{"id":186721,"date":"2025-06-15T14:12:24","date_gmt":"2025-06-15T18:12:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=186721"},"modified":"2025-06-15T14:12:24","modified_gmt":"2025-06-15T18:12:24","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-june-16th-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2025\/06\/15\/tech-talk-for-monday-june-16th-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday June 16th 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Volatility<\/b> spiked in U.S. equity markets on Friday mainly due to the increasing military conflict between Israel and Iran. The VIX Index moved above 20%.<\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Weakness in the U.S. Dollar<\/b> to a three year low also contributed to U.S. stock market weakness. Investment dollars are moving away from the U.S. <\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Economic focus this week<\/b> is on the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates on Wednesday. Consensus calls for no change in the Fed Fund Rate at 4.50%. <\/p>\n

U.S. equities are following their traditional \u201cflat to lower\u201d price trend in the month of June. <\/b><\/p>\n

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies<\/strong><\/font> <\/p>\n

Source: www.factset.com <\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Analyst estimates for 2025 beyond the first quarter remained virtually unchanged last week. <\/b>Consensus for second quarter earnings gains remained at 4.9%. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains remained at 4.1%. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains remained at 7.2%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth increased to 4.7% from 4.6%. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains slipped to 6.2% from 6.3%. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains increased to 5.2% from 5.1%. <\/p>\n

For all of 2025, <\/b>earnings are expected to increase 9.0% versus 9.1% last week. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 5.0% from 4.9%. <\/p>\n

For all of 2026<\/b>, earnings are expected to increase 13.7%, up from 13.5% last week. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 6.3% from 6.2%.<\/p>\n

Economic News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

June Empire State Manufacturing Survey<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday is expected to improve to -5.90 from -9.20 in May<\/p>\n

May U.S. Retail Sales<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to drop 0.6% versus a 0.1% gain in April. Excluding auto sales, May Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.1% increase in April.<\/p>\n

May U.S. Capacity Utilization<\/b> released at 9:15 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to remain unchanged from April at 77.7. May Industrial Production is expected to be unchanged versus unchanged in April.<\/p>\n

May Housing Starts<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to slip to 1.360 million units from 1.361 million units in April.<\/p>\n

Federal Reserve decision on the Fed Fund Rate<\/b> is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday Consensus calls for no change at 4.50%.<\/p>\n

June Philly Fed<\/b> released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to improve to -1.2 from -4.0 in May. <\/p>\n

May U.S. Leading Economic Indicators<\/b> released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase to -0.1 from -1.0 in April.<\/p>\n

Selected Earnings News This Week<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Monday: <\/b>Lennar<\/p>\n

Thursday:<\/b> Carnival<\/p>\n

Friday:<\/b> Accenture, Darden Restaurants<\/p>\n

Trader\u2019s Corner<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"traders<\/a><\/font><\/p>\n

Equity Indices and Related ETFs<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Equity Trends for June 13th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

\"spx<\/a><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/p>\n

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Commodities Trends for June 13th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

\"crb<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day <\/b><\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/p>\n

Sectors<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Daily Seasonal\/Technical Sector Trends for June 13th<\/sup> 2025<\/p>\n

\"xlk<\/a><\/p>\n

Green: Increase from previous day<\/p>\n

Red: Decrease from previous day<\/p>\n

Changes last week<\/strong><\/font> <\/p>\n

\"changes<\/a><\/p>\n

Links offered by valued providers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s Money Talks for June 14th<\/sup> <\/b><\/p>\n

Michael Campbell\u2019s MoneyTalks \u2013 Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n

Trade Tracker: Bill Baruch’s commodity moves<\/b><\/p>\n

Trade Tracker: Bill Baruch’s commodity moves \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

Consumer spending slows in May: CNBC\/NRF Retail Monitor: Steve Leasman<\/b><\/p>\n

Consumer spending slows in May: CNBC\/NRF Retail Monitor \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

Expect the market to catch up to reality later this year, says Dan Niles<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n

Expect the market to catch up to reality later this year, says Dan Niles \u2013 YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n

Bearish Divergence Suggests Caution For S&P 500: Dave Keller<\/b><\/p>\n

Bearish Divergence Suggests Caution For S&P 500 | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Trading Desk Notes for June 14, 2025: Victor Adair<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.howestreet.com\/2025\/06\/trading-desk-notes-for-june-14-2025\/<\/a><\/p>\n

This week in money: Rick Ackerman and Mark Leibovit<\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.howestreet.com\/2025\/06\/trading-trends-us-real-estate-market-cycles-bitcoin-rick-ackerman-mark-leibovit-this-week-in-money\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Technical Notes<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

WTI Crude Oil and its related ETN: USO<\/b> moved sharply higher following start of the Israel\/Iran conflict<\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Ditto for TSX Energy stocks and their related ETFs<\/b><\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Major \u201cOily\u201d energy stocks in the TSX 60 Index that moved above resistance extending an intermediate uptrend included Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor<\/b> and Cenovus Energy<\/b><\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 7.40 on Friday and slipped 1.20 last week to 72.20. It remains Overbought<\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer dropped 4.00 on Friday and 2.40 last week to 49.80. It remains Neutral. <\/p>\n

The short term (20 days) Barometer plunged 25.00 on Friday to 40.40 and down from its mid-May peak at 89.00.<\/p>\n

TSX Momentum Barometers<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The intermediate term Barometer slipped 1.84 on Friday, but added 0.46 last week to 90.78. It reached an all-time record high on Thursday at 93.09. It remains Overbought.<\/p>\n

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long term Barometer dropped 1.84 to 76.96 on Friday, but gained 2.31 last week to 76.96. It remains Overbought.<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Disclaimer: <\/b>Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at <\/em><\/p>\n

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Bottom Line Volatility spiked in U.S. equity markets on Friday mainly due to the increasing military conflict between Israel and Iran. The VIX Index moved above 20%. Weakness in the U.S. Dollar to a three year low also contributed to U.S. stock market weakness. Investment dollars are moving away from the U.S. Economic focus […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-186721","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/186721","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=186721"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/186721\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":186722,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/186721\/revisions\/186722"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=186721"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=186721"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=186721"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}