{"id":185650,"date":"2025-05-05T00:37:02","date_gmt":"2025-05-05T04:37:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=185650"},"modified":"2025-05-05T09:00:27","modified_gmt":"2025-05-05T13:00:27","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-may-5th-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2025\/05\/05\/tech-talk-for-monday-may-5th-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday May 5th 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday May 5th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were down 45 points at 8:30 AM EDT.<\/em><\/p>\n

Crude oil<\/b> dropped $0.74 to $57.55 per barrel after OPEC announced plans to increase production. <\/em><\/p>\n

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Netflix <\/b>dropped $52.69 to $1,103.80 after President Trump announced plans to place a tariff on films produced outside of the United States. <\/em><\/p>\n

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Berkshire Hathaway<\/b> dropped $12.30 to $527.50 after Warren Buffet confirmed his intention to retire at the end of the year.<\/em> <\/p>\n

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Freshpet<\/b> dropped $0.74 to $57.55 after offering lower guidance. <\/em><\/p>\n

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EquityClock\u2019s Market Outlook for May 5th<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Everything outside of the US is breaking out as equity investors rotate to other countries around the globe with greater certainty. See:<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/equityclock.com\/2025\/05\/02\/stock-market-outlook-for-may-5-2025\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

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The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Sell in May and go away? <\/b>History of the Dow Jones Industrial Average during Post Presidential Election Years since 1950 (e.g. 2025) shows a shallow period of weakness from mid-May to the end of September (including a brief summer rally to the end of July). Average drop during the period was 2.0%. <\/p>\n

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Strength during the mid-March to mid-May period depended on<\/b>:<\/p>\n

\u00b7 Anticipation of encouraging corporate news released at annual meetings normally held following release of first quarter results. CEO\u2019s love to offer good news during shareholder meetings.<\/p>\n

\u00b7 Economic growth that normally recovers during the Spring season (including a recovery in economic activity related to the Easter season).<\/p>\n

What about this year?<\/b> Conditions have been exaggerated this year due to President Trump\u2019s moves on tariffs. Major U.S. listed companies are reporting significantly higher than consensus first quarter revenues and earnings partially because consumers are buying extra goods (e.g discretionary goods such as.autos) prior to implementation of tariffs. Accordingly, first quarter results released to date by major listed companies have been substantially higher then consensus. Analysts have responded by raising consensus for S&P 500 first quarter earnings.. However, many companies also have issued warnings about dropping revenue and earnings gains beyond the first quarter. Analysts have responded by lowering revenue and earnings estimates for the remainder of 2025.<\/p>\n

How have equity prices responded to these events?<\/b> U.S. equity indices have recorded strong gains since the second week in April. Short term (20 days) momentum index for S&P 500 stocks advanced from 2.00% on April 7th<\/sup> to 86.60 % on Friday, a level that is significantly overbought and not sustainable. The stage for a short term correction in U.S. equity indices (i.e. return to the mean) has been set. Technical evidence for a start of the correction as of Friday has yet to appear.<\/p>\n

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Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Source: www.factset.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Analyst estimates for earnings gains for the first quarter of 2025 increased substantially again last week after reported results significantly exceeded consensus: <\/b>72% of S&P 500 companies have reported to date. <\/b>Consensus <\/b>for first quarter earnings now calls for a 12.8% increase on a year-over-year basis, up from 10.1% last week. Consensus for first quarter revenues growth increased to 4.8% from 4.6%.<\/p>\n

Analyst estimates for 2025 beyond the first quarter once were reduced significantly again<\/b>. Analysts are responding to frequent company comments that \u201cAlthough first quarter results were better than expected, we are cautious about future quarters<\/b>\u201d. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains dropped to 5.7% from 6.4% last week. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains remained at 4.0%. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains dropped to 7.8% from 8.8% last week. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth dropped to 4.7% from 4.8%. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains dropped to 7.1% from 8.3% last week. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains increased to 5.3% from 5.0%.<\/p>\n

For all of 2025,<\/b> earnings are expected to increase 9.5%, down from 9.7% last week. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 5.0%.<\/p>\n

For all of 2026<\/b>, earnings are expected to increase 11.1%, down from 13.8% last week. Consensus for revenue gains was unchanged at 6.3%, <\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

April ISM Non-manufacturing PMI<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday is expected to slip to 50.6 from 50.8 in March<\/p>\n

March U.S. Trade Deficit<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase to $124.70 billion from $122.70 billion in February.<\/p>\n

March Canadian Trade Deficit<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase to $1.70 billion from 1.52 billion in February. <\/p>\n

FOMC Interest Rate Decision<\/b> is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday Consensus calls for no change in the Fed Fund Rate at 4.50%. Press conference is offered at 2:30 PM EDT.<\/p>\n

First quarter Non-farm Productivity<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to drop 0.4% versus a 1.5% gain in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n

March Wholesale Inventories<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.5% versus a 0.5% gain in February.<\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s April Employment<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 24,500 versus a 32,600 drop in March. April Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged from March at 6.7%.<\/p>\n

Selected Earnings News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Another 92 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report this week <\/b>(including one Dow Jones Industrial Average stock: Disney). Twelve TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report<\/b>.<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

MONDAY<\/b>: Berkshire Hathaway, Palantir, Cummins, Ford, ON Technology, Mattel, Baytex<\/b><\/p>\n

TUESDAY: <\/b>AMD, Duke Energy, Marriott, Suncor<\/b>, Electronic Arts, Datadog, Kinross Gold<\/b>, Super Micro Computer, Mosaic<\/p>\n

WEDNESDAY<\/b>: Uber, Walt Disney, ARM, Door Dash, Emerson Electric, Manulife Financial<\/b>, Nutrien, Fortis<\/b>, CF Industries. <\/p>\n

THURSDAY:<\/b> Toyota, Anheuser Busch, Shopify<\/b>, ConocoPhillips, McKesson, Brookfield, Canadian Natural Resources, Sun Life Financial. Restaurant Brands International, <\/b>Microchip Technology, Pembina Pipeline, BCE<\/b>, Expedia, Molson Coors<\/p>\n

FRIDAY:<\/b> Enbridge, Telus<\/b>, Onex, Algonquin Power<\/b><\/p>\n

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Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for May 2nd<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: <\/em>www.EquityClock.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for May 2nd<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font> <\/b><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for May 2nd<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

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Green: Increase from previous day<\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/em><\/p>\n

Changes last week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Mike\u2019s Money Talks for May 3rd<\/sup> <\/b><\/p>\n

May 3 Episode – Michael Campbell’s Money Talks – Omny.fm<\/a><\/p>\n

US Stock Market May Have Already Bottomed: Mark Leibovit<\/b><\/p>\n

US Stock Market May Have Already Bottomed \u2013 HoweStreet<\/a><\/p>\n

Sector Rotation + SPY Seasonality = Trouble for Bulls? Julius de Kempanear<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=aIpgjygC3fM<\/a><\/p>\n

What Does Mark Carney\u2019s Election Win Mean For Your Money? | In the Money with Amber Kanwar<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=F0eDelGmmrA&t=293s<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 5\/2\/25<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=pblJ3IrIVYU<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Technical Scoop For May 5th<\/sup> from David Chapman and <\/b>www.EnrichedInvesting.com<\/b><\/a> <\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/library\/<\/a><\/p>\n

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Technical Notes<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

All-time highs were set by iShares tracking equity indices outside of the U.S.<\/b> included EAFE iShares (EFA), Eurozone iShares (EZU), Europe iShares (IEV), South Africa iShares (EZA) and Canada iShares (EWC)<\/p>\n

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Aerospace & Defense ETFs<\/b> that broke to all-time highs included ITA and PPA<\/p>\n

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S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stock breakouts,<\/b> extending intermediate uptrends, included Travelers, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), Tesla (TSLA) Paychex (PAYX), Cintas (CTAS), DexCom (DXCM), Electronic Arts (EA) and NetEase (NTES). No breakdowns!<\/p>\n

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S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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The intermediate term Barometer jumped 15.40 to 56.40. It remains Neutral. Daily uptrend was extended.<\/p>\n

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The long term Barometer added 6.40 to 44.00. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a move above 40.00.<\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

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The intermediate term Barometer added 5.05 to 59.63. It remains Neutral. Daily uptrend was extended.<\/p>\n

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The long term Barometer added 2.75 to 53.67. It remains Neutral. Daily uptrend was extended.<\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b> Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at<\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com<\/em><\/a> are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday May 5th U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 45 points at 8:30 AM EDT. Crude oil dropped $0.74 to $57.55 per barrel after OPEC announced plans to increase production. Netflix dropped $52.69 to $1,103.80 after President Trump announced plans to place a tariff on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-185650","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185650","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=185650"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185650\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":185660,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185650\/revisions\/185660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=185650"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=185650"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=185650"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}