Pre-opening Comments for Friday December 13th 2024
U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. D&P 500 futures were up 23 points at 8:30 AM EST.
Donald Trump’s victory in the November elections, the prospect of interest rate cuts and record inflows into U.S. stock markets have put the S&P 500 index on course for a ‘Santa rally’ in the final few trading sessions of 2025, Goldman Sachs’ leading technical strategist has said. See:
Broadcom advanced $8.69 to $189.25 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter results. The company also raised its quarterly dividend by 11%.
![clip_image001[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/clip_image0014-3.png "clip_image001[4]")
Costco dropped $4.39 to $984.00 after reporting slightly less than consensus fiscal first quarter revenues
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/clip_image0024-4.png "clip_image002[4]")
RH advanced $70.78 to $452.16 after offering positive fourth quarter guidance
![clip_image003[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/clip_image0034-2.png "clip_image003[4]")
EquityClock’s stock market outlook for December 13th
Initial claims surged last week to the highest level for the start of December since 2020, amidst the pandemic. See:
https://equityclock.com/2024/12/12/stock-market-outlook-for-december-13-2024/
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks
Don Vialoux is a guest on Michael Campbell’s weekly show to be released at 8:30 AM Vancouver Time this Saturday (11:30 AM EST). Topic is “Stock Market Outlook for 2025”. Link is Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Technical Notes
Steel ETF $SLX moved below $67.86 completing a double top pattern.
U.S. Healthcare Providers iShare $IHF move below $50.16 extending an intermediate downtrend.
CVS Health $CVS an S&P 100 stock moved below $51.61 extending an intermediate downtrend.
DR Horton $DHI an S&P 100 stock moved below $155.62 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Match Group $MTCH a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $30.06 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Rogers Communications $RCI.B.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$47.75 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for December 12th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for December 12th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 12th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
2025 economic outlook for Canada: Beata Caranci, Toronto Dominion Bank economist
2025 economic outlook for Canada – YouTube
Top investing strategies for 2025: Lyle Stein
Top investing strategies for 2025 – YouTube
Goldman’s Kostin on Stock Market Outlook, Investment Strategy
Goldman’s Kostin on Stock Market Outlook, Investment Strategy – YouTube
Citi’s outlook for commodities in 2025: Max Layton
Citi’s outlook for commodities in 2025 – YouTube
‘Unbelievably Nasty Downturn’ In Q1: Gareth Soloway On Best And Worst Assets Of 2025
‘Unbelievably Nasty Downturn’ In Q1: Gareth Soloway On Best And Worst Assets Of 2025 – YouTube
TSX/CGF International Oil and Gas Day: Josef Schachter presentation.
PowerPoint Presentation (schachterenergyreport.ca)
TSLA Leads the Charge in Growth Stock Rally: Tom Bowley
TSLA Leads the Charge in Growth Stock Rally – YouTube
Chart Check on Big Banks: How to Trade into 2025: Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Carter Worth
Chart Check on Big Banks: How to Trade into 2025 – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 1.60 to 50.50. It remains Neutral. Daily downtrend was extended.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.40 to 67.40. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend was extended.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 6.39 to 53.42. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer dropped 2.28 to 70.32. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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December 13th, 2024 at 10:36 am
NVDA – I’ll keep posting to myself here. Really interesting how AVGO reports stellar guidance on AI related sales and is up 20% yet NVDA after being initially up a little in sympathy later has turned negative intraday. Put another checkmark on the list of bad trading signs for NVDA.
BCE – Look out below! There must be a tax loss selling frenzy going on.
XLF – Lingering below the 20 day MA and weak. Banks selling off and if someone knows why I would like to hear it.
Positive – Fund flows into mutual funds and ETFs are very high which is great for the overall market. QQQ
December 13th, 2024 at 2:30 pm
Larry
To me it looks like many parts of the market are selling down this week, financials included. Expect many people are harvesting their gains/losses. However, if this continues beyond the end of next week then that would make me suspect something else is afoot. Overall volume on the TSX and NASDAQ have been average to better than average, but S&P 500 has been trending lower. So definity some mixed signals.
December 13th, 2024 at 10:56 pm
The $UST10Y-$UST3M, https://schrts.co/PmbHnkIK , has finally popped above ZERO.
December 13th, 2024 at 11:27 pm
Thanks Bman/Van – Apparently the second week of December tends to be weak and markets tend to rally in the second half of the month. I think financials got a little lofty and there was some rotation into tech over the last two weeks. SPX was a little soft this week but we are talking less than 1% for the week so really just a bit of sideways churn but with that movement out of financials and into tech. Energy, materials and industrials have also been weak for two weeks.
David – Good chart. Inverted yield curve days are over.