{"id":184420,"date":"2025-03-16T18:51:17","date_gmt":"2025-03-16T22:51:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=184420"},"modified":"2025-03-17T08:56:54","modified_gmt":"2025-03-17T12:56:54","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-march-17th-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2025\/03\/16\/tech-talk-for-monday-march-17th-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday March 17th 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday March 17th<\/sup><\/font><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were down 4 points at 8:35 AM EDT.<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

Index futures recovered 13 points following release of February U.S. Retail Sales and March Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for February U.S. Retail Sales<\/b> was a 0.6% increase versus a downwardly revised 1.2% drop in January. Actual was a 0.2% gain. Excluding auto sales<\/b>, February Retail Sales were expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% drop in January. Actual was a 0.3% gain. <\/b>Consensus for March Empire State Manufacturing Survey<\/b> was a 1.80 drop versus a 5.70 gain in February. Actual was a 20.00 drop.<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Royal Bank lowered its S&P 500 target<\/b> from 6,600 to 6,200<\/b><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Gold <\/b>added $3.37 to US$3000.31 per ounce after UBS raised its target price from US$3,000 to US$3,200 per ounce.<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

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Crude oil<\/b> advanced $0.86 to $68.04 after the U.S. launched air strikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen.<\/font><\/font><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

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Nvidia<\/b> added $1.37 to $122.99 in anticipation of a keynote speech tomorrow by CEO Jensen Huang at the GTC AI Conference. <\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

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EquityClock\u2019s Market Outlook for March 17th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

We let down some of our guard on the equity market prior to Friday\u2019s rally and there is no reason not to do more. See:<\/font><\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/equityclock.com\/2025\/03\/15\/stock-market-outlook-for-march-17-2025\/<\/font><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Technical Scoop <\/font>from David Chapman and <\/font><\/strong><\/font><\/em>www.EnrichedInvesting.com<\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/library\/<\/font><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Focus this week is on the FOMC decision on U.S. interest rates released on Wednesday<\/b>. Consensus calls for no change in the Fed Fund Rate currently at 4.5%.<\/p>\n

Extension of the U.S. Debt Ceiling to the end of September passed by the Senate on Friday night is expected to help U.S. equity prices on Monday morning. <\/b><\/p>\n

Seasonal influences for U.S. and Canadian equity markets have a history of bottoming in mid-March prior to the spring rally into early May<\/b>. Larry Williams released a video on Friday that supports that possibility for U.S. equity markets this year. Following is a link to Larry\u2019s video:<\/p>\n

https:\/\/stockcharts.com\/tv\/<\/a><\/p>\n

.<\/p>\n

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Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.factset.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Analyst estimates for earnings gains for 2025 were lowered again. <\/b>Consensus <\/b>for first quarter earnings calls for a 7.1 % increase on a year-over-year basis, down from a 7.3% increase last week. Consensus for first quarter revenues growth slipped to 4.2% from 4.3%. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains dropped to 9.5% from 9.7% last week. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains remained at a 4.7%. Consensus for third quarter earnings dropped to a 12.0% increase, down from a previous 12.1% increase. Consensus for third quarter revenues growth remained last week at 5.4%. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 11.5%, down from 11.6% last week Fourth quarter revenues gains were unchanged at 6.1%.<\/p>\n

For all of 2025,<\/b> earnings are expected to increase 11.5%, down from an 11.6% increase last week. Revenue gains were 5.4%, unchanged from last week.<\/p>\n

Earnings gains are expected to accelerate into 2026<\/b>. Consensus calls for a 14.2% earnings increase, up from 14.1% last week Consensus for revenue gains remained at 6.5%.<\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

February U.S. Retail Sales<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday are expected to increase 0.6% versus a 0.9% drop in January. Excluding food and energy, February Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% drop in January.<\/p>\n

March Empire State Manufacturing Survey<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday is expected to drop 1.90 versus a 5.70 gain in February.<\/p>\n

January U.S. Business Inventories<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.2% decrease in December.<\/p>\n

February U.S. Housing Starts<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase to 1.380 million units from 1.366 million units in January.<\/p>\n

Canadian February Consumer Price Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.6% versus a 0.1% gain in January. On a year-over-year basis, February CPI is expected to increase 2.1% versus a 1.9% increase in January. <\/p>\n

February U.S. Industrial Production<\/b> released at 9:15 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.5% increase in January. February Capacity Utilization<\/b> is expected to be unchanged from January at 77.8%.<\/p>\n

FOMC\u2019s decision<\/b> on U.S. interest rate is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday. Consensus for the Fed Fund Rate is unchanged at 4.50%. Press conference is offered at 2:30 PM EDT.<\/p>\n

March Philly Fed Index<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to slip to 9.4 from 18.1 in February.<\/p>\n

U.S. February Existing Home Sales<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to slip to 3.94 million units from 4.08 million units in January. <\/p>\n

U.S. February Leading Economic Indicators<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to drop 0.2% versus a 0.3% drop in January.<\/p>\n

Selected Earnings Reports This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Ten S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report quarterly results this week (including one Dow Jones Industrial company: Nike) No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report quarterly results this week.<\/p>\n

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Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for March 14th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/em><\/p>\n

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: <\/em>www.EquityClock.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for March 14th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font> <\/b><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/em><\/p>\n

Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for March 14th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/em><\/p>\n

Changes last week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

Technical Notes for Friday<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Nil<\/p>\n

Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s Money Talks for March 15th<\/sup> <\/b><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s MoneyTalks \u2013 Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

Energy Realities & the Twilight of U.S. Shale | Key Takeaways from CERAWeek | Eric Nuttall<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=topc3tXU888<\/a><\/p>\n

Sector Rotation Breakdown: Spotting Market Leaders Now<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=PMb2xzANhNw<\/a><\/p>\n

What If Fort Knox Gold is Missing? Mark Leibovit<\/b><\/p>\n

What If Fort Knox Gold is Missing? \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 3\/14\/25<\/b><\/p>\n

(Looking for a counter trend rally by U.S. equity markets)<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=cVaGotdyr-U<\/a><\/p>\n

New Uptrend Coming? Key Signals & Trading Strategies for Oversold Stocks: Mary Ellen McGonagle<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=esQ0UT8MFGw<\/a><\/p>\n

Three Reasons to Consider Gold: David Keller<\/b><\/p>\n

Three Reasons to Consider Gold | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

A Tariff Caused Recession, Will Cause More Tariffs::Bob Hoye<\/b><\/p>\n

A Tariff Caused Recession, Will Cause More Tariffs \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

Trading Desk Notes for March 15, 2025: Victor Adair<\/b><\/p>\n

Trading Desk Notes for March 15, 2025 \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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The intermediate term Barometer advanced 5.80 to 34.20 on Friday. It remains Oversold. Early signs of a recovery?<\/p>\n

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The long term Barometer advanced 4.80 to 40.60 on Friday. It recovered to Neutral from Oversold on a move above 40.00.<\/p>\n

Short term (20 day) Barometer jumped 10.00 to 29.00. It remains Oversold. Early technical evidence of a recovery?<\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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The intermediate term Barometer advanced 5.91 to 45.00 on Friday. It recovered from Oversold to Neutral on a move back above 40.00.<\/p>\n

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The long term Barometer added 3.64 to 52.27 on Friday. It remains Neutral.<\/p>\n

Short term (20 day) Barometer jumped 10.00 to $42.73 on Friday. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a move above 40.00.<\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b> Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at<\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com<\/em><\/a> are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday March 17th U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 4 points at 8:35 AM EDT. Index futures recovered 13 points following release of February U.S. Retail Sales and March Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for February U.S. Retail Sales was a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-184420","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/184420","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=184420"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/184420\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":184428,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/184420\/revisions\/184428"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=184420"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=184420"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=184420"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}