{"id":183053,"date":"2025-01-26T17:44:27","date_gmt":"2025-01-26T22:44:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=183053"},"modified":"2025-01-27T08:45:24","modified_gmt":"2025-01-27T13:45:24","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-january-27th-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2025\/01\/26\/tech-talk-for-monday-january-27th-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday January 27th 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday January 27th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were sharply lower this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures dropped 120 points at 8:30 AM EST.<\/em><\/p>\n

Leading the weakness were Artificial Intelligence stocks on concern that China\u2019s DeepSeek has developed a lower cost technology. Nvidia <\/b>plunged $17.06 to $125.75. Microsoft<\/b> dropped $26.55 to $417.51<\/em><\/p>\n

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AT&T<\/b> added $0.41 to $23.13 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Sofi Technologies<\/b> plunged $2.80 to $15.12 after offering a lower than consensus outlook<\/em><\/p>\n

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Equity Clock – Market Outlook for January 27, 2025<\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Momentum in the market is waning as the technology sector loses its grip on investor portfolios. See: <\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/equityclock.com\/2025\/01\/24\/stock-market-outlook-for-january-27-2025\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Technical Scoop<\/strong><\/font> for January 27th<\/sup> from David Chapman and <\/strong><\/font><\/em>www.EnrichedInvesting.com<\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/library\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Primary focus this week is on central bank news released on Wednesday<\/b>. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its Fed Fund Rate at 4.50% and the Bank of Canada is expected to lower its lending rate to Canada\u2019s major banks to 3.00% from 3.25%. Investors will be watching closely for guidance on the direction for future rate changes.<\/p>\n

Fourth quarter earnings report season ramps up this week.<\/b> Results released to date have exceeded consensus. Focuses this week are on reports released on Wednesday by Microsoft, Meta and IBM and on Thursday by Apple and Amazon.<\/p>\n

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.factset.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Fourth quarter results released to date have been encouraging:<\/b> 16% of S&P 500 companies have reported results: 80% have reported higher than consensus earnings and 62% have reported higher than consensus revenues. Better than consensus fourth quarter earnings results released last week prompted a<\/b>nalysts to raise their fourth quarter earnings estimate to a 12.7% year-over-year increase, up from a previous 12.5% increase. Consensus for revenue gains slipped last week to 4.6%, down from a previous 4.7% increase. <\/p>\n

For all of 2024<\/b>, consensus calls for a 9.5% earnings increase (up from 9.4% last week) and a 4.9% revenue increase.<\/p>\n

Analyst estimates for earnings and revenue gains for 2025 changed slightly last week. <\/b>Consensus <\/b>for first quarter earnings called for an 11.3 % increase on a year-over-year basis, down from an 11.6% increase last week. Consensus for first quarter revenues slipped to a 5.0% increase from a previous 5.1% increase. Consensus for second quarter earnings was unchanged with an 11.6% increase and consensus for second quarter revenues was unchanged with a 5.0% increase. Consensus for third quarter earnings calls for a 15.3% increase, up from a 15.2% increase last week. Consensus for third quarter revenues calls for a 5.6% increase, down from a previous 5.7% increase last week. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 16.6%, down from a previous 16.7% increase. Fourth quarter revenues are expected to increase 6.7%.<\/p>\n

For all of 2025<\/b> earnings are expected to increase 14.8% and revenues are expected to increase 5.9%.<\/p>\n

Above average earnings gains are expected to continue into 2026, albeit at a slightly slower rate than the second half of 2025.<\/b> Consensus calls for a 13.6% earnings increase and a 6.4% revenue increase. <\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

December U.S. New Home Sales<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday are expected to increase to 670,000 units from 664,000 units in November.<\/p>\n

December Durable Goods Orders<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.8% versus a 1.1% decline in November.<\/p>\n

Bank of Canada\u2019s Decision on interest rates<\/b> is released at 9:45 AM EST on Wednesday. Consensus calls for a 0.25% drop to 3.00%. Press Conference is offered at 10:30 AM EST<\/p>\n

FOMC decision on interest rates<\/b> is released at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday. Consensus calls for no change in the Fed Fund Rate at 4.50%. Press conference is offered at 2:30 AM EST.<\/p>\n

Fourth quarter U.S. GDP<\/b> is released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday<\/p>\n

December Core PCE Price Index<\/b> is released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday<\/p>\n

December U.S. Personal Income<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.3% gain in November. December U.S. Personal Spending is expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.4% gain in November. <\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s November GDP<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to ease 0.1% versus a 0.3% increase in October.<\/p>\n

Selected Earnings News This Week<\/strong><\/font> <\/p>\n

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Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for January 24th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: <\/em>www.EquityClock.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for January 24th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day <\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for January 24th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Changes last week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Technical Notes for Friday<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

TSE Information Technology Index <\/b>moved above Cdn$298.70 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. <\/p>\n

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AstraZeneca<\/b> $AZN a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $69.00 completing a double bottom pattern. The company announced plans to spend Cdn$820 million to expand Canadian operations.<\/p>\n

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Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s Money Talks for January 25th<\/sup> <\/b><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s MoneyTalks \u2013 Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

Stocks Driven Higher by AI Energy Demand: Mark Leibovit<\/b><\/p>\n

Stocks Driven Higher by AI Energy Demand \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

What to expect from the BoC amid Trump’s threats: BNN<\/b><\/p>\n

What to expect from the BoC amid Trump’s threats \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Mike Wilson\u2019s 2025 Outlook: Valuations, Inflation & the AI Economy<\/b><\/p>\n

Mike Wilson\u2019s 2025 Outlook: Valuations, Inflation & The AI Economy \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

We’re preparing for a record $1.5 trillion of buybacks this year, says Goldman Sachs’ Meena Flynn<\/b><\/p>\n

We’re preparing for a record $1.5 trillion of buybacks this year, says Goldman Sachs’ Meena Flynn \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 1\/24\/25<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=V1lIs75xJGE<\/a><\/p>\n

Comment on Semiconductors sector: David Keller<\/b><\/p>\n

Semiconductors Have More to Prove Before Breakout is Believed | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Gold Juniors Carry High Potential: Bob Hoye<\/b><\/p>\n

Gold Juniors Carry High Potential \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

The US Definitely Needs Canadian Oil and Gas: Josef Schachter<\/b><\/p>\n

The US Definitely Needs Canadian Oil and Gas \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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The intermediate term Barometer slipped 1.40 on Friday, but gained 9.40 last week to 51.60. It remains Neutral. Daily trend is up.<\/p>\n

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The long term Barometer slipped 0.20 on Friday, but gained 1.40 last week to 61.80. It remains Overbought.<\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.45 on Friday, but gained 10.36 last week to 51.80. It remains Neutral. Daily trend is up.<\/p>\n

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The long term Barometer dropped 1.80 on Friday, but gained 2.26 last week to 66.22. <\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b> Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at<\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com<\/em><\/a> are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday January 27th U.S. equity index futures were sharply lower this morning. S&P 500 futures dropped 120 points at 8:30 AM EST. Leading the weakness were Artificial Intelligence stocks on concern that China\u2019s DeepSeek has developed a lower cost technology. Nvidia plunged $17.06 to $125.75. Microsoft dropped $26.55 to $417.51 AT&T added […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-183053","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183053","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=183053"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183053\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":183063,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183053\/revisions\/183063"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=183053"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=183053"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=183053"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}