The Bottom Line
North American equity markets are expected to trade in a relative narrow trading range this week: Frequency of significant quarterly earnings reports by large cap U.S. companies (with the exceptions of Nvidia’s report on Wednesday and Walmart’s report on Thursday) are winding down and frequency of reports by TSX 60 companies have past their peak.
Historically, The S&P 500 Index and the TSX Composite Index have been flat to slightly lower in the week in May following expiration of May listed equity and index options. Expiration this year was on Friday May 15th.
Watch out for “Witches’ Hangover” in U.S. equity markets, the trading day after expiration of monthly listed equity, index and index futures options (i.e. Monday May 18th this year). A brief dip in U.S. equity indices frequently occurs when indices record a drop on “Triple Witching Day” (i.e. May 15th this year)
Earnings and Revenue Consensus for S&P 500 Companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analysts increased their 2026 earnings and revenue estimates again last week: 91% of companies have reported quarterly results to date: 84% have reported higher than consensus earnings and 80% have reported higher than consensus revenues.
- Consensus for first quarter 2026 called for a 27.7% earnings gains, unchanged from last week. Revenue gains increased to 11.4% from 11.3%.
- Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 20.5% from 19.9% last week. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 11.4% from 11.2%.
- Consensus for third quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 23.6% from 23.2%.last week. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 10.1% from 9.9%.
- Consensus for fourth quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 21.1% from 20.7%. Revenue gains increased to 10.3% from 9.5%.
- For all of 2026, consensus for earnings gains increased to 21.5% from 21.0%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 10.3% from 10.1%.
Economic News This Week
Source: www.marketwatch.com
April U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected to drop to 1.40 million units from 1.50 million units in March.
May Philly Fed released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to drop to 18.0 from 26.7 in April.
May U.S. May Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to be unchanged at 48.2.
April Leading Economic Indicators released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday are expected to improve to -0.2 from -0.6 in March.
Selected Earnings Reports This Week
Source: Investing.com Canada – Stock Market Data and Financial News
First quarter U.S. earnings report season is winding down. Eighteen S&P 500 companies (including three Dow Jones Industrial Average companies: Home Depot, Walmart and Deere) are scheduled to report. One TSX 60 company is scheduled to report: CAE.
Monday: Baidu, Toll Brothers
Tuesday: Home Depot
Wednesday: Nvidia, Lowes, Intuit, Target, Hasbro, TJX Companies, Analog Devices
Thursday: Walmart, Deere, NetEase, Ross Stores, Take Two, Copart, Zoom, Workday, CAE
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 15th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 15th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 15th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes Last Week
Technical Notes
Utilities SPDRs (XLU) moved below $44.12 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern. Responded on Friday to a spike in yield by long term Treasuries! Yield on 10 year Treasuries spiked 13.4 basis points to 4.595%.
Global Timber iShares (WOOD) moved below $66.65 and $65.85 extending an intermediate downtrend.
PDD Holdings (PDD) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $95.37 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Paccar (PCAR) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $110.02 completing a double top pattern.
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for May 16th
https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/category/mikes-content/complete-show/
This Week in Money: Ross Clark, Josef Schachter, Mark Liebovit, Jim Willie
MARKET SHOCK: 4.5% Yield Spike Semiconductor Rug Pull: Verified Investing
MARKET SHOCK: 4.5% Yield Spike Semiconductor Rug Pull – YouTube
The Oil Supply Shock Investors May Be Missing Ninepoint Partners
The Oil Supply Shock Investors May Be Missing – YouTube
Key Takeaways from Trump’s China Visit & Fed’s Iran-Tied Inflation Woes
Key Takeaways from Trump’s China Visit & Fed’s Iran-Tied Inflation Woes – YouTube
The Recession has Begun, and Costco Proves It | Redefining Diversification feat. Paisley Nardini
This Market Rally Is Starting to Narrow: Mary Ellen McGonagle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3MSEnnuVV0
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – May 16, 2026
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FAJEdHWMeM
Why the S&P 500 Is In Short-Term Trouble: Tom Bowley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2F2ElZaN-0
5-Step Process to Trade with More Confidence: Tom Bowley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWG4K4yeBms
The Healthcare Sector May Be Turning Bullish — Here’s Why It Matters: Mary Ellen McGonagle
The Healthcare Sector May Be Turning Bullish — Here’s Why It Matters (stockcharts.com)
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped another 2.80 on Friday and 6.60 last week to 44.20. It remained Neutral. Daily downtrend was extended.
The short term (20 days) Barometer dropped 5.40 on Friday and dropped 7.20 last week to 36.00 to 36.00. It changed on Friday from Neutral to Oversold on a drop below 36.00. Daily downtrend was extended.
The long term Barometer dropped 2.60 on Friday and slipped 2.40 last week to 52.40. It remains Neutral. Daily downtrend was extended.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 6.82 on Friday and fell 5.45 last week to 55.45. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.
The short term (20 days) Barometer plunged 18.18 on Friday and dropped 20.00 last week. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.
The long term Barometer dropped 4.09 on Friday and dropped 6.36 last week to 69.55. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications