality and Positive News Push These Stocks into an Uptrend | The MEM Edge | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Gold Top? Focus on These Potential Price Objectives : Stewart Taylor<\/b><\/p>\n

Gold Top? Focus on These Potential Price Objectives | Fill The Gap by CMT Association | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Mike\u2019s Money Talks for June 22nd<\/sup> <\/b><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s MoneyTalks \u2013 Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Is Copper Really in a \u201cSuper Cycle\u201d? Bob Hoye<\/b><\/p>\n

Is Copper Really in a \u201cSuper Cycle\u201d? \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Trading Desk Notes For June 22, 2024: Victor Adair<\/b><\/p>\n

Trading Desk Notes For June 22, 2024 \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Canadian Financial Weakness Stands Out: Danielle Park<\/b><\/p>\n

Canadian Financial Weakness Stands Out \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical Scoop from David Chapman and <\/b>www.EnrichedInvesting.com<\/b><\/a> <\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Signal-impacts-some-highs-unresolved-divergences-precious-consolidation-election-division-oil-recovery.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Technical Scores<\/em><\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

Calculated as follows:<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Higher highs and higher lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Not up or down)<\/em><\/p>\n

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2<\/em><\/p>\n

          (Lower highs and lower lows)<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2<\/em><\/p>\n

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score \u20132<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1<\/em><\/p>\n

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Below 20 day moving average: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1<\/em><\/p>\n

Mixed momentum indicators: 0<\/em><\/p>\n

Down trending momentum indicators: \u20131<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell\/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower. <\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Changes Last Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image011\"<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n


<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Technical Notes for Friday<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

South Africa iShares<\/b> $EZA moved above $43.78 extending an intermediate uptrend. <\/p>\n

\"clip_image012\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Corn ETN<\/b> $CORN moved below $19.56 and $19.41 setting an intermediate downtrend. <\/p>\n

\"clip_image013\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image014\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer added 1.40 on Friday and gained 10.00 last week to 53.60. It remains Neutral.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image015\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer added 1.20 on Friday and gained 3.80 last week to 70.80. It remains Overbought.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image016\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 4.96 on Friday and dropped 5.86 last week to 30.63. It remains Oversold. Daily trend remains down.<\/p>\n

\"clip_image017\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer slipped 1.35 on Friday and dropped 4.50 last week to 57.21. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Daily trend remains down. <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b> Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at<\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com<\/em><\/a> are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday June 24th U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 3 points at 8:30 AM EDT. Gold added $6.50 to$2,338.00 after JP Morgan noted its \u201cstructurally bullish\u201d opinion on Gold and Silver. Target for gold in 2025 is $2,600. Target for silver is $34. Anheuser Busch […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-177494","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/177494","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=177494"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/177494\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":177505,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/177494\/revisions\/177505"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=177494"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=177494"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=177494"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}