The Bottom Line
Is history for the S&P 500 Index about to repeat? The S&P 500 Index has a long history of entering into a brief corrective period between May 5th and the third week in June. The corrective phase is the basis for the phrase “Sell in May and Go Away”. Seasonal weakness during this period has been notable during U.S Mid-term Presidential Election Cycle years (such as this year).
The main reason for the corrective phase is profit taking following good news released at annual meetings including positive first quarter results and favourable updates projected for the following year
What about this year? This year is different: Analysts normally increase earnings and cash flow estimates following release of first quarter results and the issuing of favourable annual prospects. This year, analysts accelerated their quarterly and annual earnings and revenue increases for S&P 500 companies.
Earnings and Revenues Consensus for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analysts increased 2026 earnings and revenue estimates significantly last week: 63% of companies have reported quarterly results to date, 84% have reported higher than consensus earnings and 81% have reported higher than consensus revenues.
- Consensus for first quarter 2026 calls for a 27.1% earnings increase, up from a 15.1% increase last week. Revenue gains increased to 11.3% from 10.3%.
- Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 21.3% from 20.6%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 11.0% from 10.7%.
- Consensus for third quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 23.0% from 22.7%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 9.7% from 9.5%.
- Consensus for fourth quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 20.6% from 20.4%. Revenue gains increased to 9.7% from 8.5%.
- For all of 2026, consensus for earnings gains increased to 20.6% from 18.6%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 9.7% from 9.5%.
Economic News This Week
March U.S. Trade released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to be a $60.4 billion deficit versus a $57.3 billion deficit in February
February U.S. New Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to increase to 630.000 from 587,000 in January. March Sales are expected to increase to 660,000.
April ISM Services released at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to increase to 54.3 from 54.0 in March.
First quarter U.S. Productivity released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase 1.5% versus a 1.8% increase in the fourth quarter of 2025.
February U.S. Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday is expected to slip 0.1% versus a 0.3% drop in January. March spending is expected to increase 0.4%.
April U.S. Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to drop to 53,000 from 178,000 in March. April Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged from March at 4.3%. April Average Hourly Wages are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.2% increase in March. On a year-over-year basis, April Average Hourly Wages are expected to increase 3.8% versus a 3.5% increase in March.
March Wholesale Inventories released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday are expected to increase 1.4% versus a 0.8% increase in February.
May U.S. Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to slip to 49.5 from 49.8 in April.
Selected Earnings Report This Week
Another 126 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results this week (including three Dow Jones Industrial Average companies). Another 16 TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report.
Monday: Vertex, Palantir, Diamondback Energy, ON Technologies
Tuesday: AMD, Eaton, Pfizer, Anheuser Busch, Cummins, Suncor, American Electric Power, Occidental, Cameco, Rockwell Automation, PayPal, Archer Daniel Midland, Prudential, Dupont, IFF, Pitney Bowes
Wednesday: ARM, Walt Disney, Uber, CVS Health, Marriott, DoorDash, MetLife, Sun Life Financial, Restaurant Brands International, Nutrien, Fortis, KraftHeinz, Lundin Mining, CF Industries, Tourmaline Oil, TransAlta, Whirlpool
Thursday: Shell, McDonalds, Gilead, McKesson, Canadian Natural Resources, AirBNB, Monster Beverages, Republic Services, Core Weave, Wheaton Precious Metals, Microchip Technology, Data dog, Becton Dickenson, Pembina Pipelines, BCE, Open Text, Baytex Energy
Friday: Toyota, Enbridge, Emera, Brookfield Asset Management, Algonquin Power, Wendy’s
Bolded stocks are Canadian listed stocks.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 1st 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 1st 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 1st 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Notes for Friday
American Electric Power (AEP) an S&P 100 stock moved above $137.74 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Exel Energy (XEL) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $83.61 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Zoom (ZM) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $97.58 to a four year high extending an intermediate uptrend.
McDonalds (MCD) a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $288.69 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Changes Last Week
Links offered by valued providers
Money Talks with Michael Campbell for May 2nd. Feature guest is Jon Vialoux.
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Dan Ives: Tech Stocks Have 12–15% More Upside — His Top AI Buys Now
Dan Ives: Tech Stocks Have 12–15% More Upside — His Top AI Buys Now – YouTube
ChartWatchers | Before you “Sell in May,” check out this chart: StockCharts.com
Before You Sell in May, Check the Seasonality Chart (stockcharts.com)
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – May 2, 2026
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pg0i8P5naI0
Earnings Are Driving This Market, Here’s Where to Look: Mary Ellen McGonagle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KeooDL5nVNM
Trading Desk Notes for May 2, 2026: Victor Adair
https://www.howestreet.com/2026/05/trading-desk-notes-for-may-2-2026/
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.80 on Friday and added 2.00 last week to 54.80. It remains Neutral.
The short term (20 days) Barometer dropped 4.20 on Friday and dropped 4.40 last week to 55.80. It changed last week from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.20 on Friday and 2.40 last week to 57.80. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 1.36 on Friday and added 2.73 last week to 55.00. It remains Neutral.
The short term (20 days) Barometer dropped 0.45 on Friday and gained 16.82 last week to 55.91. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications