{"id":184035,"date":"2025-03-02T22:47:41","date_gmt":"2025-03-03T03:47:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=184035"},"modified":"2025-03-03T08:51:24","modified_gmt":"2025-03-03T13:51:24","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-march-3rd-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2025\/03\/02\/tech-talk-for-monday-march-3rd-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday March 3rd 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday March 3rd<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were up 26 points at 8:30 AM EST.<\/em><\/p>\n

Southwest Airlines<\/b> dropped $0.80 to $30.26 after JP Morgan downgraded the stock from Neutral to Under Weight<\/em><\/p>\n

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Chipotle <\/b>advanced $1.41 to $55.38 after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock from Equal Weight to Overweight.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Intel <\/b>added $1.21 to $24.94 on news that Broadcom and Nvidia could become potential manufacturing customers.<\/em><\/p>\n

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EquityClock\u2019s Market Outlook for March 3rd<\/sup><\/font><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

March is one of the strongest months of the year for stocks with the S&P 500 Index rising by an average of 1.1% and gaining in 66% of periods over the past five decades. See: <\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/equityclock.com\/2025\/02\/28\/stock-market-outlook-for-march-3-2025\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Technical Scoop for March 3rd<\/sup><\/strong><\/font> from David Chapman and <\/strong><\/font><\/em>www.EnrichedInvesting.com<\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/library\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

The period of seasonal outperformance by the TSX Composite Index came to an end last week. Contributions into RRSPs until February 28th<\/sup> are a major reason for outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index.<\/p>\n

Technical breakdowns below intermediate support last week by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ Composite Index will require time for technical repair before moving higher into the traditional spring rally period. Broadly based U.S. equity indices have a history of moving lower into mid-March. Concern about reaching an agreement on the U.S. Federal Debt by March 14th<\/sup> adds to short term uncertainties. History is repeating. Patience by traders will be rewarded.<\/p>\n

CNN\u2019s Fear and Greed Index for U.S. equity markets dropped to 20% on Friday: Extreme Fear <\/p>\n

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Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.factset.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Fourth quarter results released during the past two weeks prompted analysts to raise quarterly estimates again:<\/b> 97% of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results to date: 75% have reported higher than consensus earnings and 63% have reported higher than consensus revenues. Better than consensus fourth quarter earnings prompted a<\/b>nalysts to raise their fourth quarter S&P 500 earnings estimate to a 18.2% year-over-year increase, up from a 16.9% increase two weeks ago. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 5.3% from 5.2%. <\/p>\n

For all of 2024,<\/b> consensus calls for a 10.4% earnings increase, up from 10.2% two weeks ago. Consensus for a revenue increase remained at 5.2%<\/p>\n

Analyst estimates for earnings gains for 2025 were lowered again during the past two weeks. <\/b>Consensus <\/b>for first quarter earnings calls for a 7.6 % increase on a year-over-year basis, down from an 8.1% increase two weeks ago. Consensus for first quarter revenues slipped to a 4.3% increase, down from a 4.4% increase. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains dropped to 9.8% from a 9.9% increase two weeks ago. Consensus for second quarter revenues remained at a 4.7% increase. Consensus for third quarter earnings dropped to a 14.3% increase, down from a 14.4% increase. Consensus for third quarter revenues growth remained at a 5.5% increase. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 11.6%, down from a previous 12.9% increase. Fourth quarter revenues gains were unchanged at 6.1%.<\/p>\n

For all of 2025,<\/b> earnings are expected to increase 12.1%, down from a 12.7% increase two weeks ago. Revenues gains were unchanged at 5.5%.<\/p>\n

Earnings gains are expected to accelerate into 2026<\/b>. Consensus calls for a 14.0% earnings increase, up from 13.9% two weeks ago. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 6.5% from a previous 6.4%. <\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

U.S. January Construction Spending<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday is expected to drop0.1% versus a 0.5% gain in December<\/p>\n

February ISM Manufacturing PMI<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday is expected to slip to 50.6 from 50.9 in January<\/p>\n

February ISM Non-manufacturing PMI<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase to 53.0 from 52.8 in January.<\/p>\n

U.S. January Factory Orders <\/b>released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase 1.5% versus a 0.9% decrease in December.<\/p>\n

European Central Bank interest rate decision<\/b> is released at 8:15 AM EST on Thursday<\/p>\n

U.S. January Trade Deficit<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to recover to $93.10 billion from $98.4 billion in December<\/p>\n

January Canadian Trade Surplus<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase to $1.40 billion from $0.70 billion in December<\/p>\n

U.S. January Wholesale Inventories<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase 0.7% versus a 0.7% gain in December.<\/p>\n

February Non-farm Payrolls<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to slip to 133,000 from 143,000 in January. February Unemployment Rate <\/b>is expected to remain unchanged from January at 4.0%. February Average Hourly Earnings<\/b> are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.5% gain in January.<\/p>\n

February Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate<\/b> are released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday.<\/p>\n

Selected Earnings News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Nine S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report this week. Two TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report. <\/p>\n

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Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for February 28th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: <\/em>www.EquityClock.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for February 28th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font> <\/b><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for February 28th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Technical Notes<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

India ETF<\/b> $PIN moved below $23.48 extending an intermediate downtrend.<\/p>\n

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S&P 100 stocks breaking to all-time highs included MMM<\/b> $MMM on a move above $154.24 and Raytheon Technologies<\/b> $RTX on a move above $131.76<\/p>\n

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AutoDesk<\/b> $ADSK a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $279.84 extending an intermediate downtrend.<\/p>\n

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Broadcom<\/b> $AVGO a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $196.23 extending an intermediate downtrend<\/p>\n

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CGI Group<\/b> $GIB a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$105.78 and US$105.28 setting an intermediate downtrend.<\/p>\n

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Teck Resources<\/b> $TECK.B.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$57.15 and Cdn$57.17 extending an intermediate downtrend. <\/p>\n

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Changes last week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Mike\u2019s Money Talks for March 1st<\/sup> <\/b><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s MoneyTalks \u2013 Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

Why Stock Markets Could Drop Until Spring: Mark Leibovit<\/b><\/p>\n

Why Stock Markets Could Drop Until Spring \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

Tom Lee\u2019s 2025 Playbook: Bears Sound Smart But Are Usually Wrong!<\/b><\/p>\n

Tom Lee\u2019s 2025 Playbook: Bears Sound Smart But Are Usually Wrong! \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 2\/28\/25<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=MMTY2eRcNGM<\/a><\/p>\n

Hidden MACD SIGNAL? Key Trade Signals Explained! Joe Rabil<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=K-O3FrNTKno<\/a><\/p>\n

Weekly Update with Larry Berman – March 1, 2025<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=UXhgLXebp0o<\/a><\/p>\n

Growth Stocks Tumbling. Where to Find Safe Havens Now! Mary Ellen McGonagle<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=p4ApIzltGe8<\/a><\/p>\n

3 Compelling Charts in the Financial Sector: David Keller<\/b><\/p>\n

3 Compelling Charts in the Financial Sector | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

The Top is Confirmed and Now It’s Just a Matter of How Low We Go: Tom Bowley<\/b><\/p>\n

The Top is Confirmed and Now It’s Just a Matter of How Low We Go | Trading Places with Tom Bowley | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Victor Adair\u2019s Trading Desk Notes for March 1st<\/sup> <\/b><\/p>\n

Trading Desk Notes for March 1, 2025 \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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The intermediate term Barometer added 6.00 on Friday and gained 2.00 last week to 55.20. It remains Neutral.<\/p>\n

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The long term Barometer added 2.00 on Friday and gained 0.20 last week to 60.00. It remains Neutral<\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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The intermediate term Barometer added 2.73 on Friday and gained 1.82 last week to 47.73. It remains Neutral.<\/p>\n

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The long term Barometer added 0.45 on Friday and slipped 0.45 last week to 58.64. It remains Neutral.<\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b> Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at<\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com<\/em><\/a> are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday March 3rd U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 26 points at 8:30 AM EST. Southwest Airlines dropped $0.80 to $30.26 after JP Morgan downgraded the stock from Neutral to Under Weight Chipotle advanced $1.41 to $55.38 after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock from Equal […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-184035","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/184035","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=184035"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/184035\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":184043,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/184035\/revisions\/184043"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=184035"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=184035"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=184035"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}