{"id":182899,"date":"2025-01-21T01:24:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-21T06:24:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=182899"},"modified":"2025-01-21T08:57:58","modified_gmt":"2025-01-21T13:57:58","slug":"tech-talk-for-tuesday-january-21st-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2025\/01\/21\/tech-talk-for-tuesday-january-21st-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Tuesday January 21st 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday January 21st<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were up 24 points at 8:35 AM EST.<\/em><\/p>\n

The Canadian Dollar<\/b> dropped 0.50 to U.S. 69.22 cents following news that tariffs on Canadian goods exported to the U.S. will take effect on February 1st<\/sup><\/em><\/p>\n

The Canadian Dollar eased an additional US 0.05 cents following release of Canada\u2019s December Consumer Price Index<\/b> at 8:30 AM EST. On a year-over-year basis, consensus was a 1.8% increase versus a 1.9% increase in November. Actual was a 1.8% increase.<\/em><\/p>\n

MMM <\/b>advanced $4.75 to a four year high at $145.78 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings. The company also offered positive revenue guidance for 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n

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DR Horton <\/b>added $4.60 to $152.25 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter earnings. <\/em><\/p>\n

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FifthThird Bank <\/b>gained $0.56 to $44.90 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter results.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

EquityClock\u2019s Market Outlook for January 21st<\/sup> 2025<\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Shining light on the Industrial sector into the first days of the Trump presidency. See:<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/equityclock.com\/2025\/01\/17\/stock-market-outlook-for-january-21-2025\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Technical Scoop for January 20th<\/sup> from David Chapman and <\/font><\/strong><\/font><\/em>www.EnrichedInvesting.com<\/font><\/strong><\/em><\/a> . See:<\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/library\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/em><\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Focus this week is on fourth quarter earnings reports released by large cap U.S. companies<\/b>. Results released to date (9% of S&P 500 companies) have exceeded consensus estimates.<\/em><\/p>\n

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.factset.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Earnings and revenue gains are expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter from the third quarter.<\/b> Better than consensus fourth quarter results released last week prompted a<\/b>nalysts to raise their earnings estimate to a 12.5% year-over-year increase (up from an 11.7% increase) The increase was prompted by higher than consensus quarterly results from major money center banks. Consensus for revenue gains was unchanged last week at 4.7%. <\/p>\n

For all of 2024<\/b>, consensus calls for a 9.4% earnings increase and 4.9% revenue increase (versus a 5.0% revenue increase last week)<\/p>\n

Analyst estimates for earnings and revenue gains for 2025 changed slightly last week. <\/b>Consensus <\/b>for first quarter earnings called for an 11.6 % increase on a year-over-year basis (versus an 11.8% increase last week). Consensus for first quarter revenues was unchanged with a 5.1% increase. Consensus for second quarter earnings was unchanged with an 11.6% increase and consensus for second quarter revenues was unchanged with a 5.0% increase. Consensus for third quarter earnings increase was a 15.2%, down from a 15.3% increase last week. Consensus for third quarter revenues calls for a 5.7% increase, down from a previous 5.6% increase. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 16.7% (versus a previous 17.2% increase) and revenues are expected to increase 6.7%. For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 14.8% and revenues are expected to increase 5.9% (versus a previous 5.8% increase).<\/p>\n

Above average earnings gains are expected to continue into 2026, albeit at a slightly slower rate than 2025.<\/b> Consensus calls for a 13.6% earnings increase and a 6.4% revenue increase. <\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Canada December Consumer Price Index <\/b>is released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday<\/p>\n

Canada November Retail Sales<\/b> are released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday<\/p>\n

December U.S. Existing Home Sales<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday are expected to increase to 4.16 million units from 4.15 million units in November<\/p>\n

January Michigan Consumer Sentiment<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to slip to 73.2 from 74.0 in December.<\/p>\n

Selected Quarterly Earnings Reports This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Another 43 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report (including six Dow Jones Industrial Average companies). No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report.<\/p>\n

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Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for January 17th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: <\/em>www.EquityClock.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for January 17th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day <\/b><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for January 17th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Changes last week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s MoneyTalks for January 18th<\/sup> <\/b><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s MoneyTalks \u2013 Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

Ross Clark: Markets. Eric Hadik: Market Cycles. Mark Leibovit: Inflation, Solar Cycles, Trump<\/b><\/p>\n

Ross Clark: Markets. Eric Hadik: Market Cycles. Mark Leibovit: Inflation, Solar Cycles, Trump \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

Oh The Humanity: Bonds, Bitcoin & Bye Bye Hindenburg: Guy Adami and Danny Moses.<\/b><\/p>\n

Oh The Humanity: Bonds, Bitcoin & Bye Bye Hindenburg \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

The bullish case for gold continues: BNN<\/b><\/p>\n

The bullish case for gold continues \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

Could the S&P see gains following Trump inauguration? Yahoo Finance<\/b><\/p>\n

Could the S&P see gains following Trump inauguration? \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

CHART THIS: Epic Friday All-Mailbag Edition (1\/17\/25) David Keller<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=9UpsJ0Suv5w<\/a><\/p>\n

Weekly Update with Larry Berman – Jan 18, 2024<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=oy9oH4tc62Q<\/a><\/p>\n

Jim Cramer looks at next week’s market game plan<\/b><\/p>\n

Jim Cramer looks at next week’s market game plan \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

Where will the S&P go following Trump’s inauguration?<\/b><\/p>\n

Where will the S&P go following Trump’s inauguration? \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

L.A. Fires to Hit More Than Insurance Industry: Bob Hoye<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.howestreet.com\/2025\/01\/l-a-fires-to-hit-more-than-insurance-industry-bob-hoye\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Technical Notes<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Dow Jones Industrial Average<\/b> $INDU moved above 43,373.98 set on December 26th<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

Dow Jones Industrial Average SPDRs<\/b> $DIA moved above intermediate resistance at $433.51 set on December 26th<\/sup>. <\/p>\n

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MMM<\/b> $MMM a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $139.98 to a 39 month high extending an intermediate uptrend. <\/p>\n

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Morgan Stanley<\/b> $MS an S&P 100 stock moved above $136.24 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. <\/p>\n

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Bank of New York Mellon <\/b>$BK an S&P 100 stock moved above $82.72 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.<\/p>\n

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S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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The intermediate term Barometer added another 4.00 on Friday and jumped 26.00 last week to 42.20. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a move above 40.00.<\/p>\n

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The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and gained 9.60 last week to 60.40. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00.<\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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The intermediate term Barometer added 5.41 on Friday and gained 2.43 last week to 41.44. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a recovery above 40.00.<\/p>\n

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The long term Barometer added 0.90 on Friday, but slipped 0.17 last week to 63.96. It remains Overbought.<\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b> Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at<\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com<\/em><\/a> are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday January 21st U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 24 points at 8:35 AM EST. The Canadian Dollar dropped 0.50 to U.S. 69.22 cents following news that tariffs on Canadian goods exported to the U.S. will take effect on February 1st The Canadian Dollar eased […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-182899","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/182899","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=182899"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/182899\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":182905,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/182899\/revisions\/182905"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=182899"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=182899"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=182899"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}