{"id":190152,"date":"2025-11-02T14:23:34","date_gmt":"2025-11-02T19:23:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/?p=190152"},"modified":"2025-11-03T08:46:34","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T13:46:34","slug":"tech-talk-for-monday-november-3rd-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timingthemarket.ca\/techtalk\/2025\/11\/02\/tech-talk-for-monday-november-3rd-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Talk for Monday November 3rd 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-opening Comments for Monday November 3rd<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning<\/b>. S&P 500 futures were up 16 points at 8:30 AM EST.<\/em><\/p>\n

December crude oil futures<\/b> advanced $0.34 to $61.32 per barrel after OPEC+ announced plans to pause oil output hikes in the first quarter of 2026 following a modest boost in December.<\/em><\/p>\n

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New Gold<\/b> is expected to open higher after Coeur Mining offered to acquire the company for 0.4959 Coeur shares. Value of the offer is US$8.51 (Cdn$11.95).<\/em> <\/p>\n

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Kenvue<\/b> advanced $2.74 to $17.11 after Kimberly Clark offered to acquire the company in a deal valued at $48.7 billion.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Iren <\/b>gained $12.95 to $73.70 after signing a $9.7 billion contract with Microsoft.<\/em><\/p>\n

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EquityClock\u2019s Market Outlook for November 3rd<\/sup><\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n

The S&P 500 Index has averaged a return of 2.1% in November over the past 50 years with 74% of periods showing a positive result. See:<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

https:\/\/equityclock.com\/2025\/11\/01\/stock-market-outlook-for-november-3-2025\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Technical Scoop for November 3rd<\/sup><\/font> from David Chapman and <\/strong><\/font><\/em>www.EnrichedInvesting.com<\/strong><\/font><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/enrichedinvesting.com\/library\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

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The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Will U.S. and Canadian indices follow their traditional pattern of moving higher this year from November until the first week in January (i.e. the so called Christmas rally season)?<\/b><\/p>\n

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Performance this year in the U.S. has been dominated by the top 10 U.S. stocks in the S&P 500 Index<\/b> with their<\/b> heavy weight in the Technology sector<\/b>. The qualification this year is that positive performance by the top ten S&P 500 stocks (Over 55% of the weight in the S&P 500 Index) must continue this November\/early January for history to repeat.<\/p>\n

What about performance of the remaining 490 stocks in the S&P 500 Index?<\/b> History shows that the equal weight S&P 500 Index ETF (RSP) also has a period of seasonal strength from November to the first week in January. However, its performance depends upon advances by the remaining 490 stocks.<\/p>\n

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Recent performance by the equal weight S&P 500 Index and related ETF (RSP) has been less than spectacular:<\/b> Indeed, RSP broke below its 20 and 50 day moving averages late last week. The ETF closed on Friday below closing levels set in the third week in August.<\/p>\n

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Early technical weakness by Sector SPDRs other than Technology SPDRs (XLK) raises doubts about possibility of a significant yearend rally this year<\/b>. Indeed, several select sector SPDRs recorded a drop in technical score last week including Materials, Industrials, Financials, Health Care and Real Estate.<\/p>\n

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies<\/strong><\/font> <\/p>\n

Source: www.factset.com<\/a><\/p>\n

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Analyst earnings and revenue estimates increased significantly again last week thanks to \u201cblow out\u201d earnings released by Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple and Amazon: <\/b>64% of S&P 500 companies have reported to date: 83% exceeded consensus earnings estimates and 79% exceeded consensus revenue estimates.<\/p>\n