The Bottom Line
Will history repeat? U.S. equity indices have a history of moving lower between the third week in August and the end of September during U.S. Presidential Mid-term Election years. Average drop per period by the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1950 was 2.1%.
Highlight event during the period this year is the Jackson Hole Symposium from August 27th to August 29th when new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to comment on the FOMC’s interest rate outlook.
U.S. Economic News This Week
Source: www.MarketWatch.com
August Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday is expected to slip to 12.0 from 15.6 in July.
July U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to slip to 1.3 million units from 1.4 million units in June.
July U.S. Industrial Production released at 9:15 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.1% increase in June. July U.S. Capacity Utilization is expected to increase to 76.4% from 76.1% in June.
Minutes to the July FOMC meeting are released at 2:00 AM EDT on Wednesday.
August Philly Fed Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to drop to 25.0 from 41.4 in July.
July U.S. Leading Indictors released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday are expected to be unchanged versus a 0.2% drop in June.
Selected Quarterly Earnings News This Week
Source: www.MarketWatch.com
Earnings focuses this week are on the large U.S. retail merchandisers: Home Depot on Tuesday, Lowe’s, Target and TJX Companies on Wednesday and Walmart and Ross Stores on Thursday.
Changes Last Week
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 14th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 14th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 14th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Notes for Friday
Oil & Gas SPDRs (XOP) moved above $180.50 and $180.78 resetting an intermediate uptrend.
Volatility Index ($VIX) dropped 0.38% to a 2026 low at 14.25%.
Copart (CPRT) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $31.42 setting an intermediate uptrend.
Walmart (WMT) a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $116.03 setting an intermediate uptrend. The company reports third quarter results on Thursday.
Saputo (\SAP.TO) a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$44.87 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for August 15th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Gold’s Breakout Faces One Final Test: Dave Keller
Gold’s Breakout Faces One Final Test – YouTube
Retail Sales Shock, Signal No September Rate Hike, Markets Keep Surging, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin: Verified Investing
Tom Lee: S&P 8,000, Then a 10% Pullback: Tom Lee
Tom Lee: S&P 8,000, Then a 10% Pullback – YouTube
Gold Has Been in Bull Market for 25 Years, Wilson Says
Gold Has Been in Bull Market for 25 Years, Wilson Says – YouTube
Strong Index Returns & the Mask of Internal Churn | Market Snapshot, August 2026: Liz Ann Sonders
Strong Index Returns & the Mask of Internal Churn | Market Snapshot, August 2026 – YouTube
Cem Karsan Says the Flows Holding This Market Up Peak Monday. Here Is What Happens After.
Cem Karsan Says the Flows Holding This Market Up Peak Monday. Here Is What Happens After. – YouTube
Why September is the worst month of the year for the stock market: Mark Hulbert
Why September is the worst month of the year for the stock market – MarketWatch
This Week in Money: Ross Clark, Martin Straith, Josef Schachter
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term (50 days) Barometer added 1.00 on Friday and gained 4.00 last week to 70.40. It remained Overbought.
The short term (20 days) Barometer slipped 1.20 on Friday and gained 3.40 last week to 68.00. It remained Overbought.
The long term (200 days) Barometer slipped 0.20 on Friday and gained 1.20 last week to 74.40. It remained Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term (50 days) Barometer added 0.69 on Friday and gained 2.28 last week to 66.21. It remained Overbought. Daily trend is up.
The short term (20 days) Barometer added 2.74 on Friday and gained 7.76 to 64.38. It changed last week from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00.
The long term (200 days) Barometer added 0.46 on Friday and gained 0.46 last week to 71.69. It remained Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications