{"id":183260,"date":"2025-02-02T16:08:51","date_gmt":"2025-02-02T21:08:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=183260"},"modified":"2025-02-03T08:46:01","modified_gmt":"2025-02-03T13:46:01","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-february-3rd-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2025\/02\/02\/tech-talk-for-monday-february-3rd-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday February 3rd 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday February 3rd<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures are sharply lower this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were down 92 points at 8:30 AM EST. Index futures around the world moved lower following President Trump\u2019s announcement on tariffs that will hit U.S. imports starting tomorrow.<\/em><\/p>\n

The Canadian Dollar<\/b> plunged 0.63 to US68.14 cents following the tariff news. It fell in overnight news to a 22 year low at US68.50 cents before recovering.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Ford<\/b> dropped $0.42 to $9.66 and General Motors<\/b> plunged $3.48 to $45.98 following the tariff news. The U.S. auto industry\u2019s supply chain is expected to be disrupted by tariffs.<\/em><\/p>\n

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EquityClock\u2019s Stock Market Outlook for February 3rd<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Performance of the equity market during the month of February is typically lacklustre with the S&P 500 Index averaging a gain of a mere 0.1%, on average, over the past five decades. See:<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/equityclock.com\/2025\/02\/01\/stock-market-outlook-for-february-3-2025\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Technical Scoop for February 3rd<\/sup><\/strong><\/font> by David Chapman and <\/strong><\/font><\/em>www.EnrichedInvesting.com<\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/a> See:<\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/library\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Fourth quarter results released to date by S&P 500 companies have been impressive<\/b>. They prompted analysts to raise their consensus fourth quarter earnings estimate for the S&P 500. On the other hand, analyst also lowered their consensus S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2025. Robust earnings growth is expected in 2025, but at a slightly lower rate. <\/p>\n

Earnings focuses this week<\/b> are on Meta on Tuesday and Amazon on Thursday<\/p>\n

After the close on Friday, President Trump confirmed that a 25% tariff<\/b> on Mexican and Canadian imports into the U.S. initially will become effective on February 1st<\/sup>. Full implementation and impact on equity markets have yet to be determined.<\/p>\n

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.factset.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Fourth quarter results released last week were encouraging:<\/b> 36% of S&P 500 companies have reported results to date: 77% have reported higher than consensus quarterly earnings and 63% have reported higher than consensus quarterly revenues. Better than consensus fourth quarter earnings prompted a<\/b>nalysts to raise their fourth quarter S&P 500 earnings estimate to a 13.2% year-over-year increase, up from a 12.7% increase last week. Also, consensus for revenue gains increased to 4.8%, up from a 4.6% increase last week. <\/p>\n

For all of 2024<\/b>, consensus calls for a 9.4% earnings increase and a 5.1% revenue increase.<\/p>\n

Analyst estimates for earnings and revenue gains for 2025 were lowered slightly last week. <\/b>Consensus <\/b>for first quarter earnings called for a 10.1 % increase on a year-over-year basis, down from an 11.3% increase last week. Consensus for first quarter revenues slipped to a 4.8% increase down from the previous 5.0% increase. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains dropped to 10.9% from an 11.6% increase last week and consensus for second quarter revenues was lowered to a 4.8% increase from a 5.0% increase. Consensus for third quarter earnings dropped to a 14.9% increase, down from a 15.3% increase last week. Consensus for third quarter revenues dropped to a 5.5% increase, down from a previous 5.6% increase last week. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 16.1%, down from a previous 16.6% increase. Fourth quarter revenues are expected to increase 6.4%, down from 6.7% last week.<\/p>\n

For all of 2025<\/b> earnings are expected to increase 14.3%, down from 14.8% last week and revenues are expected to increase 5.7%, down from a 5.9% gain last week.<\/p>\n

Above average earnings gains are expected to continue into 2026, albeit at a slightly lower rate than consensus for the second half of 2025.<\/b> Consensus calls for a 13.7% earnings increase, up from 13.6% last week. and a 6.4% Consensus for revenue gains .remains at 6.4%. <\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

December U.S. Construction Spending <\/b>released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday is expected to increase 0.3% versus no change in November. <\/p>\n

January ISM Manufacturing PMI<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday is expected to improve to 49.3 from 49.2 in December.<\/p>\n

December U.S. Factory Orders<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to drop -.7% versus a 0.4% decline in November.<\/p>\n

December U.S. Trade Deficit<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase to $97.10 billion from $78.20 billion in November.<\/p>\n

December Canadian Trade Balance<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to be a $400 million surplus versus a $320,000 deficit in November.<\/p>\n

January ISM Non-manufacturing PMI<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase to 54.2 from 54.1 in December.<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

January U.S. Non-farm Employment Report <\/b>is released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday. <\/p>\n

January Canadian Employment<\/b> is released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday<\/b><\/p>\n

February Michigan Consumer Sentiment<\/b> is released at 10:00 AM<\/p>\n

Selected Earnings News This Week<\/font><\/p>\n

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Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for January 31st<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: <\/em>www.EquityClock.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for January 31st<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font> <\/b><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for January 31st<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

Changes last week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Technical Notes for Friday<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Australia All Ordinaries Index<\/b> $AORD moved above 8,771.30 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.<\/p>\n

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Platinum ETN<\/b> $PPLT moved above $88.59 extending an intermediate uptrend.<\/p>\n

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Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s Money Talks for February 1st<\/sup> <\/b><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s MoneyTalks \u2013 Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

TRUMP TARIFF WAR VS. CANADA ABOUT TO START: Mark Leibovit<\/b><\/p>\n

Trump Tariff War vs Canada About to Start \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

Key Fed measure shows core inflation at 2.8%, in line with expectations: Rick Santelli<\/b><\/p>\n

Key Fed measure shows core inflation at 2.8%, in line with expectations \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

We’re in the midst of an ABC corrective wave, says Fairlead Strategies’ Katie Stockton<\/b><\/p>\n

We’re in the midst of an ABC corrective wave, says Fairlead Strategies’ Katie Stockton \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

Apple is a low growth stock with a high multiple, says Dan Niles<\/b><\/p>\n

Apple is a low growth stock with a high multiple, says Dan Niles \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

SPX Made Up "Lots of Ground," Stay Wary of Tariff Volatility<\/b><\/p>\n

SPX Made Up "Lots of Ground," Stay Wary of Tariff Volatility \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

Mike Wilson on Earnings, Fed, Tech Stocks<\/b><\/p>\n

Mike Wilson on Earnings, Fed, Tech Stocks \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

Contrarian Market Economist David Rosenberg on Rethinking His \u201cBubble\u201d Thesis but Staying Bearish<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=XK09ousjJFk<\/a><\/p>\n

Jay Hatfield on His Year-End Forecast SPX 7000, Fed Rate Cuts, and Magnificent 7 Earnings<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Iu2fHwnWl4M<\/a><\/p>\n

DeepSeek Rattles AI Stocks – Should You Buy The Dip?<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=jRSGIb9kJic<\/a><\/p>\n

Trading Desk Notes for February 1st<\/sup> : Victor Adair<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/victoradair.ca\/trading-desk-notes-for-february-1-2025\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Will Gold Replace USD as World Reserve Currency? Bob Hoye<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.howestreet.com\/2025\/01\/will-gold-replace-usd-as-world-reserve-currency-bob-hoye\/<\/a><\/p>\n

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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The intermediate term Barometer dropped 5.80 on Friday and slipped 0.60 last week. After briefly moving above 60.00 to Overbought, it returned to Neutral at the end of the week.<\/p>\n

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The long term Barometer dropped 2.00 on Friday, but gained 0.20 last week. It remains Overbought.<\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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The intermediate term Barometer dropped 8.56 on Friday and 13.06 last week to 38.74. It changed on Friday from Neutral to Oversold on a move below 40.00.<\/p>\n

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The long term Barometer dropped 6.31 on Friday and dropped 4.06 last week to 62.16. It remains Overbought.<\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b> Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at<\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com<\/em><\/a> are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday February 3rd U.S. equity index futures are sharply lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 92 points at 8:30 AM EST. Index futures around the world moved lower following President Trump\u2019s announcement on tariffs that will hit U.S. imports starting tomorrow. The Canadian Dollar plunged 0.63 to US68.14 cents following […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-183260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183260","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=183260"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183260\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":183268,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183260\/revisions\/183268"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=183260"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=183260"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=183260"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}