The Bottom Line
U.S. and Canadian equity indices have entered their traditional summer period from the third week in July until the first week in October when daily price volatility is higher than average, but gains and losses during the period are below average. Highs for the TSX Composite and S&P 500 historically are reached in mid-September and lows are reached in early October. Greater daily price volatility occurs when institutional trading activity in equity markets is lower than average during the summer holiday period and when retail trading activity has a higher than average influence. These trends are particularly dominant during U.S. mid-term Presidential election years (such as 2026). Daily price volatility in North American equity indices was extraordinarily high last week and is likely to remain high during the remaining summer period.
See 20 year seasonality chart for TSX at www.EquityClock.com
See 73 year mid-term Presidential cycle seasonality chart for Dow Jones Industrial Average at www.EquityClock.com
Earnings and Revenue Consensus for S&P 500 Companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analysts increased their 2026 earnings and revenue estimates slightly last week. Sixty one percent of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results to date.
- Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 47.4% from 37.9% last week. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 14.1% from 13.2%.
- Consensus for third quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 27.4% from 27.3%.last week. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 10.9%.
- Consensus for fourth quarter 2026 earnings increased to 25.2% from 24.9% last week. Consensus for revenue gains slipped to 10.6% from 10.5%.
- For all of 2026, consensus for earnings gains increased to 29.1% from 27.3 % last week. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 11.1% from 11.0%.
- For all of 2027, consensus for earnings gains dropped to 14.1% from 15.3% last week and consensus for revenue gains increased to 8.5% from 8.3%
Economic News This Week
Source: www.Marketwatch.com
July ISM Manufacturing released at 10:00 AM on Monday is expected to increase to 54.0 from 53.3 in June.
June Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.1% increase in May.
June U.S. Trade Deficit released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to slip to $73 billion from 77.6 billion in May.
June U.S. Factory Orders released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 1.3% drop in May.
July ISM Services released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase to 54.4 versus 54.0 in June.
July Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase 85,000 versus a 57,000 increase in June. July Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 4.3% from 4.2% in June. July Hourly Wages are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.3% gain in June.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Source: www.Marketwatch.com
Bolded names are TSX 60 companies
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for July 31st 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for July 31st 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for July 31st 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Notes for Friday
20+ year Treasury iShares (TLT) moved below $82.14 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Conversely, yield on 10 year Treasuries ($TNX) moved above 4.69% to an 18 month high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Changes Last Week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for August 1st
https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/category/mikes-content/complete-show/
Signal vs. Noise – What’s Really Happening in Oil Markets: Eric Nuttall
Signal vs. Noise – What’s Really Happening in Oil Markets – YouTube
KOSPI Soars 18%, SEMIs Extend Gains, Does Bull Bounce Have Legs? Trades & Analysis
Verified Investing
KOSPI Soars 18%, SEMIs Extend Gains, Does Bull Bounce Have Legs? Trades & Analysis – YouTube
Can Software Finally Get Out of the Penalty Box? Guy Adami and Dan Nathan
Can Software Finally Get Out of the Penalty Box? – YouTube
The Market Signals That Matter Most Right Now: BNN Bloomberg
The Market Signals That Matter Most Right Now – YouTube
Oz Disappoints: Danielle Park
Three Breadth Indicators That Could Decide the Next Market Move: David Keller
Three Breadth Indicators That Could Decide the Next Market Move (stockcharts.com)
Did You Notice? Canada Out of Recession: Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2026/07/did-you-notice-canada-out-of-recession-bob-hoye/
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 2.00 on Friday and fell 3.40 last week to 62.40. It remained Overbought. Daily trend has turned down.
The short term (20 days) Barometer dropped 3.60 on Friday and fell 1.60 last week to 53.60. It remained Neutral. Daily trend has turned down.
The long term Barometer dropped 1.20 on Friday and added 1.20 last week to 68.00. It remained Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 3.40 on Friday and fell 6.59 last week to 52.05. It remained Neutral
The short term (20 days) Barometer dropped 12.07 on Friday and fell 17.52 last week to 43.84. It changed last week from Overbought to Neutral. Daily trend turned down
The long term Barometer dropped 1.08 on Friday and added 1.20 last week to 62.56. It remained Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications