Pre-opening Comments for Thursday November 21st
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 31 points at 8:35 AM EST.
S&P 500 futures added 8 points following release of the November Philly Fed Index at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was 6.3, down from 10.3 in October. Actual was -5.5
Nvidia dropped $2.44 to $143.45 despite reporting higher than consensus third quarter results and despite positive fourth quarter guidance. However, fourth quarter guidance was slightly less than consensus.
![clip_image001[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/clip_image0014-2.png "clip_image001[4]")
Snowflake advanced $23.85 to $152.97 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter revenues. The company also offered positive fourth quarter guidance.
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/clip_image0024-2.png "clip_image002[4]")
Dream Finders Homes added $2.27 to $30.18 following its selection to join the S&P SmallCap 600 Index.
![clip_image003[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/clip_image0034-2.png "clip_image003[4]")
Deere advanced $5.24 to $410.20 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal fourth quarter earnings.
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for November 21st
Consumer loan activity remains depressed and this remains a burden on the housing market. See:
https://equityclock.com/2024/11/20/stock-market-outlook-for-november-21-2024/
Response to article “Timing the Market is for Suckers” released in the National Post on November 20th 2024
The following comment was emailed to letters@nationalpost.com
The article is biased against investors who use “timing the market” strategies to outperform equity markets. None of the best known Canadian proponents for market timing strategies were interviewed for the article including Hap Sneddon, president of Castlemoore, Jon Vialoux, author of the daily blog www.EquityClock.com, Brooke Thackray, seasonality analyst at Horizons and myself, daily author of the free blog: www.timingthemarket.ca “Timing the market” is not for everyone. It requires a disciplined approach including identification of securities with timely seasonal and technical momentum characteristics and including the use of prudent money management skills to minimize risk.
Don Vialoux
Author of the free daily blog: www.timingthemarket.ca
Past President of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts
Technical Notes
Target $TGT an S&P 100 stock moved below $130.45 to $164.20 extending an intermediate downtrend. Responded to lower than consensus third quarter results!
Natural Gas ETN $UNG moved above intermediate resistance at US$14.53. Canadian equivalent $HUN.TO also was notably higher. Responded to colder than average weather (including a snow storm) in mid-Canada and U.S.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for November 20th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 20th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 20th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Be ALERT for Warning Signs – S&P 500 Downturn: Joe Rabil
Be ALERT for Warning Signs – S&P 500 Downturn – YouTube
S&P 500 will hit 7,500 by 2026: Strategist
S&P 500 will hit 7,500 by 2026: Strategist – YouTube
Evercore’s Emanuel Sees S&P 500 at 6,600 by Mid-2025
Evercore’s Emanuel Sees S&P 500 at 6,600 by Mid-2025 – YouTube
The State of Retail Investing with Robinhood’s Steve Quirk
The State of Retail Investing with Robinhood’s Steve Quirk – YouTube
Bitcoin hits new record near $95,000 as investors monitor Trump transition: CNBC Crypto World
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Wednesday 11/20/24
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWRv9o_hoFk
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 1.80 to 55.80. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer added 0.80 to 69.60. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.27 to 58.90. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.58 to 72.15. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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November 21st, 2024 at 5:28 am
1. Nat Post has become a conspiracy theory rag like Fox (Not) News. Even Dave “Wrong for 20 years” Rosenberg has gone full blown conspiratorial Good for Jon and Hap for fighting back
2. Orange Clown’s Tarriff policy will ruin US economy. Two thirds of economy is consumer focussed. 75-77% of Walmart, Amazon & Target SKU’s are from China. I wonder if TGT’s miss yesterday is a warning shot or isolated to company specific. Many people say this administration uses threats as a bargaining tactic however they seem intent on enacting mass deportations & controlling the DOJ
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/19/walmart-says-new-trump-tariffs-could-raise-prices.html
3. Probably time to use cash as a hedge – shorting is too risky for my blood
November 21st, 2024 at 5:19 pm
NVDA – The market couldn’t figure out what do and the trade popped, dropped, popped and then softened but closed higher. You can’t ignore price targets being raised across the board and I take that as a a signal to hold some stock. We may get more volatility with Nov 22 calls expiring tomorrow but I think there will be buying on any weakness. NVDA helps to give a bullish signal to not only tech but the market in general. If the stock had fallen apart we could have had a wide sell-off. I like the rise of SPX off the 20 day MA and the new high on XLF.