Pre-opening Comments for Friday January 10th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 60 points at 8:35 AM EST
U.S. equity index futures plunged 62 points following release of the U.S. December Employment Report at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for December Non-farm Payrolls was a gain of 150,000 from downwardly revised 212,000 in November. Actual was a 256,000 gain. Consensus for the December Unemployment Rate was unchanged from November at 4.2%. Actual was a drop to 4.1%. Consensus for December Average Hourly Earnings was an increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% gain in November. Actual was a 0.3% gain. On a year-over-year basis, consensus for December Average Hourly Earnings was unchanged at a 4.0% increase. Actual was a 3.9% increase.
The Canadian Dollar dropped 0.11 to US69.27 cents following release of the November employment report. Consensus was an employment increase of 25,000. Actual was an increase of 91,000. Consensus for the November Unemployment Rate was an increase of 0.1 to 6.9%. Actual was a decrease of 0.1 to 6.7%.
Constellation Energy advanced $21.66 to $265.50 after announcing a deal to purchase Calpine for $26.6 billion.
![clip_image001[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/clip_image0014-2.png "clip_image001[4]")
Property insurance stocks offering fire insurance coverage in the Los Angeles area were sharply lower. Allstate dropped $11.86 to $179.94, Chubb dropped $9.15 to $257.50 and Travelers dropped $10.27 to $232.50.
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/clip_image0024-3.png "clip_image002[4]")
![clip_image003[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/clip_image0034-2.png "clip_image003[4]")
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for January 10th
Last year, both initial and continued jobless claims showed the highest level for the end of December since 2020, showing an abnormal calendar year increase that is reminiscent of a pre-recessionary period. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/01/08/stock-market-outlook-for-january-10-2025/
Technical Notes
Global Water Index ETF $CGW moved below $53.82 and $53.34 extending an intermediate downtrend.
eBay $EBAY a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $67.52 extending an intermediate uptrend.
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks that broke below support extending an intermediate downtrend included Data General on a move below $71.56, Home Depot on a move below $379.72, Lowe’s on a move below 244.00, Cognizant on a move below $75.16 and American International Group on a move below $69.97.
TSX 60 stocks breaking below support extending an intermediate downtrend included Bank of Nova Scotia on a move below Cdn$74.88, Sun Life Financial on a move below Cdn$83.76 and Saputo on a move below Cdn$24.78.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 8th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 8th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 8th and January 9th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Chart of the Day: TSX Composite Index
Technical score increased from 2 to 6 after strength relative to the S&P 500 improved to Positive from Neutral and the Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Includes chart for January 9th. Seasonal influences are Positive until March 3rd
Links offered by valued providers
THIS is the BEST Market Sector Right Now! Julius de Kempenaer
THIS is the BEST Market Sector Right Now! – YouTube
Equity market risks in 2025: Brian Madden
Equity market risks in 2025 – YouTube
Walser: Global Pullback Coming, U.S. Under Trump 2.0 & the "Debt Spiral"
Walser: Global Pullback Coming, U.S. Under Trump 2.0 & the "Debt Spiral" – YouTube
What a new government will mean for the loonie
What a new government will mean for the loonie – YouTube
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson Expects Choppy First Half of 2025
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson Expects Choppy First Half of 2025 – YouTube
This year will be about AI software and power, says iCapital’s Anastasia Amoroso
This year will be about AI software and power, says iCapital’s Anastasia Amoroso – YouTube
Top Five Stocks and ETFs I’m Watching in Q1 2025! David Keller
Top Five Stocks and ETFs I’m Watching in Q1 2025! – YouTube
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Wednesday 1/8/25
$TSX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added another 1.80 to 26.20. It remains Oversold. Daily trend has turned up.
The long term Barometer added 1.40 to 55.20. It remains Neutral.
P.S. The short term (20 day) Barometer added another 5.00 to 32.00 after bottoming at 7.80 on December 19th
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 2.24 to 40.36. It returned to Neutral from Oversold on a recovery above 40.00.
The long term Barometer added 0.45 to 66.37. It remains Overbought.
P.S. Short term (20 day) Barometer added 2.69 to 44.39. It remains Neutral.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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January 10th, 2025 at 9:56 am
We are very close to having SPX and QQQ break their December lows. The employment report came in hot and the 10 year yield is going higher. No rate cut for you! Sell Sell Sell.
January 10th, 2025 at 10:49 am
$CAD – It’s been holding for the last three weeks but the declining 20 day MA has been dropping to meet it. It looks like it is ready for a new drop lower particularly on events in the US keeping a lid on any interest rate cuts while Canada is a sack of (whatever) and needs lower rates in addition to facing Orange Man who wants to do us harm. I have no idea what the spike on Wednesday was for CAD that has reversed. Looking at a chart going back to 2010 the CAD to US spread on the 10 year bond is way higher than it has ever been. Eventually you get a bottom on CAD and some reversal but I don’t think we are anywhere near that.
January 10th, 2025 at 12:23 pm
If the S&P closes here, i.e. below 5850, looks like there is more downside to 5670. I can imagine we get there sometime in the next 2 weeks even though we are in the heat of earnings season given the upcoming change in the US. So short term looking very depressing. However, once we hit the upcoming low given there is lots of put protection in place and the market VIX is looking benign expect we will return to an uptrend given the economy and earning remain in a strong position (so not entering a bear market). So another shake out before moving higher. The theme financials continue to outperform (in this case lose less than the market) so look to still be the place to be invested in as well as gold.
January 10th, 2025 at 2:47 pm
Bman/Van – I’m not a pro technician but I am now seeing that SPX tagged the 100 day MA and is staying above it. In any case you can start to see the formation of a downward trading channel on QQQ and SPY over the past five weeks with lower highs and lower lows. We are right at the support area where the market gapped in November. RSI is not washed out yet. It’s at 40 and we need 30 to really declare SPY oversold and the last time it did that was in early August. I like your remark on gold. GLD has put in a nice bottom. It’s coming up to some short-term resistance around 251 but the rising 50 day MA has been good support and it’s squeezing it higher over time.
January 10th, 2025 at 3:31 pm
Larry/ON and Bman/Van
Mention of gold got my attention. I currently own AEM and have traded it a number of times over the last year. I regretted every time I sold it and had to buy it back, usually at a higher price. I own it in USD and that also makes it easier to compare it to GLD and GDX. It has been outperforming and GDX since mid-October. Its performance relative to GLD is more about par but I would still own it since there is a dividend.
https://schrts.co/FuwUuevY