Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday August 20th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 3 points at 8:30 AM EDT.
The Canadian Dollar was unchanged at US 73.40 cents following release of Canada’s July Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a 0.3% increase versus a 0.1% decline in June. Actual was a 0.4% increase. Consensus on a year-over-year basis was a 2.5% increase versus a 2.7% gain in June. Actual was a 2.5% increase.
Palo Alto Networks advanced $7.19 to $350.55 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal fourth quarter revenues and earnings. The company also offered positive guidance.
Monster Beverages added $0.49 to $47.09 after announcing a $500 million share buyback program.
Amer Sports gained $0.65 to $13.00 after offering a favourable outlook.
Johnson & Johnson added $0.27 to $159.90 after winning FDA approval for a lung cancer treatment.
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for August 20th
End-of-summer seasonal positivity in a position to support stocks surrounding the last long weekend of summer. See:
https://equityclock.com/2024/08/19/stock-market-outlook-for-august-20-2024/
Technical Notes
S&P/TSE 60 Index moved above 1,386.40 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
BMO Equal Weight Canadian Banks ETF $ZEB.TO moved above Cdn$37.19 extending an intermediate uptrend.
TSX Gold iShares $XGD.TO moved above Cdn$22.98 to a four year high extending an intermediate uptrend.
U.S. broker iShares $IAI moved above $125.06 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks moving to an all-time high included Berkshire Hathaway, Altria, AbbVie, Check Point, Coca Cola Euro-Pacific and MercadoLibre
National Bank $NA.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$117.54 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Agnico Eagle Mines $AEM a TSX 60 stock moved above US$80.05 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Fortis $FTS.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$59.54 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August19th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 19th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August19th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
August Seasonality & Sentiment Signal Turning Point: TheTechnicalTraders
August Seasonality & Sentiment Signal Turning Point – YouTube
Markets expect Powell’s language to be dovish on rate cuts: Economist
Markets expect Powell’s language to be dovish on rate cuts: Economist – YouTube
7-Eleven Owner Gets $31 Billion Buyout Offer
7-Eleven Owner Gets $31 Billion Buyout Offer – YouTube
The Fed’s Next Move: What to Expect from Powell’s Speech: Guy Adami, Dan Nathan, Liz Young
The Fed’s Next Move: What to Expect from Powell’s Speech – YouTube
Traders should beware another pullback ahead, expert says Vance Howard
Traders should beware another pullback ahead, expert says – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 4.20 to 73.20. It remains Overbought. Daily uptrend was extended.
The long term Barometer added 1.60 to 75.40. It remains Overbought. Daily uptrend was extended.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.44 to 68.58. It remains Overbought. Daily trend was extended.
The long term Barometer dropped 1.33 to 74.34. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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August 20th, 2024 at 11:14 am
The market is extended and we are seeing a little weakness this morning. It’s not a bad time to raise some cash and look for lower levels to buy at over the next month. Guru Cramer has been sounding the alarm.
August 20th, 2024 at 1:38 pm
XLF – Really interesting triple top chart. Does it break resistance here or reverse first?
August 20th, 2024 at 2:58 pm
Cramer is a trader at heart and his experience and spider senses are tingling, a pullback to correction are likely in the cards soon.
August 20th, 2024 at 3:19 pm
Larry/ON
Re XLF: I see what you mean. Here is a daily chart showing the triple top resistance with lots of bearish divergences including lower volume (pink lines) as well as a relative strength break down vs SPY (pink circle). But it doesn’t have to be the end of the world. Could just be retest of the recent low ~ 40.66 or maybe put more of a scare into the market and go down to the 200EMA, currently ~ 39.81.
https://schrts.co/uQZuVipV
August 20th, 2024 at 3:46 pm
Paula I like the rising 200 day MA on XLF. IMO odds are quite high that it eventually makes new highs but I’m thinking we first make some partial retracement of this last rally. This market, however, has an uncanny ability to make fools out of all of us. I probably end up being wrong and this rally continues sucking more stock chasing money before finally pulling the rug out later than you think. I’m at a loss here on having any certain opinion but the great Guru Cramer says it’s overextended. I think what it is is the advance taking place over such a short period of time.
August 20th, 2024 at 6:18 pm
Larry/ON,
Thanks for the reply. I agree that the market has an uncanny ability to make fools out of all of us. I think this applies to Cramer as well. I do not consider him to be a guru but people like to listen to him, which I don’t understand. I believe it is best to let the chart tell the story rather than a person, no matter how famous or followed.
August 20th, 2024 at 8:19 pm
Paula – Cramer was all charts tonight courtesy of “the Legendary Larry Williams”. There’s nothing new there however to call for a mid-October low. It’s just a re-hash of what everyone knows happens seasonally. So, the call is for a drop, a relief rally ending Sept 14 and then then a drop to the Oct low. Williams doesn’t offer what the magnitude will be of a drop.
I viewed David Burrows weekly call today. Diana Avigdor was talking about the increasing size of Quant Funds that have money from all over including pension fund money. They have fund mandates that dictate that if the volatility index goes over a certain number they must sell off a portion of their holdings. That wasn’t just the Japanese carry trade that we saw. On the other side they are buying automatically if the volatility index goes down to a certain level. This is helping exaggerate swings. We do also have a very large amount of company committed share buy backs to take place before year end that will support the market. They total 960 billion this year with 42% yet to be completed.