The Bottom Line
U.S. equity markets (Notably the S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF: RSP) are following their traditional pattern during the last quarter of the U.S. Mid-term Presidential Election Year: An intermediate low at the beginning of October followed by an uptrend lasting until at least the first week in January. Advances this year were triggered by strong year-over-year third and fourth quarter revenue and earnings gains by S&P 500 companies.
Canadian equity markets have a history of following closely the U.S. mid-term Presidential Election pattern. Since October 3rd, the TSX Composite Index has gained 2.08%.
Earnings and Revenue Consensus for S&P 500 Companies (from our last weekly report two weeks ago)Source: www.factset.com
Analysts mostly increased their 2026 earnings and revenue estimates during the past two weeks.
· Consensus for third quarter 2026 earnings gains slipped to 29.0% from 29.5%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 12.6% from 12.3%.
· Consensus for fourth quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 28.6% from 27.6%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 12.8% from12.2%.
· For all of 2026, consensus for earnings gains increased to 32.8% from 32.4%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 12.7% from 12.4%.
Consensus for earnings and revenue gains into 2027 also were increased from two weeks ago.
· For first quarter 2027, consensus for earnings gain increased to 19.3% from 19.1%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 11.6% from 11.1%
· For second quarter 2027, consensus for earnings gains increased to 2.8% from 2.3%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 7.7% from 7.3%
· For all of 2027, consensus for earnings gains increased to 16.0% from 15.8%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 9.5% from 9.3%.
Economic News Scheduled This Week
Source: www.Marketwatch.com
September U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to be unchanged from August at 1.3 million units.
September U.S. Leading Economic Indicators released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to slip 0.1%, unchanged from August
University of Michigan Consumer October Survey released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to slip to 46.3 from 48.1 in in September.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Source: www.Marketwatch.com
Seventy nine S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results (including five Dow Jones Industrial Average companies)
S&P 100 and Dow Industrial Average companies are bolded.
Trader’s Corner (Changes from October 2nd to October 16th)
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Commodities
Sectors
Changes Last Two Weeks
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for October 16th
October 16 Episode | Mike’s MoneyTalks (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Larry Williams’ Latest Episode
Larry Williams | Latest Episodes | StockCharts TV | StockCharts.com
AI Stocks Just Took a Hit. Here’s What’s Holding Up: Mary Ellen McGonagle
AI Stocks Just Took a Hit. Here’s What’s Holding Up – YouTube
Nobody Wants These Stocks. That’s Exactly Why I’m Watching Them: ValueTrendCanada
Nobody Wants These Stocks. That’s Exactly Why I’m Watching Them. – YouTube
Did Treasury Yields Just Top? The Stock Market Says YES!: Tom Bowley
Did Treasury Yields Just Top? The Stock Market Says YES! – YouTube
TODAY IN MONEY PODCAST FROM MARK LEIBOVIT
Mark Leibovit: Gold Shares More Profitable Than Owning Bullion – Oct. 15, 2026 – YouTube
Stock Market Bottom Signal? DeMark Indicators & Seasonal Rally Setup Market Outlook For Oct. 19th
Investors Panic On AI Trade Collapse, Oil Keeps Surging…Here Are The Trades For Next Week: Verified Investing
Investors Panic On AI Trade Collapse, Oil Keeps Surging…Here Are The Trades For Next Week – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer jumped 21.50 to 45.40 since October 2nd. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a move above 40.00. Daily uptrend was extended
The short term (20 days) Barometer jumped 42.00 to 68.60 since October 2nd. It changed from Oversold to Overbought on a move above 60.00. Daily uptrend was extended.
The long term Barometer advanced 9.20 to 54.60 since October 2nd. It remained Neutral. Daily uptrend was extended.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added jumped 15.81 to 45.58 since October 2nd. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a move above 40.00. Daily uptrend was extended.
The short term (20 days) Barometer jumped 22.79 to 56.74 since October 2nd. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a move above 40.00. Daily uptrend was extended.
The long term Barometer added 4.19 to 57.21 since October 2nd. It remained Neutral. Daily uptrend was extended.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications