{"id":183457,"date":"2025-02-09T13:27:14","date_gmt":"2025-02-09T18:27:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=183457"},"modified":"2025-02-10T08:51:02","modified_gmt":"2025-02-10T13:51:02","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-february-10th-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2025\/02\/09\/tech-talk-for-monday-february-10th-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday February 10th 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday February 10th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning.<\/b> S&P 500 futures were up 33 points at 8:30 AM EST.<\/em><\/p>\n

Steel ETF<\/b> $SLX advanced $2.11 to $63.45 in anticipation of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports to the U.S. expected to be announced today.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Gold prices moved higher following the tariff announcement on steel and aluminum Gold bullion futures <\/b>gained $42.40 to an all-time high at $2,930.00 per ounce.<\/em> <\/p>\n

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Rockwell Automation<\/b> advanced $26.59 to $294.99 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter earnings. <\/em><\/p>\n

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McDonald\u2019s<\/b> added $6.17 to $300.47 after reporting higher same store sales in the fourth quarter.<\/em><\/p>\n

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EquityClock\u2019s Stock Market Outlook for February 10th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

A better than average change in employment for January failed to act as the catalyst to break the cap that overhangs the equity market. See: <\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/equityclock.com\/2025\/02\/08\/stock-market-outlook-for-february-10-2025\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Technical Scoop for February 10th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font> from David Chapman and <\/font><\/em>www.EnrichedInvesting.com<\/font><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/library\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Despite better than consensus fourth quarter earnings and revenue reports released to date by large cap U.S. and Canadian companies, equity market indices on both sides of the border have stalled below their all-time highs set at the end of January. Analysts have started to take a more cautious stance on strong earnings and revenue gains expected in 2025.<\/b><\/p>\n

Political uncertainty in Canada and the U.S. is expected to remain high in February, dampening investor enthusiasm in the short term.<\/b><\/p>\n

As noted on February 4th<\/sup> by www.EquityClock.com<\/a>, \u201cLooking to become more Neutral in portfolio positioning at this seasonally weak time of year. See:<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/equityclock.com\/2025\/02\/03\/stock-market-outlook-for-february-4-2025\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.factset.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Fourth quarter results released last week were encouraging:<\/b> 62% of S&P 500 companies have reported results to date: 77% have reported higher than consensus quarterly earnings and 63% have reported higher than consensus quarterly revenues. Better than consensus fourth quarter earnings prompted a<\/b>nalysts to raise their fourth quarter S&P 500 earnings estimate to a 16.4% year-over-year increase, up from a 13.2% increase last week. Also, consensus for revenue gains increased to 5.2%, up from a 4.8% increase last week.<\/p>\n

For all of 2024<\/b>, consensus calls for a 10.1% earnings increase, up from 9.4% last week. Consensus calls for a 5.2% revenue increase, up from a 4.8% increase lasts week<\/p>\n

Analyst estimates for earnings and revenue gains for 2025 were lowered again last week. <\/b>Consensus <\/b>for first quarter earnings calls for an 8.7 % increase on a year-over-year basis, down from a 10.1% increase last week. Consensus for first quarter revenues slipped to a 4.5% increase down from a 4.8% increase last week. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains dropped to 10.2% from a 10.9% increase last week and consensus for second quarter revenues was lowered to a 4.7% increase, down from a 4.8% increase. Consensus for third quarter earnings dropped to a 14.5% increase, down from a 14.9% increase. Consensus for third quarter revenues dropped to a 5.4% increase, down from a previous 5.5% increase. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 13.3%, down from a previous 16.1% increase. Fourth quarter revenues are expected to increase 6.0%, down from a 6.4% increase last week.<\/p>\n

For all of 2025<\/b> earnings are expected to increase 13.0%, down from 14.3% last week and revenues are expected to increase 5.5%, down from a 5.7% gain last week.<\/p>\n

Earnings gains are expected to continue into 2026, albeit at a slightly slower rate than consensus for the second half of 2025.<\/b> Consensus calls for a 13.8% earnings increase, up from 13.7% last week. Consensus for revenue gains .remains at 6.4%.<\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell<\/b> testifies to the Joint Economic Committee at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

January U.S. Consumer Price Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% gain in December. On a year-over-year basis, January CPI is expected to increase 2.9% versus a 2.9% increase in December. Excluding food and energy, consensus calls for a 0.3% increase versus a 0.2% increase in December.<\/p>\n

January U.S. Producer Price Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.2% gain in December. Excluding food and energy, the January Index is expected to increase 0.3% versus no change in December.<\/p>\n

January U.S. Retail Sales<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to be unchanged versus a 0.4% increase in December. Excluding auto sales, January Sales are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% increase in December<\/p>\n

January U.S. Capacity Utilization<\/b> released at 9:15 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase to 77.7% from 77.6% in December. January Industrial Production is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.9% increase in December. <\/b><\/p>\n

December U.S. Business Inventories <\/b>released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday are expected to increase 0.1% versus a 0.1% gain in November.<\/p>\n

Selected Earnings Reports This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Another 78 S&P 500 companies<\/b> are scheduled to report this week (including three Dow Jones Industrial Average companies: McDonald\u2019s, Cisco and Coca Cola). Another thirteen TSX 60 companies <\/b>are scheduled to report.<\/p>\n

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<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for February 7th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: <\/em>www.EquityClock.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for February 7th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font> <\/b><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for February 7th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Changes last week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Technical Notes<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Base metals equities and their related ETFs are experiencing a belated seasonal upswing that normally occurs from the end of November until the end of February. Global Metals and Mining Producers iShares<\/b> $PICK moved above $36.89 completing a double bottom pattern.<\/p>\n

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T-Mobile<\/b> $TMUS an S&P 100 stock moved above $248.15 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend<\/p>\n

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Much of the technical weakness on Friday can be attributed to breakdowns through support by Alphabet<\/b> and Nike<\/b> extending intermediate downtrends.<\/p>\n

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Power Corp<\/b> $POW.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$47.29 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.<\/p>\n

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Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s Money Talks for February 8th<\/sup> <\/b><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s MoneyTalks \u2013 Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

Signals Stock Markets Should Stay Positive: Mark Leibovit <\/b><\/p>\n

Signals Stock Markets Should Stay Positive \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

Central Bank Rate Cuts Not Road to Prosperity: Bob Hoye<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.howestreet.com\/2025\/02\/central-bank-rate-cuts-not-road-to-prosperity-bob-hoye\/<\/a><\/p>\n

The S&P 500’s Rocky Road To 6600 with RBC\u2019s Lori Calvasina: Guy Adami and Dan Nathan<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=0bDNsFH0aLs<\/a><\/p>\n

CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 2\/7\/25<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=RAriH9JDXYo<\/a><\/p>\n

Weekly Update with Larry Berman – February 8, 2025<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=hvG-IhVwFPY<\/a><\/p>\n

David Rosenberg Explains Why Inflation & Interest Rates Will Go Lower: Wealthtrack<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=l8PR5qMEI5I<\/a><\/p>\n

Canadian Energy & Oil Markets: Tariffs, Pipelines & Future Growth | Ninepoint Energy Market Update<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=L1Cll7q2CZ8<\/a><\/p>\n

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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The intermediate term Barometer dropped 1.80 on Friday and slipped 0.60 last week to 50.60. It remains neutral<\/p>\n

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The long term Barometer slipped 0.60 on Friday and dropped 2.60 last week to 59.40. It changed last week from Overbought to Neutral. Daily trend is down.<\/p>\n

The short term (20 day) Barometer peaked at 83.20 on January 27th<\/sup> and closed at 54.80 on Friday. Daily downtrend was extemded.<\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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The intermediate term Barometer dropped 1.81 on Friday, but gained 4.70 last week to 43.44. It changed last week from Oversold to Neutral on a recovery above 40.00.<\/p>\n

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The long term Barometer dropped 1.38 on Friday and slipped 0.17 last week to 61.99. It remains Overbought.<\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b> Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at<\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com<\/em><\/a> are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday February 10th U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 33 points at 8:30 AM EST. Steel ETF $SLX advanced $2.11 to $63.45 in anticipation of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports to the U.S. expected to be announced today. Gold prices moved higher […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-183457","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183457","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=183457"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183457\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":183467,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183457\/revisions\/183467"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=183457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=183457"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=183457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}