{"id":180268,"date":"2024-09-30T02:22:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T06:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=180268"},"modified":"2024-09-30T08:52:47","modified_gmt":"2024-09-30T12:52:47","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-september-30th-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2024\/09\/30\/tech-talk-for-monday-september-30th-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday September 30th 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday September 30th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/sup><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were down 13 points at 8:30 AM EDT.<\/em><\/p>\n

Federal Reserve chairman Powell is scheduled to release a comment at 1:55 PM today<\/b>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Nikkei Average<\/b> dropped 1,910.10 to $37,919.55 after Ishiba\u2019s selection as Japan political leader. He noted that he plans to call for a election in Japan on October 27th<\/sup><\/em><\/p>\n

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U.S. auto stock stocks<\/b> moved lower after Stellates warned about Chinese auto maker competition in European. Ford dropped $0.34 to $10.78. General Motors dropped $1.78 to $44.70.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Nvidia <\/b>dropped $2.88 to $118.53 after China urged local technology companies to avoid inclusion of Nvidia\u2019s computer ships in their products.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Procter & Gamble<\/b> dropped $1.05 to $172.50 after Barclays downgraded the stock from Overweight to Equal Weight.<\/em><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

EquityClock\u2019s stock market outlook for September 30th<\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The S&P 500 Index has averaged a return of 1.1% in the month of October over the past 50 years with a frequency of gains during the month of 60%. See:<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/equityclock.com\/2024\/09\/28\/stock-market-outlook-for-september-30-2024\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Greatest influence on equity markets last week was the recovery in China <\/b>after the Peoples Bank of China added monetary stimulus to the economy. Chinese equity indices, ETFs and individual equities listed on North American equity markets soared. Sectors influenced by a recovery in China quickly caught the wave: North American gold, base metals, steel, forest product and agribusiness stocks and their related ETFs led the advance. Intermediate overbought U.S. and Canadian equity indices managed to move to new all-time highs.<\/p>\n

Historically, North American equity markets during the first two weeks in October have been volatile with a slight downside bias<\/b>: News this week by most major companies normally is quiet prior to release of third quarter results. Events that could influence equity markets this week include:<\/p>\n

\u00b7 Reports on impact of Hurricane Helene,<\/p>\n

\u00b7 A possible port strike on the East Coast starting on Tuesday<\/p>\n

\u00b7 Growing international tensions (particularly in the Middle East)<\/p>\n

\u00b7 Anticipation of a temporary slowdown in corporate earnings growth in the third quarter. See comment below.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues by S&P 500 companies<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.factset.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Earnings and revenue estimates for remainder of 2024 and 2025 were lowered slightly last week<\/b><\/p>\n

A word of caution!<\/b> Consensus for third quarter results calls for significantly lower than the 11.3% year-over-year earnings gain recorded in the second quarter. Third quarter earnings on a year-over-year basis are expected to slip to a 4.6% increase. Consensus for third quarter revenues calls for a 4.8% year-over-year increase (versus a 4.7% increase last week).<\/p>\n

Earnings gains accelerate in the fourth quarter.<\/b> Consensus calls for a 14.9% increase in earnings (versus a 15.0% increase last week) and a 5.3% revenue increase (versus a 5.2% increase last week).<\/p>\n

For all of 2024<\/b>, consensus calls for a 10.0% earnings increase and 5.1% revenue increase (versus a 5.0% increase last week).<\/p>\n

Earnings gains accelerate in 2025.<\/b> First quarter earnings are expected to increase 14.5 % on a year-over-year basis (versus a 14.6% increase last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.7% (versus a 5.6% gain last week). Second quarter earnings are expected to increase 13.6% (versus a 13.2% gain last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.5% (versus 5.6% last week). For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 15.1% (versus a 15.2% increase last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.9% (versus 6.0% last week.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.Investing.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Editor\u2019s Note<\/b>: Estimates were unavailable on Friday<\/p>\n

September Chicago Purchasing Managers Index<\/b> released at 9:45 AM EDT on Monday is expected to be unchanged from August at 46.1<\/p>\n

August Construction Spending<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.3% drop in July.<\/p>\n

September ISM Manufacturing PMI<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to improve to 47.6 from 47.2 in August.<\/p>\n

August Factory Orders<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 5.0% in July. <\/p>\n

September ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase to 51.8 from 51.5 in August.<\/p>\n

U.S. September Non-farm Payrolls<\/b> released at 8:30 AM on Friday are expected to increase to 144,000 from 142,000 in August. September Unemployment Rate <\/b>is expected to remain unchanged from August at 4.2%. September Average Hourly Earnings<\/b> are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% gain in August. <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Selected Earnings News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.Investing.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Seven S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report this week (including one Dow Industrial Average stock: Nike). No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report.<\/p>\n

\"changes<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n

Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for September 27th<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

\"spx<\/a><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: <\/em>www.EquityClock.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for September 27th<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

\"crb<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for September 27th<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

\"xlk<\/a><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Changes Last Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"real<\/a>
<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s Money Talks for September 28th<\/sup> <\/b><\/p>\n

September 28 Episode (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 9\/27\/24<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=6WH8Jz16_8A<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Top Ten Charts to Watch for October 2024: David Keller<\/b><\/p>\n

Top Ten Charts to Watch for October 2024 | The Mindful Investor w\/ David Keller, CMT | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Could U.S. Stocks Crash In October? Tom Bowley<\/b><\/p>\n

Could U.S. Stocks Crash In October? | Trading Places with Tom Bowley | StockCharts.com<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Opportunities in Industrials and Materials; Julius de Kampeneur<\/b><\/p>\n

Opportunities in Industrials and Materials | RRG Charts | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Nuclear Energy Back in Vogue: Bob Hoye<\/b><\/p>\n

Nuclear Energy Back in Vogue \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Trading Desk Notes for September 28, 2024: Victor Adair<\/b><\/p>\n

The Trading Desk Notes for September 28, 2024 \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

WTI Crude Down Over US$1\/b On Concerns About China Demand: Josef Schachter <\/b><\/p>\n

WTI Crude Down Over US$1\/b On Concerns About China Demand \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

This week in money: Ross Clark, Eric Hadik, Mark Leibovit<\/b><\/p>\n

This Week in Money \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

This Week’s "Sector to Watch" and "Industry Group to Watch": Erin Swenlin<\/b><\/p>\n

This Week’s "Sector to Watch" and "Industry Group to Watch" | DecisionPoint | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical Scoop for Sept. 30th<\/sup> from David Chapman and <\/b>www.EnrichedInvesting.com<\/b><\/a> <\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/library\/<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Technical Notes for Friday<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Water Resources ETF<\/b> $PHO moved above $70.28 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.<\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks breaking resistance on Friday<\/b> extending an intermediate uptrend included: Dow $DOW on a move above $55.24, Comcast $CMCDA) on a move above $41.63, Bristol-Myers $BMY) on a move above $51.19 and Trip.com $TCOM on a move above $60.65 (to an all-time high).<\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Magna International<\/b> $MG.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$58.26 completing a double bottom pattern.<\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Dollarama <\/b>$DOL.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$137.72 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.<\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer added 1.60 on Friday and gained 4.60 last week to 83.60. It remains Overbought.<\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer added 2.60 on Friday and gained 5.00 last week to 81.80. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is up. <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.45on Friday, but gained 4.14 last week to 78.48. It remains Overbought. Daily trend remains up.<\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday, but gained 1.04 last week to 78.03. It remains Overbought. Daily trend remains up.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b> Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at<\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com<\/em><\/a> are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday September 30th U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 13 points at 8:30 AM EDT. Federal Reserve chairman Powell is scheduled to release a comment at 1:55 PM today. Nikkei Average dropped 1,910.10 to $37,919.55 after Ishiba\u2019s selection as Japan political leader. He noted that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-180268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/180268","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=180268"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/180268\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":180279,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/180268\/revisions\/180279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=180268"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=180268"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=180268"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}