Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday March 4th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 45 points at 8:30 AM EST.
President Trump speaks to a joint Congress tonight at 9:00 PM EST.
American Express added $0.39 to $295.88 after raising its quarterly dividend by 17%.
![clip_image001[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/clip_image0014.png "clip_image001[4]")
Okta advanced $11.65 to $99.00 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter results. The company also offer positive guidance for fiscal 2026.
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/clip_image0024.png "clip_image002[4]")
Mosaic slipped $0.20 to $23.13 despite an upgraded on the stock by JP Morgan.
![clip_image003[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/clip_image0034.png "clip_image003[4]")
Walgreens Boots added $0.48 to $10.74 in anticipation of a takeover offer.
![clip_image004[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/clip_image0044.png "clip_image004[4]")
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for March 4th
Cryptocurrency market testing some critical levels that will put the bull market trend of the past couple of years to the test. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/03/03/stock-market-outlook-for-march-4-2025/
Technical Notes
United Kingdom iShares $EWU moved above $37.10 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Financial SPDRs $XLF briefly moved above $52.26 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Invesco Solar ETF $TAN moved below $31.99 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Oil Services ETF $OIH moved below $255.69 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Weakness in U.S. equity indices was led by NVidia $NVDA on a break below support at $113.01 extending an intermediate downtrend.
S&P/TSX Energy iShares $XEG.TO moved below Cdn$16.13 and Cdn$15.93 extending an intermediate downtrend. Suncor $SU.TO led the decline by completing a double to pattern on a move below Cdn$52.70
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 3rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 3rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 3rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
The market could be bottoming this week, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee
The market could be bottoming this week, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee – YouTube
Jobs Report Preview & Ray Dalio’s Debt Crisis Warning: Guy Adami, Dan Nathan, Liz Thomas
Jobs Report Preview & Ray Dalio’s Debt Crisis Warning – YouTube
Retrenchment healthy for bull market: strategist, Sam Stoval
Retrenchment healthy for bull market: strategist – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 7.00 to 48.20. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer dropped 2.80 to 57.20. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Daily trend is down.
TSX Momentum Barometers
Intermediate term Barometer dropped 6.36 to 41.36. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer dropped 4.09 to 54.55, a 13 month low. It remains Neutral. Daily trend is down.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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March 4th, 2025 at 11:07 am
Trump is playing with fire economically. Andrew Coyne’s opinion pieces in the Globe have been quite depressing about what is yet to come from Trump. I think the only hope now is for the bigger players in the US business community to pressure Trump the cease what he is doing to prevent catastrophe. We could see popular discontent but it may take time and his base is nihilistic and out of touch with reality. I like Ford’s 25% export tax on electricity and the threat to cut it off altogether on April 2nd if Trump ramps tariffs further. You also have nickel and potash imports to the US which are absolutely crucial to US manufacturing and agriculture which Canada can use as leverage.
March 4th, 2025 at 2:56 pm
RE: Larry
Trump is proving to be more problematic to the markets this time around.
I saw his commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick on CNBC say that tariffs are good and do not cause inflation. He also said it would be a good idea for GM and Ford to close auto plants in Canada and Mexico and bring back jobs to the USA. Even his cabinet members are aligned with Trump’s plan.
March 4th, 2025 at 3:37 pm
Larry / Neil
The only item I am confident on at the moment is Trump will continue to cause chaos and inject uncertainty and volatility into the market. This could be a long storm as in the next 4 years so one needs to be prepared for the “events” to last much longer than the market is predicting (less than 3 months). We are likely watching a real time black swan event unfold, S&P 500 below 5700 is the next target to see if it holds (I think no), which would potentially retrace back to 4800-5000. Hope everyone is prepared for this next wave.
March 4th, 2025 at 5:58 pm
Lutnick is saying the framework of an agreement may be announced as soon as tomorrow. This is nuts. I can see CAD is up sharply. Hopefully Trump doesn’t want this to drag on too long.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2025/03/04/lutnick-says-trump-considering-some-mexico-canada-tariff-relief/