{"id":182121,"date":"2024-12-15T15:17:02","date_gmt":"2024-12-15T20:17:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=182121"},"modified":"2024-12-16T08:53:15","modified_gmt":"2024-12-16T13:53:15","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-december-16th-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2024\/12\/15\/tech-talk-for-monday-december-16th-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday December 16th 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/strong><\/font> <\/p>\n

Pre-opening Comments for Monday December 16th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning.<\/b> S&P 500 futures were up 19 points at 8:35 AM EST.<\/em><\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s Fall Economic Statement <\/b>by the Federal Government is released later today. <\/em><\/p>\n

Microstrategy<\/b> gained $18.52 to $427.98 on news that the stock will join the NASDAQ 100 Index next week<\/em><\/p>\n

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Super Micro Computer<\/b> dropped $1.48 to $36.45 on news the stock will leave the NASDAQ 100 Index next week.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Apple <\/b>added $0.64 to $248.77 on plans to introduce a foldable iPhone<\/em><\/p>\n

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EquityClock\u2019s Stock Market Outlook for December 16th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

The percent of stocks trading above 20-day moving averages has fallen to near oversold territory, providing an appealing setup to buy into beaten down market segments for the Santa Claus Rally period ahead. See:<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/equityclock.com\/2024\/12\/13\/stock-market-outlook-for-december-16-2024\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Technical Scoop for December 16th<\/sup><\/font> from David Chapman and <\/strong><\/font><\/em>www.EnrichedInvesting.com<\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/library\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Market Watch comment released yesterday<\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Record inflows into U.S. stocks to drive \u2018Santa rally\u2019 in last days of 2024, Goldman says<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/record-inflows-into-u-s-stocks-to-drive-santa-rally-in-last-days-of-2024-goldman-says-bf243f94?itm_source=parsely-api&mod=mw_pushly&send_date=20241215<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Focus is on the FOMC Interest Rate Decision on the Fed Fund Rate<\/b> released at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday. Consensus calls for a 0.25% reduction.<\/b><\/p>\n

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The S&P 500 Index currently is following its traditional pattern in the month of December: Flat to slightly lower in the first half followed by the \u201cSanta Claus rally\u201d in the second half. <\/b><\/p>\n

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Chart courtesy of www.EquityClock.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: <\/font>www.factset.com<\/font><\/a><\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Year-over-year earnings and revenue gains accelerate in the fourth quarter from the third quarter. <\/b>Consensus calls for an 11.8% earnings increase (down from 11.9% last week) and a 4.7% revenue increase (down from 4.8% last week).<\/p>\n

For all of 2024<\/b>, consensus calls for a 9.5% earnings increase (down from 9.6% last week) and a 5.1% revenue increase.<\/p>\n

Consensus for earnings gains in 2025 was unchanged last week.<\/b> First quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.8 % on a year-over-year basis and revenues are expected to increase 5.2%. Second quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.1% and revenues are expected to increase 5.4%. Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 15.2% and revenues are expected to increase 5.7%. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 16.9% and revenues are expected to increase 6.6%. For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 15.0% and revenues are expected to increase 5.8% (up from 5.7% last week)<\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

December Empire State Manufacturing Survey<\/b> is released at 8:30 AM EST on Monday<\/p>\n

Bank of Canada governor Maclem<\/b> speaks at 3:45 PM EST on Monday.<\/p>\n

November U.S. Retail Sales<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.5% versus a gain of 0.4% in October.<\/p>\n

November Canada Consumer Price Index <\/b>is <\/b>released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday<\/p>\n

November U.S. Industrial Production<\/b> released at 9:15 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a 0.3% drop in October. November Capacity Utilization <\/b>is expected to increase to 77.2% from 77.1% in October.<\/p>\n

October U.S. Business Inventories<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.1% increase in September. <\/p>\n

November U.S. Housing Starts<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase to 1.340 million units from 1.311 million units in October.<\/p>\n

FOMC Interest Rate Decision on the Fed Fund Rate<\/b> is released at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday. Press conference is held at 2:30 PM EST. Consensus calls a 0.25% reduction in the Fed Fund Rate.<\/p>\n

Bank of England interest rate decision<\/b> released at 8:15 AM EST is expected to maintain its lending rate at 4.75%.<\/p>\n

December Philly Fed<\/b> is released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday<\/p>\n

Updated U.S. Third Quarter GDP<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to grow at a 2.8% annual rate.<\/p>\n

November U.S. Existing Home Sales<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase to3.97 million units from 3.96 million units in October. <\/p>\n

November Leading Economic Indicators<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to slip 0.1% versus a 0.4% drop in October.<\/p>\n

November Core PCI Price Index<\/b> is released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday<\/p>\n

November Personal Income<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.6% increase in October. November Personal Spending <\/b>is expected to increase 0.5% versus a 0.4% gain in October.<\/p>\n

October Canadian Retail Sales<\/b> are released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday<\/p>\n

December Michigan Consumer Sentiment<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase to 74.0 from 71.8 in November. <\/p>\n

Selected Earnings News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for December 13th<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: <\/em>www.EquityClock.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for December 13th<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font> <\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for December 13th<\/sup> 2024<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Technical Notes<\/strong><\/font> <\/p>\n

Global Metals iShares<\/b> $PICK moved below $38.34 extending an intermediate downtrend. Leading the drop was Teck Resources<\/b> $TECK a TSX 60 stock on a move below US$44.44 and Cdn$62.67.<\/p>\n

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Global X Copper Miners<\/b> ETF $COPX moved below $40.72 extending an intermediate downtrend.<\/p>\n

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S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stock moving below support extending intermediate downtrends included Biogen<\/b> $BIIB, Bristol-Myers<\/b> $BMY, Regeneron<\/b> $REGN, American Electric Power<\/b> $AEP, ConocoPhillips<\/b> $COP, NXP Semiconductor<\/b> $NXPI,<\/p>\n

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Imperial Oil<\/b> $IMO.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below support at Cdn$96.72 completing a double top pattern.<\/p>\n

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Brookfield Infrastructure <\/b>$BIP a TSX 60 stock moved below US$33.05 and US$32.79 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.<\/p>\n

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Changes Last Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s Money Talks for December 14th<\/sup> <\/b><\/p>\n

(Includes an interview with Don Vialoux on the stock market outlook for 2025)<\/b><\/p>\n

December 14 Episode (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

Should You Be Taking Stock Profits Now? Mark Leibovit<\/b><\/p>\n

Should You Be Taking Stock Profits Now? \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

The AI Trade and Market Multiples: David Rosenberg\u2019s Insights on Current Market Conditions<\/b><\/p>\n

The AI Trade and Market Multiples: David Rosenberg\u2019s Insights on Current Market Conditions \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

Fitch’s outlook for Canadian banks in 2025<\/b><\/p>\n

Fitch’s outlook for Canadian banks in 2025 \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

Wilson on Stocks in 2025, Volatility, Fed, Correction Call<\/b><\/p>\n

Wilson on Stocks in 2025, Volatility, Fed, Correction Call \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 12\/13\/24<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=CLkizBUbRVw<\/a><\/p>\n

Identifying GREAT Trades and Looking Ahead to 2025 Using RRG Charts: Tom Bowley<\/b><\/p>\n

Identifying GREAT Trades and Looking Ahead to 2025 Using RRG Charts | Trading Places with Tom Bowley | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Historically \u2013 How Have Tariffs Worked Out? Bob Hoye<\/b><\/p>\n

Historically \u2013 How Have Tariffs Worked Out? \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

Trading Desk Notes for December 14, 2024:Victor Adair<\/b><\/p>\n

Trading Desk Notes for December 14, 2024 \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

Stock Market Outlook for 2025<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Don Vialoux was a guest on Michael Campbell\u2019s December 14th<\/sup> show. Michael\u2019s Money Talks Following are notes developed for the interview: <\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

History shows that U.S. equity markets record modest gains in Post U.S. Presidential Election years after an incumbent party loses and a new President is elected with a new mandate.<\/b> On Inauguration Day January 20th<\/sup> 2025, control of the U.S. political agenda is passed from the losing Democrats to the winning Republicans. On average since 1950, the S&P 500 Index under these circumstances has recorded an annual gain of only 4.8% implying an upside target for the S&P 500 Index in 2025 of 6,400<\/b>. Historic trends during the year are as follows<\/p>\n