The Bottom Line

World equity markets are expected to open lower following start of U.S. and Israel military attacks on Iran on Saturday and subsequent retaliation by Iran. The S&P 500 Index is expected to test short term support at 6,775.50 at the opening. U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETFs (e.g. PPA and ITA) are expected to test all-time highs at the opening.

Precious metal prices and related equities and ETFs (e.g., GDX in U.S. Dollars and XGD.TO in Canadian Dollars) are expected to open higher, extending all-time highs.

Crude Oil prices are expected to spike higher at the opening on concern that the Gulf of Hormuz could be blocked by Iran. For background, see:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03BKPdjLZNI

Higher gold and crude oil prices are expected to boost Canadian energy and precious metals equity and ETF prices at the opening.

According to www.EquityClock.com, the TSX Composite has a history of reaching a high for the year relative to the S&P 500 Index in the first week in March. Congratulations to investors who took advantage of the seasonal trade this year! From December 15^th, 2025 to February 27^th this year, the TSX Index gained 9.1% while the S&P 500 gained only 0.9%.

Earnings and Revenues Consensus for S&P 500 Companies

Source: www.factset.com

Analyst earnings and revenue estimates for the fourth quarter increased once again from two weeks ago: 96% of companies have reported quarterly results to date.

• Consensus for fourth quarter 2025 earnings gains was raised to 14.2% from 13.2% two weeks ago. Consensus for revenue growth increased to 9.4% from 9.0%. For all of 2025, consensus for earnings gains increased to 13.6% from 13.3%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 7.7% from 7.5%.
• Consensus for first quarter 2026 calls for an 11.4% earnings increase, up from an 11.1% increase two weeks ago. Revenue gains increased to 9.1% from 8.7%.
• Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 15.4% from14.9%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 8.3% from 7.9%.
• Consensus for third quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 16.2% from 15.6%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 7.6% from 7.3%.
• Consensus for fourth quarter 2026 earnings gains remained at 15.0%. Revenue gains increased to 7.5%
• For all of 2026, consensus for earnings gains increased to 14.7% from 14.4%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 7.7% from 7.5%.

Economic News This Week

February ISM Manufacturing Index released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday is expected to slip to 52.0 from 52.6 in January.

February ISM Services Index released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to slip to 53.5 from 53.8.

Beige Book is released at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday

Annualized Fourth Quarter U.S. Productivity released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to drop to 1.8% from 4.9% in the third quarter.

February Employment Report is released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday. February Non-farm Payrolls are expected to drop to 54,000 from 130,000 in January. February Unemployment Rate is expected to slip to 4.3% from 4.4% in January. February Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% increase in January. On a year-over-year basis, February Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 3.7%, unchanged from a 3.7% increase in January.

Selected Earnings News This Week

Ten S&P 500 companies and two TSX 60 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results this week.

* TSX 60 Companies are bolded

Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for February 27^th 2026

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for February 27^th 2026

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for February 27^th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Changes Last Week

Links offered by valued providers

Mike’s Money Talks for February 28^th

https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/category/mikes-content/complete-show/

What’s driving the decline in Canada’s GDP in Q4: BNN

What’s driving the decline in Canada’s GDP in Q4 – YouTube

Canadian economy contracts at a 0.6% annual rate in Q4: BNN

Canadian economy contracts at a 0.6% annual rate in Q4 – YouTube

The Dow Gains As Investors Go Conservative: Mark Leibovit

https://www.howestreet.com/2026/02/the-dow-gains-as-investors-go-conservative-mark-leibovit/

What Smart Investors Are Buying in This “Difficult” Market: Andrew Graham

What Smart Investors Are Buying in This “Difficult” Market – YouTube

Technical Notes for Friday

20+ U.S. Treasury Bond iShares (TLT) moved above $90.82 extending an intermediate uptrend. Conversely, yield on long term U.S. Treasuries dropped.

U.S. Real Estate iShares (IYR) moved above $100.14 extending an intermediate uptrend. Responding to lower long term U.S. interest rates

South Africa iShares (EZA) moved above $91.19 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

U.S. financials responded to a squeeze in spread between short term interest rate and long term interest rates. S&P Bank SPDRs (KBE) plunged 4.95%, American Express (AXP) a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $315.25 setting an intermediate downtrend. MetLife (MET) an S&P 100 stock moved below $71.07 setting an intermediate downtrend. Goldman Sachs (GS) a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $868.44 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 3.80 to 62.80. It remains Overbought.

The long term Barometer added 0.90 to 67.40. It remains Overbought.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 3.89 to 75.58. It remains Overbought.

The long term Barometer dropped 0.92 to 80.18. It remains Overbought.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

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