The Bottom Line
The battle between technical analysis and fundamental analysis was clearly won by technical analysis last week. U.S. fundamental analysts once again raised their 2026 earnings and revenue estimates significantly for S&P 500 companies. Despite an increasingly positive fundamental outlook, technical analysis prevailed: The S&P 500 broke below intermediate support at 6,521.92 and extended an intermediate downtrend.
In the short term U.S. and Canadian equity markets are deeply oversold: See short term momentum charts at the end of this report for background. .Only 13.40 % of S&P 500 stocks and 28.51% of TSX stocks are trading above their 20 day moving average. However, technical signs of a bottom have yet to arrive. Indeed, the VIX Index spiked to over 31% on Friday, implying that short term U.S. equity market risk has escalated.
History tells us that North American equity markets normally reach a seasonal low in the second half of March. This year, confirmation of a seasonal low has been delayed. Short term caution for traders continues to be advised until a technical low is confirmed.
Earnings and Revenues Consensus for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analysts increased their 2026 earnings and revenue gains again last week.
- Consensus for first quarter 2026 calls for a 13.0% earnings increase, up from an 12.5% last week. Revenue gains increased to 9.7% from 9.6%.
- Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 18.7% from17.8%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 9.2% from 9.0%.
- Consensus for third quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 20.8% from 18.8%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 8.8% from 8.2%.
- Consensus for fourth quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 19.0% from 18.1%. Revenue gains increased to 8.3% from 8.1%.
- For all of 2026, consensus for earnings gains increased to 17.1% from 16.3%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 8.6% from 8.3%
Economic News This Week
February U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.2% drop in January. Excluding auto sales, February Sales are expected to increase 0.3% versus no change in January.
January Business Inventories are released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday
March ISM Manufacturing Index released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to slip to 52.0 from 52.4 in February.
February U.S. Trade Deficit released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase to $61.7 billion from $54.5 billion in January.
March U.S. Employment is released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday. March Non-farm Payrolls are expected to increase 42,000 versus a 92,000 drop in February. March Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 4.5% from 4.4% in February. March Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% increase in February.
Selected Earnings Reports Scheduled This Week
Quiet week ahead! Focus is on Nike’s report on Tuesday.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 27th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 27th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 27th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes Last Week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for March 28th
https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/category/mikes-content/complete-show/
Oil to $97: Why The Market is IGNORING Trump! Investors In Panic!: Verified Investing
Oil to $97: Why The Market is IGNORING Trump! Investors In Panic! – YouTube
Market Call: Eric Nuttall’s outlook on Energy Stocks (March 26, 2026)
Market Call: Eric Nuttall’s outlook on Energy Stocks (March 26, 2026) – YouTube
The Iran War upends stocks: Headline fatigue and the ‘Trump Put’: CNBC
The Iran War upends stocks: Headline fatigue and the ‘Trump Put’ – YouTube
Iran Conflict: How Long, and How Bad? Goldman Sachs
Iran Conflict: How Long, and How Bad? – YouTube
Market Leadership Is Changing, Here’s Where to Look: Mary Ellen McGonagle
Market Leadership Is Changing, Here’s Where to Look – YouTube
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – March 28, 2026
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – March 28, 2026 – YouTube
Tightening Private Credit Bad Sign for Stock Markets: Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2026/03/tightening-private-credit-bad-sign-for-stock-markets-bob-hoye/
This week in money: Ross Clark, Victor Adair, The Aden Sisters
Technical Notes for Friday
Asia iShares (AIA) moved below $104.48 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.
Semiconductor ETF (SMH) moved below $374.24 and $374.16 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks breaking support setting intermediate downtrends included ..
Nvidia (NVDA) a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock on a move below $169.53 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock on a move below $264.24, Starbucks (SBUX) a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock on a move below $90.04 completing a double top pattern, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) on a move below $472.52 and $471.91, Trip.com (TCOM) on a move below$49.48 and DexCom (DXCM) on a move below $62.86.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 2.60 on Friday and fell 0.80 last week to 20.40. It remained Oversold. Daily downtrend was extended.
The short term Barometer dropped 4.00 on Friday, but added 0.40 last week to 13.40. It remained Oversold. Early signs of a bottom have appeared.
The long term Barometer dropped 4.00 on Friday and 1.20 last week to 44.00. It remains Neutral. Daily trend was extended on Friday.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 1.38 on Friday and slipped 0.09 last week to 30.32. It remains Oversold.
The short term Barometer dropped 1.81 on Friday, but gained 4.09 last week to 28.51. It remains Oversold.
The long term Barometer added 0.90 on Friday and gained 3.28 last week to 28.51. It remains Oversold.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
|
|
Equity Clock Publications