{"id":182708,"date":"2025-01-12T22:43:55","date_gmt":"2025-01-13T03:43:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=182708"},"modified":"2025-01-13T08:45:29","modified_gmt":"2025-01-13T13:45:29","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-january-13th-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2025\/01\/12\/tech-talk-for-monday-january-13th-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday January 13th 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday January 13th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were down 38 points at 8:30 AM EST.<\/em><\/p>\n

WTI Crude oil<\/b> advanced $0.98 to a five month high at $77.55 per barrel after the U.S. raised sanctions against Russia\u2019s energy industry.<\/em> <\/p>\n

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Intra-cellular<\/b> Therapeutics<\/b> gained $33.86 to $128.63 after Johnson-& Johnson offered to buy the company in a deal valued at $14.6 billion.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Moderna<\/b> dropped $6.51 to $35.74 after the company offered sales guidance below consensus.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Sage Therapeutics<\/b> advanced $1.96 to $7.51 after Biogen offered to purchase the company at $7.22 per share cash.<\/em><\/p>\n

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EquityClock\u2019s stock market outlook for January 13th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Stronger than average reads of employment are pressuring yields and the dollar higher, resulting in a head-and-shoulders topping pattern on the chart of the S&P 500 Index. See:<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/equityclock.com\/2025\/01\/11\/stock-market-outlook-for-january-13-2025\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Technical Scoop for January 13th<\/sup> from David Chapman<\/strong><\/font> and <\/em>www.EnrichedInvesting.com<\/em><\/a> See:<\/em><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/library\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Good news on the economy in December was bad news for U.S. and Canadian equity markets on Friday<\/b>: Stronger than expected December Non-farm Payrolls in the U.S. and higher Canadian December employment exceeding consensus estimates were reported. In response, government bond yields on both sides of the border spiked higher and the prices of interest sensitive equities moved lower. Notably weaker on both sides of the border were equities in the financial services sector.<\/p>\n

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.factset.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Earnings and revenue gains accelerate in the fourth quarter from the third quarter. <\/b>Analyst c<\/b>onsensus calls for an 11.7% year-over-year earnings increase (versus an 11.9% increase last week) and a 4.7% revenue increase (versus a 4.6% increase last week). <\/p>\n

For all of 2024<\/b>, consensus calls for a 9.4% earnings increase and a 5.0% revenue increase.<\/p>\n

Analyst estimates for earnings and revenues for 2025 changed slightly last week. <\/b>Consensus <\/b>for first quarter earnings called for an 11.8 % increase on a year-over-year basis (versus an 11.9% increase last week). Consensus for first quarter revenues was unchanged with a 5.1% increase. Consensus for second quarter earnings was unchanged with an 11.6% increase and consensus for second quarter revenues was unchanged with a 5.0% increase. Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 15.3% (versus a 15.2% increase last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.7% (versus a previous 5.6% increase). Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 17.2% (versus a previous 16.6% increase) and revenues are expected to increase 6.7%. For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 14.8% and revenues are expected to increase 5.8%.<\/p>\n

Above average earnings growth is expected to continue into 2026, albeit at a slightly lower rate.<\/b> Consensus calls for a 13.6% earnings increase and a 6.4% revenue increase. <\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

December U.S. Producer Price Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% increase in November. On a year-over-year basis, consensus calls for a 3.0% increase versus a 3.0% increase in November.<\/p>\n

December U.S. Consumer Price Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.3% increase in November.<\/p>\n

January Empire State Manufacturing Survey<\/b> is released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday<\/p>\n

December U.S. Retail Sales<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase 0.5% versus a 0.7% increase in November. Excluding auto sales, December Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.2% increase in November.<\/p>\n

January Philly Fed Index<\/b> is released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday<\/p>\n

November U.S. Business Inventories<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase 0.6% versus a gain of 0.1% in October. <\/p>\n

December U.S. Housing Starts<\/b> are released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday<\/p>\n

December U.S. Industrial Production <\/b>released at 9:15 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.1% drop in November. December Capacity Utilization <\/b>is expected to increase to 77.6% from 76.8% in November. <\/p>\n

Selected Earnings News This Week<\/strong><\/font> <\/p>\n

Twenty S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results this week (including three Dow Jones Industrial Average companies: JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and UnitedHealth Group).<\/p>\n

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Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for January 10th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: <\/em>www.EquityClock.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for January 10th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

\"clip_image008\"<\/a><\/b> <\/i><\/b><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/font> <\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for January 10th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Changes last week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

Technical Notes for Friday<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

S&P 500 Index<\/b> moved below 5,832.30 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.<\/p>\n

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Dow Jones Industrial Average<\/b> moved below 42,146.33 setting an intermediate downtrend.<\/p>\n

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United States Oil Fund <\/b>$USO moved above $79.31 extending an intermediate uptrend.<\/p>\n

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China Large Cap iShares<\/b> $FXI moved below $28.93 setting an intermediate downtrend.<\/p>\n

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U.S. Financial ETFs<\/b> moving below support and extending downtrends included Financial SPDRs (XLF), U.S. Insurance iShares (IAK), S&P Bank SPDRs (KBE), U.S. Broker\/Dealers (IAI).<\/p>\n

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S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks moving below support on Friday<\/b> setting intermediate downtrends included Blackrock, Berkshire Hathaway, PayPal, Microchip Technology, ON Semiconductor, Take Two, Procter & Gamble, JD.com, Monster Beverages, Travelers, Autodesk, NextEra Energy, Bank of New York Mellon, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Duke Energy, McCormick,<\/p>\n

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TSX 60 stocks moving below support<\/b> on Friday<\/b> setting intermediate downtrends included Sun Life Financial, Manulife Financial, Open Text, Royal Bank, Saputo and Restaurant Brands International<\/p>\n

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Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Crypto\u2019s Sucking Money Out of Gold Market? Mark Leibovit<\/b><\/p>\n

Crypto\u2019s Sucking Money Out of Gold Market? \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

S&P 500 Breakdown Alert! Downside Targets Explained: David Keller<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=DKRRajYZrFQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Yields Spike After Hot Jobs Report: Dan Nathan, Liz Young Thomas and Guy Adami<\/b><\/p>\n

Note comment on the energy sector<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=7C7feoJ9MYw&t=80s<\/a><\/p>\n

Mike\u2019s Money Talks for January 11th<\/sup> 2025<\/b><\/p>\n

January 11 Episode (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

Trading Desk Notes for January11th: Victor Adair<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.howestreet.com\/2025\/01\/trading-desk-notes-for-january-11-2025\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Is Deflation Good for the Economy? Bob Hoye<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.howestreet.com\/2025\/01\/is-deflation-good-for-the-economy-bob-hoye\/<\/a><\/p>\n

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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The intermediate term Barometer dropped 9.00 on Friday and fell 7.40 last week to17.20. It remains Oversold. Daily trend is down.<\/p>\n

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The long term Barometer dropped 4.40 on Friday and fell 5.20 last week. It remains Neutral. Daily trend is down.<\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"clip_image025\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 4.93 on Friday and dropped 7.18 last week to 39.01. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a move below 40.00.<\/p>\n

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The long term Barometer dropped 1.35 on Friday and fell 3.58 last week to 64.13. It remains Overbought.<\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b> Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at<\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com<\/em><\/a> are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday January 13th U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 38 points at 8:30 AM EST. WTI Crude oil advanced $0.98 to a five month high at $77.55 per barrel after the U.S. raised sanctions against Russia\u2019s energy industry. Intra-cellular Therapeutics gained $33.86 to $128.63 after […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-182708","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/182708","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=182708"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/182708\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":182718,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/182708\/revisions\/182718"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=182708"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=182708"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=182708"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}